🚨 The Federal Reserve has incurred losses for nine consecutive quarters as a consequence of the past implementation of quantitative easing policies. Approximately $10 trillion in debt is due in June, and it must either be repaid or refinanced at current interest rates.

The madness during the easing phase is matched by the pain during the tightening phase.

Now, Trump is desperately urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the Fed seems reluctant to intervene. To maintain its independence, it insists on holding firm. Its ability to survive depends on whether U.S. Treasury bonds collapse, which can be assessed by three key indicators:

1. Is it difficult to issue U.S. Treasury bonds?
2. Is the fiscal deficit being alleviated?
3. Is the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates?

As for the scale, that is not a primary consideration; there is no significant difference between $35 trillion and $45 trillion because it is clear that serious repayment is impossible.

In any case, the Federal Reserve cannot raise rates, nor can it lower them. No matter which direction it takes, it leads to a dead end. For now, it can only leave things to fate and choose to remain inactive to avoid triggering a rapid market reaction.

Hang in there, everyone; it still feels early!

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