Trump has two options. The first is to continuously raise tariffs, which is equivalent to "building a high wall," isolating American businesses (possibly including North America) from the world. However, the challenge here is that the U.S. still needs the dollar to support its hegemony. If trade volumes between the U.S. and other countries decrease, the status of the dollar will inevitably decline. It may not be immediately replaced, but the risk of replacement increases.

In this model, demand from the U.S. decreases, global trade volume shrinks, and the world enters a recession, with the U.S. unable to remain unaffected.

The other path is the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which involves a weaker dollar. In this model, the U.S. is also happy (net exports increase), and other countries would not have much objection.

So from a game theory perspective, perhaps the second path will be taken.

The first path is not impossible; in 1930, the high tariff recession path was taken, which also led to World War I. Currently, it does not seem to be a zero probability, but the probability is not high. More likely, the outcome will be as follows:

U.S. tariffs will eventually rise to around 10%-20%, the world will enter a recession but it will be controllable, and the dollar will simultaneously begin to depreciate (similar to the Plaza Accord model).

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