Author | Ben Fairbank
Produced by | Baihua Blockchain
The crypto market is like a drunkard, stumbling into 2025 while closely following the bull market at the end of 2024. This bull market feels both familiar and fundamentally strange.
Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 headline at the end of 2024, Memecoins soaring like slot machines, and Donald Trump's support for crypto have ignited a feast reminiscent of Beeple's artwork—captivating yet unsettling.
However, beneath the hype, this cycle is a chaotic mix of leverage frenzy, institutional restraint, and macroeconomic gambling, which could either propel the market to new heights or derail it. This is not the FOMO frenzy driven by retail investors in 2021, but a different beast, and the data corroborates this chaos.
This bull market is unprecedented, and some controversial truths may make you rethink your position at the table.
01. Leverage Trading: From Tool to Casino Drug, Memecoin Gamblers are the Winners
Leverage trading is not new, but the scale today is shocking.
In the 2021 bull market, leverage was merely a side dish; now it is the main course, mixed with the madness of Memecoins. Platforms like Binance and Bybit report a surge in leverage trading volume, with Binance alone reaching $1.2 trillion in perpetual futures trading volume in Q4 2024, a 60% increase from the peak in 2021.
Memecoins, the fallen darlings of these crypto casinos, are the source of the spark, more intense than the fuse that ignited the wildfires in Los Angeles. A 2025 survey by Security.org found that 68% of Memecoin traders admitted to losses since entering the market, yet they continue to double down with 50x and 100x leverage like hopeful doge avatar influencers. Why? Because Dogecoin reached $0.73 (with a market cap exceeding $100 billion), and the TRUMP token peaked at $15 billion in January 2025, turning trading into a dopamine factory.
This is not rational speculation; it is a slot machine disguised in blockchain technology, where the house always wins. Every day we hear similar stories, like 27-year-old trader Chump, who told Business Insider, "I love the thrill of watching the numbers go up." He made $10,000 trading Memecoins, but he is one of the lucky ones. Why is a $10,000 trade worth reporting? Because they attract those who start small and bet big. However, most people are losing money, and the leverage frenzy makes this bull market feel like a steroid-fueled circus.
02. Position Size: Crypto Leverage Math Disrupts Traditional Thinking
Things have become crazier, as the leverage position size in the crypto market is quoted in a way that reflects full risk, creating a perplexing scene not seen in traditional markets. A $4 million trade at 50x leverage? That’s a $200 million market exposure. In stock or forex markets, you would only report the $4 million margin, not the magnified bet. This exaggerates the appearance and amplifies the risk.
Galaxy Research estimates that the nominal value of average leverage positions in 2025 will be $5.2 million, up from $1.8 million in 2021. This is a massive leap, driven by platforms throwing 100x leverage at retail investors like candy.
It is rational for traditional markets to limit leverage to 10x, while the crypto market's "full exposure" strategy is a marketing gimmick that turns traders into reckless gamblers. When a TRUMP whale cashed out $109 million in two days (New York Times, February 2025), it was not skill; it was a leverage lottery ticket. On the other hand, the counterparty of that trade lost $2 billion. This is not investing; I have said it many times before, this is a zero-sum bloodbath, and the data proves it is bigger and uglier than ever.
03. Institutions: Fishing While the Circus Burns
Institutional investors, the so-called "smart money," are not messing around in this leverage circus. BlackRock's IBIT ETF holds 550,000 BTC, and hedge funds like Millennium subscribed to $36 billion in Bitcoin ETPs in 2024 (Galaxy, 2025). But they are not chasing the 50x Memecoin surges. A report from Coinbase Institutional indicates that 82% of institutional crypto asset allocations in 2025 are long-term holdings, concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and possibly Solana, focusing on the "strategic reserve" narrative rather than the degradation of short-term trading.
Unlike retail investors who panic sell at every dip, institutions are gradually building positions. Why? Trump's comments on Bitcoin reserves and ETF approvals have them looking at a 5-10 year long-term outlook rather than quick doubles.
James Lavish of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund aptly stated at the 2024 New Orleans Investment Conference: "The shift of Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a strategic asset" is real, and institutions are betting it will surpass gold (currently about 11% of gold's market cap, changing daily). They will ride this bull market but will not be destroyed by leverage; that is the privilege of retail investors.
04. Trump's Economic Gamble: A Coin Toss Game of Recession Meets Crypto's Big Moment
Fast forward to mid-2025, the U.S. economy is walking on thin ice, and Trump is holding the balance beam. Picton Mahoney's report in October 2024 estimated a 75% probability of recession due to an un-inverted yield curve, rising bankruptcy rates, and a sluggish manufacturing sector.
Trump's response? Cut spending, impose hefty tariffs, and make a big bet on deregulation. This is a gamble that could either lead to a dollar collapse or ignite a crypto supernova. If inflation surges (core CPI has reached 3.1%, above the Fed's 2% target), Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative will receive rocket fuel.
The timing is peculiar; InvestingHaven's timeline analysis predicts a massive bull market will peak mid-year (breaking through in March-April 2025). But if Trump's tariffs stifle growth, retail wallets will be empty, and the bull market may stall.
The data is mixed; a survey by Security.org shows that 60% of Americans familiar with crypto believe Trump's return is beneficial for crypto, but some still doubt its safety. This is not a simple catalyst but a chaotic coin toss with global ripples.
05. Tariff Hedge or Collapse: The Crypto Recession Script
Will Trump's tariffs trigger a crypto hedging craze, hinder the bull market, or turn digital assets into the ultimate safe haven? The data leans towards the latter.
Coincub predicts that by the end of 2025, daily trading volume of stablecoins will reach $300-400 billion, up from $100 billion in November 2024, as businesses hedge against foreign exchange risks.
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs, such as real estate, art, bonds) is exploding, with market value expected to jump from $2.81 billion in 2023 to $9.82 billion by 2030 (Exploding Topics). Why? Liquidity and inflation resistance.
If the U.S. economy stumbles, the decoupling of crypto from the stock market (with correlation dropping to 0.3 in Q1 2025, according to Coinbase data) makes it a magnet for capital flight. But the key is that retail investors are already exhausted; you and I both know that. Economic stagnation could choke off the FOMO fuel needed for past bull markets. This could be the first bull market driven by institutions rather than retail investors, which is a mind-bending thought.
06. The Redemption Path for Retail Investors: Greed, Regret, and Empty Pockets
Talking to crypto veterans, the atmosphere is a mix of PTSD and cautious hope. Many were greedy in 2021, experienced the crash, and now just want to "break even."
Some have never returned since cashing out at the peak in 2021; I call them the smart ones. Others are still trading MeMe daily, chasing small wins of $500 while admitting it is "gambling addiction."
A 2025 poll by HODL FM found that 73% of long-term holders hope to at least break even in this cycle, but 40% have not re-entered since the 2022 bear market. The data is suffocating.
The truth is, retail investors are out of money. The funds that fueled the bull market in 2021 are gone, with the household savings rate dropping to 4.9% (Federal Reserve data), down from 7.5% before the pandemic. If this bull market ignites, it will not be fueled by the FOMO of parents but by institutional capital; retail investors will either hitch a ride or be left behind. A purely institution-driven bull market? Not only possible but likely a reality.
07. Gambling Won't Save Us: Where is the Real Fuel?
Desperation drives traders to leverage and Memecoins, but that is not enough.
The $2.2 billion in hacker losses in 2024 and the 19% of crypto holders facing withdrawal obstacles are sending out signals of distrust. Betting on MeMe will not inject fresh capital into the market; it is merely rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
New funds must come from elsewhere, such as ETFs (Galaxy predicts $250 billion AUM), corporate treasuries (MicroStrategy style), or nations (Trump's 207,000 BTC reserve plan). Without these, this bull market is just a mirage. We need to be realistic, right? That’s how we can get ahead and make money.
08. Open Creator Economy: AI's Global Bazaar in a Recession
AI is rewriting the rules of the game, and this bull market may give rise to an open creator economy that transcends borders. The surge of on-chain AI agents is expected to reach 1 million by 2025, involving trading, gaming, and building decentralized platforms.
What to trade in a recession? Data indicates: luxury goods (art NFTs up 45% in 2024), essential services (tokenized medical points), and speculative assets (yes, still Memecoins). AI makes it scalable; think of teenage traders tokenizing TikTok influence. All of this is happening, I am sure.
But it is not all sunshine. Masa's analysis points out that API restrictions and data bottlenecks could hinder growth. If successful, this bull market will become a global wealth transfer, not just a party in the U.S. If it fails, we are back to PVP within the circle.
09. Wealth Replacement: Patience Wins, Impatience Bleeds
The market is Darwinian, with patience seizing wealth from the impatient.
This bull market will witness wealth shifting from leveraged retail investors to prudent investors. The cycle begins and ends with the same narrative, as Memecoins fade and then resurge.
InvestingHaven predicts that Dogecoin and Shiba Inu will rebound after the MeMe craze peaks again. But the data is clear: 68% of Memecoin traders are losing money.
Who are the winners? The quietly accumulating institutions and veterans.
10. Conclusion: Find Your Position When the Music Stops
This bull market is a mess, with leverage madness, institutional restraint, Trump's wild bets, and the impending creator economy.
What makes it different is the bankruptcy of retail investors, the restraint of institutions, and the world's attention on an economic experiment that could make or break America.
The data screams volatility, but it also holds opportunities. Calmly and patiently choose your position; when the music stops, only the patient will remain.
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