Master Discusses Hot Topics:

It's Friday, so let's briefly summarize the market this week. To be honest, there are still no signs of a reversal in terms of liquidity, macroeconomics, or data.

A simple example is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. After the dot plot was released in March, several Fed officials stated that they do not plan to lower interest rates in the short term, which means high rates will have to be endured for a while.

Additionally, with Trump shouting about tariffs, the risks of inflation and recession hang over us like the sword of Damocles; the longer this drags on, the more dangerous it becomes.

This situation not only affects the crypto market but also causes fluctuations in the U.S. stock market. So, it is likely still a period of speculation, with the key being how inflation behaves after Trump's tariffs are implemented. Every time he calls for increased tariffs, the market reacts like a startled bird.

Currently, Trump is like an invisible chart artist for candlestick patterns, or perhaps a military strategist. If he attacks a place three times without success, he calls for a retreat, telling you to rest, and then a few days later, he shouts to charge again!

Returning to the crypto market, recently I saw analysts saying that the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin has been invalidated, and in the future, it may be a chaotic mix of bull and bear cycles.

I personally think this conclusion is a bit premature. This halving cycle's bull market is much dimmer compared to 2017 and 2021. One could even say that the real bull market hasn't arrived yet, and the altcoin market is far from its previous peaks, but that doesn't mean the larger cyclical patterns have disappeared.

The main change this time is that both the underlying and upper logic of the market have shifted. After Bitcoin's ETF was approved last year, it pushed the price from 30k to 70k. Later, when Trump won the election, the main forces took the opportunity to push the price past 100k, so this round is an institutional bull market.

As for retail investors, they are still living in the logic of the previous cycle, thinking that if Bitcoin breaks 100k, altcoins will surely soar hundreds of times, especially since during the 2020-2021 bull market, there were coins that increased by a hundred, thousand, or even ten thousand times.

However, this time, altcoins are basically lying at the bottom because the events of the past few years have disrupted the economic order. Many project teams and investors have seen their assets shrink or even go bankrupt, and the post-pandemic era hasn't recovered. Some project teams recklessly issued coins, harvested a wave, and then ran away, leaving the market's liquidity in chaos.

Moreover, with inflation tightening over the past two years, new money hasn't come in, making it difficult to push token prices up. Bitcoin's yield is high, so funds have all flowed into Bitcoin, resulting in Bitcoin standing out while other coins have wilted.

Thus, this round is a bull market solely for Bitcoin. The best time for altcoins was during the transition from bear to bull last year, but unfortunately, that is now history. Some say a bull market without altcoins isn't a real bull market, but I think that statement is a bit extreme. The market's funds are limited; Bitcoin is the leader and the consensus. As long as it doesn't fall into a deep bear market this year, the four-year cycle pattern remains intact!

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 87800

Second Resistance Level: 87300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 86800

Second Support Level: 86300

Today's Suggestions:

After Bitcoin previously consolidated in the 82~83K range, it has rebounded, and the current price is hovering around 86~87K. In yesterday's article, the low long position set at 85800 gained 1900 points, so today we can focus on whether it can stabilize in this range before deciding on short-term entry.

The resistance above is quite clear, so I do not recommend being overly optimistic in setting higher resistance levels. First, pay attention to the immediate short-term resistance, and consider the next steps after the price breaks through.

In the short term, the first support level coincides with the 120-day moving average, so it can serve as the first support. However, this level may be easily broken, so don't rush to enter; it's best to wait for a lower shadow to consider a short-term entry.

The second support level is the low formed at yesterday's close, and whether this position can be maintained today is crucial. If there is a continued decline, it is best to close above 86300, and we should pay attention to whether it can raise the low points before considering a rebound.

On the hourly level, Bitcoin is within a converging triangle pattern, forming a small range of 86.8~87.3K. It is recommended to focus on the breakout points of the upper and lower bounds of the converging pattern for short-term operations before deciding to enter.

3.28 Master’s Wave Positioning:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 87600-88300 range, Target: 86800-86300

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