BTC—History is repeating itself! Will we face a drop similar to May 19?

Fundamentals:

Bitcoin reserves are being established, and there are expectations for potential favorable policies from Trump.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the market expecting two rate cuts within the year, starting in July.

Technical Analysis:

Confirmation of a high-level top structure—double top.

The price is unable to break through the resistance at 91,000 again, currently in a downward continuation.

Compared to May 2021, the similarity to the May 19 market is significant, but it is important to note that before May 19, the trend had already been declining for a month, down 30%.

Due to the different fundamentals in 2025, there was no ETF at that time, and liquidity varies, making it uncertain how strong the downward trend will be.

Therefore, I estimate two most likely downward trends, Path 1 and Path 2.

But it should be noted that Path 2 will not be a straight line…

The analysis charts have expressed everything they need to, and if you don't understand, there's no need to ask; those who understand don't need to say anything.

So, I have always said that the second half of 2025 may be the opportunity to buy.

This includes potential expectations for interest rate cuts and the technical downward movement reaching its target.

If you believe that the last bull market ended in November 2021,

Then you also wouldn't consider the drop from 60,000 to 30,000 in April 2021 as the end of the bull market, right?

So, what if history repeats itself?

I am also curious whether Trump's presidency and the existence of ETFs will prevent history from simply repeating itself.

btc

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