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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Strategy Analysis Report for March 25, 2025
I. Interpretation of Market News
Continuous Policy Benefits Released
Oklahoma has passed the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act," allowing the state government to invest 10% of public funds in Bitcoin, becoming another state supporting crypto assets after Texas and Arizona. Such policies will enhance market confidence in the long term by allocating Bitcoin through sovereign funds.
Kentucky has signed the "Bitcoin Rights Act," clearly protecting residents' rights to self-custody wallets and run nodes, further eliminating regulatory uncertainty and benefiting the development of decentralized infrastructure.
Accelerated Integration of Institutions and Traditional Finance
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG)** has partnered with Crypto.com to launch a "Made in America" themed ETF, covering assets like Bitcoin and Cronos, with plans to launch in the US, Europe, and Asia within the year. This move will attract more traditional investors to participate in the crypto market through compliant channels.**
Circle has partnered with SBI to promote the official circulation of USDC in Japan on March 26, becoming the first globally approved dollar stablecoin by the Japanese Financial Services Agency, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the Asian market.
Kraken plans to raise $1 billion in debt to pave the way for an IPO and has acquired the futures platform NinjaTrader, indicating that exchanges are transforming into "one-stop" multi-asset platforms through mergers and acquisitions.
Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
QCP Capital points out that this round of rebound is driven by spot ETF demand (with a net inflow of $744 million last week), rather than leverage, but caution is needed regarding the potential pressure on risk assets from tariff upgrades on April 2.
Bernstein analysts believe that the crypto industry is accelerating its integration with traditional finance, with significant growth potential in the derivatives market (such as perpetual futures), and US regulatory easing may act as a catalyst.
II. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
Daily Level:
The price has broken through and stabilized above the MA30 moving average ($85,700). If it retraces to this support level during the day, it may continue the rebound trend.
The key resistance above is at the MA256 moving average ($89,000). If broken, it is expected to test the psychological level of $90,000, but caution is needed regarding the risk of a high-level pullback.
4-Hour Level:
The MA120 moving average ($85,500) and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($84,500) form a double support, indicating that short-term bullish momentum still exists.
Open interest has decreased by 2.01%, showing weak leverage demand, and volatility may be suppressed.
Ethereum (ETH)
Daily Level:
The price is testing the MA30 moving average ($2,120), and a breakout with volume is needed to confirm a trend reversal. The weekly MA256 ($2,145) serves as a stronger resistance level.
Exchange reserves have dropped to a historical low, with on-chain whales holding $272 million in long positions on Hyperliquid, indicating bullish sentiment from the main players, but caution is needed regarding RSI overbought risks.
4-Hour Level:
MACD has shown a bullish crossover, but trading volume has not significantly increased, necessitating caution against false breakouts. The support level is in the $1,980-$2,000 range.
III. On-Chain Data and Institutional Movements
On-Chain Activity
The number of active Bitcoin addresses is approximately 670,000 (+6.7%), while Ethereum has 730,000 active addresses, indicating a rebound in market participation.
The top 100 Bitcoin addresses hold 15.04% of the total supply (+0.06%), continuing the trend of institutional accumulation; the top 100 Ethereum addresses hold 70.15%, showing no significant change.
Institutional Position Adjustments
Institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs continue to increase their BTC holdings through ETFs, while ETH ETFs have seen a net outflow for 13 consecutive days, with significant signs of reduction from institutions like Fidelity.
MicroStrategy has invested another $580 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to over 500,000 coins, reinforcing bullish market expectations.
IV. Operational Strategy Recommendations
Bitcoin (BTC)
Long Position: Enter at $85,500, add to the position on a pullback to $84,500, target $87,000-$88,000. Basis: The MA30 support is solid, combined with institutional accumulation and ETF capital inflow.
Short Position: Lightly short in the $88,600-$89,500 range, with a stop loss set above $90,000, targeting a pullback of 2000-3000 points. Basis: The MA256 daily resistance level and profit-taking demand before tariff upgrades.
Ethereum (ETH)
Long Position: Enter at $2,015, add to the position on a pullback to $1,980, target $2,080-$2,120. Basis: 4-hour level support and whale holdings support.
Short Position: Test short in the $2,100-$2,150 range, with a stop loss set above $2,180, targeting a pullback of 150-200 points. Basis: Weekly MA256 resistance and ETF capital outflow pressure.
V. Risk Warning
Macro Disturbances: The tariff upgrades on April 2 may impact risk assets, and changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations need close attention.
Market Sentiment: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen to 45% (close to neutral), but panic sentiment has not completely dissipated, requiring strict stop-loss measures.
Technical Divergence: The decline in BTC open interest and weak ETH trading volume may limit the height of the rebound.
Conclusion: The current market is in a phase of resonance between policy benefits and technical aspects. Bitcoin is short-term bullish but needs to be cautious of high-level pressure, while Ethereum needs to break through key moving averages to confirm the trend. It is recommended to operate with a range-bound mindset, flexibly layout based on support and resistance levels, and pay attention to the impact of US stock market openings on risk assets.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. The focus is on spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Expertise includes: mobile lock-up strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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