Trump Calls for Fed Rate Cuts Twice, BTC Bulls Reach Six-Month High, Bull Market Score Index Drops to Lowest Point in Two Years!
Macro Interpretation: In the tug-of-war between expectations of Fed rate cuts and the looming tariffs from Trump, the crypto market is witnessing a battle of ice and fire. Recently, Trump once again urged the Fed to cut rates, stating that doing so now would be "fantastic." His remarks are interpreted as an attempt to stimulate the economy through monetary policy to gain voter support. However, the market seems more concerned about another card up the former president's sleeve—according to Politico, the Trump administration plans to embed blockchain technology into the aid tracking system of the U.S. Agency for International Development (currently proposed to be renamed IHA), attempting to reshape its international image through on-chain transparency. Although this concept does not explicitly adopt cryptocurrency payments, it opens up imaginative possibilities for the application of blockchain technology in government scenarios.
Meanwhile, another tariff plan from Trump is causing market anxiety. Investors are worried that potential tariffs could trigger inflation, forcing the Fed to delay rate cuts, leading to a collective decline in the three major U.S. stock indices. Under this dual pressure, the crypto market is showing "resilient fluctuations." Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $84,650 due to Trump's lack of substantial benefits at the DAS summit but quickly recovered. The leveraged long positions for Bitcoin on the Bitfinex exchange surged to 80,333, reaching a six-month high. The awakening of this "leveraged giant" suggests that some institutions are betting on structural opportunities amid policy fluctuations. However, historical data shows that the growth of such positions often presents a "dislocated dance" with price trends—when long positions increased by 13,620 BTC in July 2024, the price fell from $65,500 to $58,000, proving that a leveraged-driven market is like walking a tightrope at high altitude, requiring both courage and patience.
The "ice-breaking action" in the regulatory field is quietly rewriting the rules of the game. The SEC's latest statement confirms that PoW mining does not fall under the category of securities, clearing obstacles for the approval of ETFs for established projects like Litecoin. BeInCrypto analysts predict that Q2 2025 may become the "collective coming-of-age ceremony" for altcoin ETFs, providing a boost that has recently warmed up the BNB on-chain ecosystem. The market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $230 billion for the first time, akin to equipping the crypto world with an "oxygen tank"—Tether holds a 60% share with a market cap of $144 billion, followed closely by USDC at $59 billion. This "dollar tokenization race" reflects the deep logic of traditional capital penetrating the crypto ecosystem through stablecoins.
On the market sentiment level, the forces of bulls and bears are engaging in a "Tai Chi push hands" game. CryptoQuant's Bitcoin bull market score index has dropped to a two-year low of 20, creating a strange resonance with the bear market trough of 2022. On the other hand, Ethereum players are staging an "Exodus"—the exchange's ETH supply has fallen to a ten-year low of 8.97 million, equivalent to all holders locking up $42 billion worth of "digital gold" in DeFi vaults and staking safes. This "collective hoarding syndrome" sharply contrasts with the optimistic sentiment surrounding AI tokens: a CoinGecko survey shows that 44% of respondents hold a bullish view on AI tokens, reflecting the real evolution from concept validation to commercial implementation of AI and blockchain integration.
The "weather forecasters" in the options market have adopted a wait-and-see stance. Greeks indicate that Bitcoin's short- to medium-term volatility has fallen below 50%, with market makers betting on continued sideways movement by tightening implied volatility. This "calm before the storm" resembles the pause in the middle of the 2017 bull market—when most believe the market will enter a prolonged consolidation, a regulatory breakthrough or technological iteration could trigger a new pulse. Just like the blockchain government plan from the Trump administration, which is still on paper, it has already injected a catalyst of policy imagination into the market.
The crypto market is undergoing a difficult transformation from the "wild era" to the "establishment era." The Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical games, and the improvement of the regulatory framework form a triple gravitational field, with Bitcoin playing the role of a "digital Noah's Ark"—carrying the original mission of resisting fiat currency devaluation while having to adjust its course amid the turbulent waves of the traditional financial system. As stablecoins become the greatest common divisor between the fiat system and the crypto world, and as AI tokens attempt to write machine learning models into smart contracts, this financial experiment that began with a code revolution is writing the next chapter in the collision between policymakers and technological innovators. Perhaps, as those leveraged bulls patiently waiting on Bitfinex believe: true value often emerges at the most fragile moments of market consensus.
BTC Market Analysis:
According to CoinAnk AI's intelligent analysis, the BTC market analysis report is as follows:
The daily level of BTC maintains a bearish oscillation structure, with support around the $81,000 area and key resistance at the $87,400 range. On the technical side, the moving average system is in a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages continuously suppressing price fluctuations, and the downtrend slope of the medium- to long-term moving averages remains unchanged, indicating that the market is still in a bearish-dominated pattern. The MACD maintains a death cross formation, and the contraction of the momentum bars suggests a weakening of the downward momentum, but no effective reversal signal has formed yet. The price continues to operate below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a low %B value reflecting a short-term technical correction demand, but the overall downward channel remains unbroken. The four-hour level is in the process of a pullback after testing the descending trend line.
Indicators show a divergence between bulls and bears. The RSI multi-period indicator is in a neutral to weak range, and market sentiment remains cautious; the KDJ's local golden cross indicates a potential short-term rebound, but medium- to long-term indicators are still constrained by the downward trend. The funding situation shows that both the futures and spot markets are experiencing net outflows, coupled with a continuous shrinkage in trading volume, reflecting insufficient willingness of main funds to participate and marginal contraction in market liquidity.
The operational strategy suggests focusing on short positions in the rebound pressure zone, and if the volume supports an effective breakdown, it can extend the space. Currently, caution is advised regarding potential technical rebounds triggered by prices approaching the lower channel boundary; holders should control leverage and pay attention to key volume-price verification signals. Before the market shows a confirmed trend reversal signal, maintaining a high short approach to cope with the oscillating market is recommended.
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