In the past week, the BTC price has been consolidating in the short term between $82,000 and $83,000. On the 12th, the BTC price opened at $82,932.99 and closed on the 14th at $84,010.03, with a maximum fluctuation of 6.71% during the week. Influenced by geopolitical factors, the current BTC price hovers around $83,000, showing a slight rebound compared to last week, but there is strong resistance between $84,000 and $85,000, limiting the upward space. ETH was also in a sideways adjustment phase last week, with the current price hovering around $1,890, receiving support multiple times, and the maximum fluctuation during the week was 7.58% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of March 18, 15:00).
The newly released CPI data from the U.S. and the signing of a 30-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine have allowed U.S. stocks to catch a breather. As of the close on the 17th, all three major U.S. stock indices saw a slight rebound. The S&P 500, after falling into correction territory on the 13th (with a maximum drop of over 10%), still had buying interest, and large tech stocks outperformed the broader market. The U.S. dollar weakened significantly, with the euro rising 0.4% against the dollar.
Market Analysis
U.S. Stock Market Rebound Lacks Strength, Volatility Increases, Gold and Fixed Income Assets Become Major Beneficiaries
Last week, the global asset market experienced severe volatility, and market sentiment was once low, but technical indicators showed extreme overselling, leading to a rebound of over 2% in U.S. stocks on March 13 and 14. Major supporting factors included the alleviation of the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, no new tariffs or geopolitical risks, and the repair of the oversold state of U.S. stocks. However, trading volume remained low, limiting the rebound momentum.
According to Bloomberg reports, the S&P 500 (SPX) index fell more than 10% in 16 days, indicating an accelerated pace of market adjustment. JPMorgan noted that the current adjustment magnitude is 9.5%, relatively small, with an implied probability of economic recession at 33%. However, Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, indicating that the economic outlook remains under pressure, and some hedge funds have recently experienced withdrawals.
On the other hand, gold and fixed income assets have become major beneficiaries amid market uncertainty. The cryptocurrency market sentiment is lukewarm, with eMerge Engine data showing that ETH has continued to weaken, with a decline of nearly 48% since the beginning of the year. Overall, the market still faces uncertainty, especially with significant divergence in expectations for future economic growth and policy direction. Investors need to pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy changes, maintaining a cautious attitude, as market volatility may continue.
Gold Breaks Historical High, BTC May Enter Short-Term Consolidation
On March 15, COMEX gold first broke through $3,000, reaching a historical high of $3,004.86. UBS research predicts that gold will break through $3,200/ounce by 2025. The reasons include ongoing market risk aversion, macroeconomic uncertainty, worsening U.S. fiscal deficits, and international geopolitical risks, all of which will continue to support the upward movement of gold prices.
At the same time, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.37%, indicating that some funds have begun to withdraw from U.S. Treasuries to buy into the stock market. The current U.S. stock market has entered a correction phase, and BTC, constrained by the adjustment of U.S. stocks and the breakthrough of gold at a key psychological level, may enter short-term consolidation.
Stablecoin Inflows Decrease, Market Rebound Momentum Insufficient
According to eMerge Engine data on March 17, the inflow of dual-channel supply has significantly decreased, with a total inflow of $237 million, specifically showing that BTC Spot ETF saw an outflow of $842 million, ETH Spot ETF saw an outflow of $184 million, and stablecoin inflows were $1.264 billion.
Although stablecoin inflows have decreased and ETF outflows have increased, the inflow of existing funds has pushed the BTC price back up to $83,000. However, this rebound is mainly driven by a small amount of bottom-fishing behavior, and the current capital flow is insufficient to become the main force for a market reversal.
U.S. Senate Passes Stablecoin Regulation Bill: Algorithmic Stablecoins Face Two-Year Ban
On March 13, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed a stablecoin regulation bill, bringing a milestone regulatory framework to the cryptocurrency market. The market is generally optimistic about the compliance prospects of mainstream stablecoins like USDT and USDC. However, the bill imposes a two-year ban on stablecoins that "rely solely on self-created digital assets as collateral" (such as algorithmic stablecoins) and requires the Treasury Department to study their risks.
This ban has sparked widespread concern about the future development of algorithmic stablecoins. The ban is primarily aimed at preventing systemic risks, increasing market transparency, and protecting investors, but it also leaves room for adjustment for hybrid model projects. The Treasury Department's research results will determine whether these projects can continue to develop, thus increasing market uncertainty.
Macroeconomic Dynamics
U.S. February CPI Slightly Below Expectations, Consumer Confidence Declines
On March 12, the U.S. released the latest CPI data, with the seasonally unadjusted CPI for February rising 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9%. This indicates a slowdown in inflation, alleviating the market panic caused by last week's employment data, and market sentiment turned mild.
However, the preliminary consumer confidence index data released by the University of Michigan on March 14 showed a contrary trend. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9, far below the market expectation of 63.1, and significantly down from the previous value of 64.7. At the same time, the one-year inflation expectation preliminary value rose to 4.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2%, and up from the previous value of 4.3%. This indicates that due to the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policy, U.S. consumers' concerns about the economic outlook have intensified, putting pressure on market sentiment.
EU Retaliatory Tariffs May Trigger BTC Pullback
On March 12, the European Commission announced that starting in April, it would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth €26 billion ($28 billion) in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imported steel and aluminum. The EU's latest retaliatory tariffs have intensified macroeconomic uncertainty, which may lead to increased volatility in BTC prices. This move could trigger new trade war concerns and market fluctuations in the short term.
Analyst Shaohua believes: "The introduction of retaliatory tariffs is not a positive signal and may lead to BTC prices pulling back from $83,855 to the key support level of $75,000. A short-term drop below $72,000 in the current bull market cycle can be seen as a 'macro adjustment,' after which BTC still has the potential to continue rising."
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
