Master Discusses Hot Topics:

As this week is coming to an end, looking back at the market sentiment, it has been quite unfriendly. The Federal Reserve's decision did not align with market expectations. You might say they have reduced the balance sheet, but on the surface, it looks like they have just released a bit of liquidity.

In reality, the Federal Reserve is not doing this for any favorable outcome; they just want to prolong the balance sheet reduction. As a result, investors are not buying into it at all, and there are no surprises to speak of.

Not to mention that the market was previously hoping for three interest rate cuts this year, but now it has reverted to two, which is utterly disappointing. Powell may not admit that the U.S. economy is heading into a recession, but he has hinted that economic growth is indeed starting to slow down.

Additionally, there are two things to pay attention to next week: one is the core PCE data, and the other is the University of Michigan's inflation indicator. The market's expectations for these two data points are not very optimistic, and it feels like it will be nerve-wracking.

On April 2, two more events will unfold: one is the official start of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, and the other is the House Financial Services Committee's review of the stablecoin bill. This stablecoin is clearly the first step for the U.S. to enter the cryptocurrency market, and the signal is quite clear.

Now, regarding the current market sentiment, everyone is starting to accept a reality: inflation is likely to fluctuate for a while, and tariffs may further fuel inflation, which could lead the U.S. economy to slide downwards.

Master has long mentioned in his articles that to understand whether the market will rebound or reverse next, we need to look at macro sentiment and liquidity. However, given the current situation, the conditions for a reversal are simply insufficient; any rise is merely a rebound.

Returning to the market, for the cryptocurrency sector this year, everyone believes that the peak will be reached in the fourth quarter, which is a consensus in the market. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in June or July, then the third quarter could be a good time to buy on dips.

The first half of the year is mainly characterized by fluctuations, and shorting at highs can still make some money. Before the peak in the fourth quarter, smart investors should start positioning for long-term shorts.

However, Master has also noticed some KOLs talking nonsense, claiming that 2026 will also be a bull market. First of all, the next Bitcoin halving won't happen until the first half of 2028, and 2027 will be a transitional phase between bear and bull markets, so 2026 will definitely be a deep bear market. If they can't even get this major trend right, what are they even doing?

They will definitely be stuck halfway up the mountain, with very few chips in hand, and when the weekly bottom comes, they won't be able to make any money. Want to make big profits in the next bull market? No chance! In every bear market, when you enter directly determines how high you can climb in the next bull market; this principle is very simple.

Right now, the market is in a phase of washing out positions, changing hands, and a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Don't expect any one-sided trends. After some ups and downs, and a period of sideways movement, the market makers will jump in to clean up. The first step is to eliminate the side with more chips; this is an old routine.

At this time, you can short at highs, go long at lows for hedging, and make quick trades on short longs and short shorts to capture easier profits. As long as the bearish trend remains unchanged, the main strategy should still be to short at highs and use low longs as a supplement. Although the low long mentioned in yesterday's article did not reach the first target, it still gained over a thousand points.

Therefore, there is basically no need to set any defenses for high shorts; just throw them out casually; for low longs, you need to be cautious and leave some room for maneuver. In the current complex market situation, pay more attention to macro data and market sentiment, be flexible, and don't be rigid and unaware of how to adapt.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 84800

Second Resistance Level: 84350

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 83700

Second Support Level: 83300

Today's Suggestions:

Currently, Bitcoin is forming a range-bound trend. During the day, pay attention to the breakout points at the upper and lower bounds of the range and trade according to the short-term trend. Considering the weekend factors, the market is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations.

If the current upward trend can continue, if it breaks through the first resistance level, the probability of a subsequent retest remains high. Since we are currently in a range-bound trend, it is advisable to avoid long-term positions and take profits in phases at the first and second resistance levels.

The first support level is located in the area where the lower bound of the range coincides with the upward trend line, making it a key support level in the short term. If the price falls below the first support level, the short-term trend line will also be breached.

At this point, support may turn into resistance, and bearish sentiment in the market may strengthen. It is also recommended to pay attention to the movements of the 120-day and 200-day moving averages to confirm trend changes.

3.22 Master’s Band Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 84800-85600 range, Target: 83700-83300

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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