The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smoke bombs!
Returning to the cryptocurrency market, the fluctuations in the market have caused some trend-related questions for everyone. Today, I will provide a unified response. Too many users are asking Lao Cui whether there will be new lows in the first half of the year. This also includes why, after the market rises, Lao Cui is short but does not recommend users without profits to short? In fact, these two questions belong to the same logic. Once everyone clarifies the issue of new lows in the first half of the year, they will understand the logic of why users without profits should avoid shorting. New lows will definitely occur, and the idea of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year can be completely dismissed. Compared to last year's financial situation in the U.S., the data in this new phase is definitely better than last year, and last year's interest rate cuts were all concentrated in the last quarter. Learning from history, the possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year is almost zero. Only BlackRock's bottom-fishing behavior has been ongoing, and the platforms in the U.S. are basically holding a large amount of Bitcoin. In Lao Cui's eyes, these actions can be seen as preparations for the upcoming bull market. The current price decline is entirely due to retail investors losing confidence, which is clearly felt through some actions by Trump, as the promises made before the election have not been fulfilled with enough sincerity.
Regarding regulatory issues in the cryptocurrency space, they are becoming increasingly strict, even harsh. This includes the domestic situation, where everyone can clearly feel that the issue of U.S. dollars is receiving more and more attention. Now, any buying or selling actions are very difficult. Although the apparent tolerance for the cryptocurrency space is increasing, the regulatory measures implemented behind the scenes are deterring many users. There is a sense of a rising surface but a declining reality. This is also what Lao Cui mentioned last year: to control the gray market, the cryptocurrency space must be legalized. Legal compliance is not necessarily a good thing for most users. The favorable conditions of interest rate cuts and the bearish outlook of ordinary users have created a huge contrast in the short term, resulting in a capital outflow of over a trillion since the new high in 2025, mostly due to the liquidation of speculators. You can also compare this with the gold market and U.S. Treasury data. In the past decade, we have sold off U.S. Treasuries amounting to 500 billion, gradually reducing our holdings in U.S. Treasuries to buy gold. As long as these actions continue, the appreciation potential of gold will only increase. A prudent investment always targets gold shares; the growth and returns of gold have indeed had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency space, with most of the outflow from the cryptocurrency market being invested in gold. The siphoning effect will cause the cryptocurrency market to decline on a monthly basis, and the temporary favorable news in the cryptocurrency space is insufficient to support such a large market value, leaving almost only the path of decline.
As for the space for decline, Lao Cui has previously mentioned the situation of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The downside space will not be too large; Ethereum has previously mentioned that 1500 is almost the lowest point, while Bitcoin is between 70000-75000. It is also necessary to remind everyone that these are all estimates and do not necessarily mean that these depths will be reached. Therefore, for a normal long-term stable choice, one should start preparing to bottom out from the 80,000 mark, purchasing with a position of about ten percent, which should allow one to buy close to the lowest point. This is for long-term users, while for short-term users, the current short positions should not be too large. The trend is still dominated by bulls, and the upper space is unpredictable, which means that the returns from going long are definitely stronger than going short. If around the 20th, everyone lacks the courage to enter the market due to price issues and thus misses out on this wave of profits, then the short positions should naturally be abandoned. The risk is too great; once a directional change occurs, short positions can clear all the chips in hand. Therefore, Lao Cui's response to the previous wave was basically to ambush and enter the market on the 19th and exit on the 20th, which is the best response to the market sentiment. Without the support of profits, using principal as a bet is not a wise move. Many novices do not pay enough attention to the time difference with the U.S.; the announcement made in the early hours of the 20th, until the news spread widely on the 20th, everyone only then realized how significant the impact of interest rate cuts was. The lack of sensitivity to news means that one can suffer losses due to time differences, which is purely one's own reason.
In the upcoming market, what everyone needs to pay attention to is that for long-term users who want to do spot trading, they can start preparing to enter the market. Regarding capital issues, it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of importance, at least to ensure that this capital will not be used this year. If you can endure a dormant period of six months to a year, you can enter the market. If you want to wait for lower points, you can choose to prepare to enter around 80,000, and for Ethereum starting with 18, you can enter in batches. For small coins, the downside space will definitely be deeper than these two. Lao Cui will not make predictions about small coins to avoid causing losses due to misjudgment. The capital outflow basically starts from small coins, and Lao Cui cannot predict whether there will still be funds willing to accept these types of coins whose popularity has faded in the next bull market. It is particularly reminded that coins with a market value below 100 million are not worth holding long-term; these types of coins can only be treated with a speculative mindset, unless you can accept losses of 80% or even 90%. Recently, there is a piece of news that has caught Lao Cui's attention, which may affect the process of interest rate cuts. A few days ago, the Federal Reserve released the audit results of its financial statements for 2024, showing a loss of 77.6 billion, plus a loss of 114.5 billion in 2023. It can be said that the reasons for the consecutive two years of losses can be attributed to the mask period, especially since last year's end still experienced interest rate cut rescue measures, yet still ended with losses. It is possible that this year's interest rate cuts will come earlier than last year.
Lao Cui's summary: Considering all the news, the short-term capital outflow phenomenon is extremely terrifying. Do not focus on the growth of the U.S. spot index; this has already experienced too much decline before. Looking at the growth of gold, the cryptocurrency market is likely to continue to trend downward in the next two months. The depth below is difficult to predict; the overall environment is definitely better than before, the depth will not be too deep, but new lows will definitely come. In conjunction with U.S. stock data, the strong growth of U.S. stocks has basically ended, and the current price and market value have returned to the data before last year's interest rate cuts. In comparison, Bitcoin's performance is still stronger than U.S. stocks, which is why more people feel that Bitcoin has not yet bottomed out. Only after enduring these few months will there be signals for a counterattack. For your short-term strategies, just focus on going short. I would also like to report to everyone that in recent times, Lao Cui's position adjustments have mostly revolved around Ethereum and SOL. The entry points have been too high, and I have been continuously averaging down. Currently, Lao Cui's average holding prices for Ethereum and SOL are around 2000 and 150, respectively, both primarily in losses. However, the contracts have been mainly short, which can basically offset the losses from spot trading, with the main profits still coming from Bitcoin, exiting with a profit from 70,000-96,000. After that, Lao Cui will also look to bottom out Bitcoin and will notify everyone at that time. Currently, the contracts I hold are short positions in the market, located around 85, and I expect to hold them until new lows are broken. However, the contracts are not necessarily a reference; a sudden rise may also lead Lao Cui to take profits. For specific contract issues, you can directly ask Lao Cui, and for spot issues, feel free to leave a message. Even if Lao Cui's replies are not timely, it will not delay the layout!
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, you can contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
