The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens!

With the recent stability in the market, it has provided contract users with opportunities for profit, while old users are asking Lao Cui about the impact of previous exchange rate fluctuations on the crypto world, and whether it is still valid according to the current fluctuations. Today, based on this idea, I will combine the future trends and have a serious discussion with everyone. The exchange rate itself reflects a country's strength; the more valuable the domestic currency, the stronger the economic strength of that country, which is fundamentally linked. This is also why after the U.S. launched a trade war, our exchange rate skyrocketed from 6.2 to 7.5, and is currently almost stable around 7.2-7.3. Of course, the exchange rate is more closely related to foreign exchange itself, and under normal circumstances, it is more closely tied to export trade. During the previous strong dollar phase, we often mentioned that the exchange rate and December's foreign trade settlement would lead to a decline in the crypto market. This linkage conclusion is more established under stable economic conditions. You can review last December's crypto market data, which indeed opened up a certain degree of downward space. The U.S. usually raises the value of the dollar during the fourth quarter settlement, which reduces the corresponding rewards. At the same time, the dollar often experiences some depreciation at the beginning of the year; these operations are all based on the interests of the U.S.

This conversion method will have a certain effect when the financial environment is stable. Because a strong dollar means the decline of other currencies, survival of the fittest. Therefore, users from other countries who want to invest in the crypto market will have to consider costs to a certain extent, and this consideration is definitely aimed at institutions. Don't underestimate the price difference in the range of 6.2-7.2; many institutions enter the market mostly in units of hundreds of millions, which translates to a price difference of over a hundred million CNY. Based on this logic, it can be seen that during last year's Asian financial crisis, the growth of the crypto market also stagnated. This competition among institutions will have a certain impact on the short-term trends of the crypto market. Currently, the main players in Asia are still Japan and South Korea, and there are not many domestic institutions entering the market. When the yen collapsed, almost no funds from Japan entered the crypto market. Therefore, last year, based on the exchange rate, certain patterns could be observed in the short term. However, this year, this formula is completely inapplicable. Everyone needs to learn to make choices; it can be said that since Trump took office, the trend has already been set, so the fluctuations in the exchange rate will definitely be dominated by the trend. The simplest logic is that entering the exchange rate at this stage will incur some losses. Assuming the worst-case scenario, losing one hundred million USDT would mean losing one hundred million CNY, but overall, the trend can allow you to earn two hundred million USDT, making the exchange rate seem too insignificant in comparison. The issues regarding the exchange rate must be applied when the market is stable. Currently, the exchange rate is also tending to stabilize, so you can ignore the impact of the exchange rate unless it breaks the previous highs; otherwise, ignore it during other time periods!

With the interest rate meeting on the 20th, although the previous interest rate was maintained, the dot plot indicates two rate cuts this year, leading to another surge in the crypto market and gold. This article was originally scheduled to meet everyone on the 19th, but too many users asked Lao Cui yesterday, which delayed the sending time. Therefore, everyone must have their own subjective judgment regarding this public opinion market. Basically, for users who asked Lao Cui yesterday, my suggestion was to enter long positions. Some users hesitated at the price and thought about focusing on short positions today. There will indeed be a certain depth of correction today, but for those who have not made a profit on this wave of long positions, it is better not to easily enter short positions. In a public opinion market, if you miss the opportunity, do not go against the trend. The biggest highlight of this interest rate meeting is that the dot plot shows there will be two rate cuts this year, which is almost the same as Lao Cui's estimate, indirectly leading to a short-term influx of funds into the crypto market, causing this phenomenal surge. Everyone should not have too high expectations; this expectation of rate cuts has not released funds. Even if it hits a certain height, the subsequent strength will be insufficient. Therefore, users holding short positions should not be anxious to stop losses; today is definitely not the best time to release. There will still be opportunities to get out of short positions, while users trapped in long positions should try to choose opportunities to exit after today's correction.

At this point, if you have market questions, try to ask Lao Cui directly. Follow the article; Lao Cui will update in a timely manner. When a big market comes, as long as there is profit, Lao Cui is mainly focused on layout. All currencies will still have new lows, so don't be anxious. This wave of bearish trends has not ended. The expectations of two rate cuts are almost the same as last year. Don't have too high expectations in the first half of the year. The most intuitive comparison is that this year's economic situation is much better than last year. The earliest possible rate cut strategy may come around September to October, and the entire trend will have nearly half a year of time entering a funding vacuum period. As mentioned before, the only hope is the listing of the third currency. Currently, there is no definite news about the progress of SOL. The entire financial situation is once again overlapping with last year. Gold has also started a growth pattern, repeatedly hitting new highs while traditional finance is stagnating again. This year's two rate cut decisions are no longer up for discussion; they will definitely come. Many times I have mentioned the topic of rate cuts, and many friends have a questioning attitude. The non-farm data and inflation data for February and March can also indicate that Trump's instability is significant. The tariff strategy and inflation issues cannot be resolved, and the Federal Reserve has no choice but to cut rates. Therefore, spot users must seize this wave of downward space and enter the market early. The depth of this correction will determine the upward space. There will not be too many opportunities for decline later. Remember, this may very well be the time for you to hold until the lowest point; do not miss it.

Lao Cui's summary: From the monthly K-line chart, since January when Trump's public opinion market reached a new high of 110,000, each month's low point has been getting lower, with new lows even reaching around 76; the outflow of funds can also explain many issues. The entire crypto market has evaporated nearly one trillion in market value over three months. These two points, combined with the overall financial market environment and the growth of gold, remind us that the crypto market has entered a downward space in the short term. Once this downward space opens up, without strong financial support, there may not be a significant rebound. Previous articles have also mentioned that a downward space does not mean there are no opportunities for recovery and rebound, so shorting cannot be done blindly. The rebound space will likely be maintained around 5000 points for Bitcoin. For users who have already made a profit on long positions yesterday, consider entering short positions in the short term, but do not hold for too long. All profits from short positions should be controlled within around 2000 points. Everyone should not overly pursue new highs and new lows, and even in contracts, definitely cannot hold based on absolute lows and highs. It is impossible for ordinary people to achieve such accomplishments. As long as a trend comes, any point can be entered. At this stage in the crypto market, there are opportunities for both long and short positions to profit; what is more tested is your position management. Of course, in the short term, the bears are dominant, and shorting will be easier to profit from, that’s all. The growth space and trend have already been communicated to you in advance; whether you can grasp it is your own issue. At the end of the article, I reiterate that there will still be new highs in 2025, and the overall direction has not changed. Lao Cui is still at the low point for bottom fishing. Spot users can start to layout. The idea of a new high of 120,000 for Bitcoin has not changed substantively. Lao Cui will notify everyone of any directional changes. If there are any misunderstandings about specific points and positions, you can ask Lao Cui directly. That's all for now; see you next time!

Original article created by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this carries risks!

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