Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"
Bitcoin faces the risk of falling into a new bear market as a large number of Bitcoin price indicators show "bearish divergence."
In a social media discussion on March 27, Bitcoin commentators pointed out concerning signals emitted by Capriole Investments' Bitcoin macro index.
The founder stated that the decline in the Bitcoin macro index is "not good."
As BTC/USD struggles to return to near its all-time high, on-chain indicators are beginning to lose the advantages of a bull market.
The Bitcoin macro index, created by Capriole in 2022, utilizes machine learning to analyze a vast amount of indicator data. Founder Charles Edwards stated that these indicators "strongly indicate the relative value of Bitcoin in historical cycles."
"This model only considers on-chain data and macro market data. The uniqueness lies in the fact that price data and technical analysis are not used as input data," he explained when introducing the tool at the time.
Since the end of 2023, the index has shown lower highs while the price has created higher highs, forming a "bearish divergence." While this situation is common in previous bull markets, the possible implication is that BTC/USD has already formed a long-term peak.
"Not good," Edwards responded when retweeting a chart of the index uploaded by another user. "But… I won't fight it when the Bitcoin macro index turns positive."
Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @ATradeAcademy/X
Bitcoin price indicators struggle to recover
Various analytical sources conclude that Bitcoin is facing macroeconomic turmoil this year.
In a "Quicktake" blog post this week, the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant mentioned four on-chain indicators currently in a volatile state.
"All of these indicators suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility in the short to medium term," commented writer Burak Kesmeci. "However, none of the indicators suggest that Bitcoin has reached levels of overheating or cycle peaks."
Bitcoin IFP chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The list includes Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called Inter-Exchange Fund Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator, which turned bearish in February.
Kesmeci concluded that to change this situation, the IFP needs to return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
Related: Bitcoin price prediction market forecasts that Bitcoin will not exceed $138,000 by 2025
This article does not contain investment opinions or advice. Every investment and trading involves risks, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
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