Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Approaches, Quantitative Tightening Expected to End in May?BTC Open Interest Drops 27%, EOS Surges 55% Before Pullback

Macro Interpretation: When former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers quipped that "modern economic policy is like playing on a seesaw at an amusement park," he perhaps did not anticipate that this statement would become the best commentary on the current cryptocurrency market. Recently, multiple macro variables have intertwined, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Trump's new tariff policy, and the rumble of Tether's minting machine reshaping the underlying logic of the digital asset market.

The balance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is subtly shifting. Although the March interest rate meeting maintained the 4.25%-4.50% range as expected, the market is betting with 100% probability on the Polymarket platform that the quantitative tightening policy will end in May. This collective expectation resonates with the analysis of Pepperstone strategists—policymakers must address the inflationary pressures from Trump's new tariff policy (with CPI forecasts expected to be raised by 0.3%) while balancing the potential damage to economic growth (with GDP growth forecasts possibly downgraded to 1.8%). This "both-and" dilemma resembles the art of monetary policy on a tightrope.

In this macro game, the USDT minting machine is running at full throttle. The issuance of 6 billion USDT on the Tron network is akin to injecting a shot of adrenaline into the crypto market. The continuous expansion of this stablecoin corresponds with Binance wallet's daily trading volume of $90.56 million, revealing the truth of institutional capital's undercurrents—while traditional markets hesitate due to tariff clouds (Zollick warns of potential severe impacts on the North American automotive supply chain), crypto assets are becoming a natural safe haven for capital seeking efficiency.

Today, Bitcoin's volatility is at 3.48%, remaining at levels seen since September 2024, reflecting a certain degree of market illiquidity. Bitcoin's price resilience validates this capital migration. Although QCP Capital warns of the vulnerability of the $80,000 support level, the market's microstructure shows positive signals: open interest in futures has dropped 27% from a high of $35 billion, while spot ETF holdings have remained stable against the trend. This "futures cooling, spot locking" pattern, as Matrixport puts it, reflects that speculative chips are shifting into the hands of long-term investors. More intriguingly, behind the 24-fold increase in Binance wallet users this month, the ecological expansion of 18 public chains is building a more robust value network.

Looking ahead, the tariff deadline on April 2 looms like the sword of Damocles. Historical experience shows that the steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 triggered a 12% risk-averse surge in Bitcoin within a week. Now, combined with the expectation that the Federal Reserve may end balance sheet reduction early, the market is brewing a new chemical effect. Smart capital has begun to position itself: while traditional asset management institutions are still debating the timing of a "dovish turn," the minting speed of USDT and the activity level of on-chain transactions—two leading indicators—may have already leaked the secret.

In this dance between macro policy and the crypto ecosystem, Bitcoin is evolving from "digital gold" to "liquidity sponge." It absorbs the risk-averse demand spilled over from tariff frictions while also processing the tidal wave of dollars released by the Federal Reserve's policy shift. Perhaps, as the old saying goes: "When the storm comes, the best sailors adjust their sails rather than avoid the storm." For the crypto market, learning to capture structural opportunities amid policy uncertainty is far more valuable than predicting short-term volatility.

EOS has rebounded strongly in the past few days, although it has basically retraced its intraday gains, peaking at $0.671, with an increase of nearly 55% from recent lows. The main positive news is that EOS has announced its rebranding to #Vaulta, focusing on #Web3 banking services. This transformation is accompanied by a token swap expected to be arranged by the end of May. Today, news also emerged that Vaulta will concentrate on four core areas: wealth management, consumer payments, portfolio management, and insurance, bringing real value to institutions and consumers.

According to CoinAnk AIintelligent analysis,the market analysis reportis as follows:

EOS shows a short-term upward trend on the daily chart, with support at $0.506 and key resistance at $0.663. Technically, the moving average system maintains a bullish arrangement, with short-term moving averages diverging upwards to form support. The MACD golden cross continues, and both lines are running above the zero axis, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening. The price continues to operate along the upper Bollinger Band, with the technical pattern in a strong zone.

Indicators display typical bullish market characteristics, with the RSI short-term indicator entering the overbought zone, but medium to long-term indicators remain in a neutral to bullish range; the KDJ indicator has entered the overbought zone, with the J line reaching extreme values indicating short-term strength, necessitating caution against technical pullback risks. The funding situation shows that both the futures and spot markets are experiencing net inflows, with the willingness of main funds to enter increasing, coupled with a continuous increase in trading volume, indicating that market bullish sentiment is rising.

From an operational perspective, it is recommended to pay attention to the strength of bullish support when the price retraces to the support zone; if it stabilizes, one can consider positioning long. It is essential to closely monitor the volume accompanying the pressure zone; an effective breakthrough may open up upward space. The current market maintains a trend of rising volume and price, but short-term technical indicators are overbought, necessitating position control to manage volatility risks.

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