Source: Cointelegraph Original: "{title}"

Bitcoin investors are preparing for a record $16.5 billion monthly options expiration on March 28. However, the actual market impact is expected to be more limited, as Bitcoin's drop below $90,000 has caught investors off guard and rendered many bullish positions ineffective.

This shift provides a key opportunity for Bitcoin bears, avoiding a potential $3 billion loss, a factor that could significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.

March 28 Bitcoin options open interest (USD). Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, the total open interest (OI) for call (buy) options is $10.5 billion, while the open interest for put (sell) options is $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of the call options are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin needs to rise 6.4% from its current price to make these options effective by the expiration on March 28. Therefore, the advantage of bullish bets is significantly weakened.

Bitcoin bulls hope for a "decoupling" when quantitative easing restarts.

Some analysts attribute Bitcoin's weak performance to the ongoing global tariff war and cuts in U.S. government spending, which increase the risk of an economic recession. Traders are concerned about slowing growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had propelled the S&P 500 to a record high on February 19, only to drop 7% afterward.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls still hope that Bitcoin can decouple from the stock market, although the 40-day correlation has remained above 70% since early March. Their optimism stems from central banks expanding the monetary base and companies like GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR) increasing Bitcoin adoption.

As the options expiration date approaches, both bulls and bears have strong incentives to influence Bitcoin's spot price. However, while bullish investors aim to break above $92,000, merely relying on optimism is insufficient to ensure Bitcoin surpasses this threshold. Deribit holds a 74% share of the options market, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 8.5% and Binance at 8%.

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls hold a strategic advantage as they approach the monthly options expiration date. For example, if Bitcoin remains at $86,500 by 8 AM UTC on March 28, only $2 billion worth of put options will be effective. This scenario would prompt bears to push Bitcoin's price below $84,000, thereby increasing the value of active put options to $2.6 billion.

Here are five possible scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but do not consider complex strategies such as selling put options for upside exposure.

Between $81,000 and $85,000: Call options (buy) are $2.7 billion, while put options (sell) are $2.6 billion. The net result leans towards call options, with an advantage of $100 million.

Between $85,000 and $88,000: Call options (buy) are $3.3 billion, while put options (sell) are $2 billion. The net result leans towards call options, with an advantage of $1.3 billion.

Between $88,000 and $90,000: Call options (buy) are $3.4 billion, while put options (sell) are $1.8 billion. The net result leans towards call options, with an advantage of $1.6 billion.

Between $90,000 and $92,000: Call options (buy) are $4.4 billion, while put options (sell) are $1.4 billion. The net result leans towards call options, with an advantage of $3 billion.

To minimize losses, bears must push Bitcoin below $84,000 before the March 28 expiration, approximately a 3% drop. This move would increase the value of put options (sell options), thereby strengthening the bears' position.

Conversely, if bulls can push Bitcoin's price above $90,000, it could provide enough momentum for a bullish trend in April, especially if there is a resurgence of strong capital inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Related: Bitcoin price prediction market forecasts that Bitcoin will not exceed $138,000 by 2025.

This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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