Author: Bright, Foresight News

On March 19, U.S. time, the Federal Reserve concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting, announcing that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, in line with market expectations.

The cryptocurrency market responded with a surge, with Bitcoin achieving a "nine consecutive green candles" on the four-hour chart, reaching a peak of $87,453.67. Ethereum also broke through its consolidation range, surpassing the $2,000 mark, with a high of $2,069.90. Market liquidity expectations have improved relatively.

As of March 20, 1 PM, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours reached $355 million, with short positions liquidating $257 million and long positions liquidating $97.74 million, primarily affecting short positions. Notably, prior to the Fed's FOMC meeting, Ethereum's price surge led to a total liquidation amount exceeding that of Bitcoin.

Powell: The Fed Needs "Technical Adjustments"

The Fed remained on hold as expected but released several dovish signals. Fed Chair Powell mentioned "uncertainty" 16 times during a one-hour press conference at the White House, repeatedly emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.

Compared to the January meeting, the Fed removed the statement about "the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals being roughly balanced" from its announcement and raised the core PCE inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.8%. This adjustment may suggest a weakening confidence in a soft landing for the economy, prompting global markets to bet on future rate cuts.

At the same time, starting in April, the monthly reduction cap for U.S. Treasury bonds will drop sharply from $25 billion to $5 billion, while the MBS reduction cap will remain at $35 billion. Although Powell referred to this move as a "technical adjustment," the market interpreted the Fed's significant slowdown in balance sheet reduction as a sign that quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end. Consequently, U.S. Treasury yields fell by 8-11 basis points, gold surpassed $3,050 per ounce, setting a new historical high, and both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices rose.

Trump: Cut Rates Immediately!

After the FOMC meeting, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating: "As U.S. tariffs begin to transition to the economy (easing!), the Fed better cut rates. April 2 is America's Liberation Day!!"

Trump firmly demanded that the Fed "cut rates immediately," blaming high-interest rate policies as a continuation of "Biden inflation." Last month, Trump posted on Truth Social that "rates should be lowered, which will go hand in hand with the upcoming tariffs!!" His core logic is clear: lowering rates can reduce the government's debt cost of up to $36 trillion while promoting the return of manufacturing through tariff policies.

Previously, Trump's economic advisor, Hassett, publicly stated that the White House predicts a 2.5% economic growth rate for 2025, significantly higher than the Fed's latest forecast of 1.7%. This divergence stems from Trump's optimism about tariff policies—he believes protectionist measures can "revitalize manufacturing," but economists warn it could trigger a global trade war, pushing U.S. inflation above 2.5%. Fitch Ratings pointed out that Trump's tariffs and the "huge uncertainty" surrounding them are two driving factors behind potential economic slowdown and short-term price increases. This uncertainty is likely to freeze any rate-cutting actions by the Fed, further widening the gap between Trump and the Fed.

Crypto Season Change: Slow Recovery

In the native crypto market, recent positive regulatory developments have spurred the initial recovery of certain cryptocurrencies, which may further warm the market under the premise of macroeconomic easing.

On March 12, the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund's $2 billion investment in Binance provided a direct boost, leading BNB and the BSC ecosystem to take the lead in the recovery of the crypto chain, giving rise to phenomena like MUBARAK, which surpassed a market cap of $200 million. On March 19, according to DeFiLlama data, the trading volume of BSC ecosystem DEX reached $2.664 billion in the past 24 hours, surpassing Ethereum's $1.356 billion to rank first.

On the evening of March 19, the news that "the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple" directly stimulated XRP to rise by 11.46% temporarily, reaching a peak of $2.59. On March 20, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse revealed in an interview with Bloomberg that an XRP ETF is expected to be listed by the end of 2025. He also stated that an IPO for Ripple Labs is not out of the question.

Regarding the future market, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted on X, stating, "Powell has delivered on his promise; quantitative tightening (QT) will essentially end on April 1. Moving forward, to truly push the market into a bull run, either the supplemental leverage ratio (SLR) exemption policy needs to be restored, or quantitative easing (QE) needs to be restarted. $77,000 may be the bottom for Bitcoin, but the stock market may still need to experience some turbulence before Jay (Powell) fully sides with Trump's team."

Wall Street traders have already begun betting on rate cuts in June and July. However, in the short term, those in the crypto market need to remain flexible, as the "sword of Damocles" of tariffs taking effect on April 2 still looms large. Perhaps, it is time to prepare cash on hand, as Arthur Hayes suggested.

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