Trump's Tariff Easing, Fed Slows Balance Sheet Reduction, the Stock Goddess Buys the Dip, BTC Breaks Through the Downtrend Line—Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?
Macroeconomic Interpretation: Just as Trump's tariff axe was about to fall, Washington suddenly adopted a gentler stance. According to the latest policy direction, the comprehensive tariffs originally set to take effect on April 2 may shrink to "targeted strikes," imposing reciprocal tariffs only on countries with trade deficits. Although this backtrack is not directly related to the crypto market, it unexpectedly became an "emotional regulator" for BTC's market. Grayscale's research interprets that the trade uncertainties of the Trump era were like the sword of Damocles hanging over Wall Street; now, with the blade slightly tilted, it is enough to give risk assets a breather.
The policy warm breeze coincides with the Fed's "warm water therapy." The March meeting not only maintained guidance for two rate cuts this year but also reduced the monthly balance sheet reduction from $25 billion to $5 billion. This "slowdown in balance sheet reduction" design aligns with the liquidity management wisdom during the 2008 crisis—maintaining policy credibility while quietly providing the market with an oxygen tank. Market observations reveal that as the quarterly arbitrage selling pressure nears its end, Bitcoin has quietly broken through the downtrend line, with the $85,000 level transitioning from a resistance point to a battleground for bulls and bears.
Amidst the market undercurrents, three sets of data are worth pondering: First, $11.9 billion worth of BTC options will expire this Friday, with the maximum pain point precisely anchored at $85,000, and the current price is hovering around this critical level; second, short leverage is piling up a $316 million liquidation powder keg at the $89,000 level, while Arthur Hayes' predicted target of $110,000 now seems even more exaggerated; third, the number of short-term holders has decreased by 17% compared to January, a phenomenon reminiscent of the mid-cycle characteristics of the 2017 bull market, suggesting that the market may be in the preparatory stage for a new trend.
The actions of institutional players are even more intriguing. ARK Invest is increasing its positions in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase, which Cathie Wood interprets as "betting on a technological revolution against benign deflation." Meanwhile, the U.S. government's return of $7 million in "redemption vouchers" to victims of crypto fraud, though a drop in the bucket, sends a signal of regulatory flexibility. These details piece together a picture where smart money is constructing a "dual-defense" position in the crypto ecosystem.
However, the script is never short of reversal foreshadowing. The PCE price index to be released this Friday is like a ticking time bomb; if the core inflation rate exceeds expectations, it could instantly extinguish the market's fantasies of a rate cut in June. The skew of options, a sentiment barometer, may still shift; the current bullish premium is like a castle built on quicksand. Not to mention, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, a "black swan," is lurking behind the oil price curve, waiting for the right moment to strike.
Bitcoin seems to be performing the most exquisite balancing act in financial history: it must digest the tidal fluctuations of ETF fund flows, hedge against the monthly first rise pressure of the dollar index, and maintain its stance within the "gravitational field" of the $11.9 billion options expiration. Will Arthur Hayes' $110,000 fantasy come true? Perhaps the answer lies within the Fed's balance sheet—when the slowdown in balance sheet reduction meets tariff easing, this "policy cocktail" is brewing a chemical effect that could make bears tremble. After all, in the crypto world, the tighter the spring is compressed, the more spectacular the rebound script becomes.
According to CoinAnk AI's Intelligent Analysis, the BTC 4-hour Level Market Analysis Report is as follows:
Main Support Level: 84954.36 USDT
Main Resistance Level: 88015.07 USDT
Current Trend: Clearly Upward
Detailed Explanation:
Technical Indicator Summary:
Moving Average System: MA5=86238.92, MA10=85322.41, MA20=84673.47, MA120=84510.65. The moving averages show a bullish arrangement, with short-term moving averages above long-term moving averages, indicating that the current market is in a strong upward trend.
MACD: DIF=621.95, DEA=339.44, Histogram=282.51. The MACD is in a golden cross state, and the histogram continues to expand, showing strong market momentum and a clear upward trend.
BOLL: Upper Band=86709.18, Middle Band=84673.46, Lower Band=82637.74. The current price is near the upper band, and %B=1.04%, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, but considering the strong trend, there is still room for upward movement.
RSI: RSI6=87.68, RSI12=74.28, RSI14=71.22, RSI24=61.97. RSI6 is in the overbought area, but other period RSIs have not yet reached overbought levels, indicating a short-term need for a pullback, but the overall trend remains bullish.
KDJ: K=87.75, D=83.59, J=96.09. KDJ is in a golden cross state, and the J value is high, indicating strong upward momentum in the market in the short term.
Indicator Data: Funding Rate: -0.00022700%. The funding rate is low, indicating that market bullish and bearish sentiments are relatively balanced, with no significant bearish or bullish sentiment.
Volume Changes: Recent trading volume has been continuously increasing, especially during price rises, with volume increasing in tandem, showing high market participation and supporting the upward trend.
Capital Flow Data: 24-hour contract net inflow of 1161095507.45 USDT, spot net inflow of 128704490.95 USDT. Capital inflow is significant, especially in contract funds, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market.
Analysis Result:
Direction: Long;
Entry Timing: The current price is close to the BOLL upper band; it is recommended to enter when the price pulls back to near the support level to reduce the risk of chasing highs.
Stop Loss Setting: About 3% of the entry price to control risk.
Target Price: The target price is set at 91000 USDT, with an expected return of about 5%.
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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