Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher
Editor: TB, ChainCatcher
Every cycle of bull and bear markets always brings a batch of curious new faces. In their eyes, Ethereum is often seen as an important threshold to enter the crypto world—technologically advanced, ecologically mature, and with a solid industry position.
But is reality really that beautiful?
On one side is the trust that newcomers have in Ethereum, and on the other is the market's cold indifference. After communicating with several university students majoring in blockchain, we found that there may be a disconnect between their expectations and the current state of ETH.
Are these hopeful newcomers the builders of the future, or merely transient visitors who will be ruthlessly eliminated by the market?
Ethereum from the Perspective of Newcomers: Trust, Technology, and Understanding
Tusi
A freshman student majoring in blockchain, completely new to the field, has not yet engaged in cryptocurrency or contract trading.
Tusi has not entered the market yet, as he believes his knowledge is insufficient and is hesitant to invest recklessly. However, when discussing Ethereum, he expressed a natural sense of trust, considering it a leading project and relatively authoritative.
When asked if he would consider buying ETH in the future, he said he would think about it, as he believes the risk of ETH seems smaller compared to other cryptocurrencies.
Lucien
A senior student majoring in blockchain engineering, primarily focused on smart contract development and has limited market knowledge. ETH accounts for 20% of his cryptocurrency spot investments. Overall, he is optimistic about Ethereum.
From his perspective, Lucien believes that Ethereum's technology is developing and that its growth is driving the industry's development. For example, a recent upgrade to Ethereum significantly reduced gas fees on the chain, lowering user interaction costs. The improvements from the Cancun upgrade are also more developer-friendly, such as the new opcode in EIP1153 becoming an important component of Uniswap V4.
However, he also pointed out that Ethereum's framework is relatively mature, and current improvements are mainly optimizations, so the growth rate is relatively limited.
Vernon
A blockchain engineering graduate for nearly a year, focusing on meme coins and contract trading, with a preference for short-term operations.
Among all crypto assets, ETH is the only large-cap coin that Vernon has invested in, mainly for wealth management and risk diversification. When discussing his choice of ETH, he mentioned that he bought it when the price had dropped significantly, and this cycle had not yet broken the historical high, leading him to believe there was still room for growth.
Regarding ETH's lackluster performance in this cycle, he expressed understanding and shared a similar viewpoint with Lucien—that Ethereum's challenge lies in limited innovation. Nowadays, Ethereum finds it difficult to implement large-scale reforms, and the pace of innovation has become cautious and fragmented.
Although the three newcomers have different perspectives, they all hold a favorable view of Ethereum and recognize its value. In other words, Ethereum's "popularity" among newcomers remains strong, like a "friendly big brother" in the crypto world. However, ideals are often grand, and reality may not be as optimistic as they perceive; the current state of Ethereum may not be as bright as the newcomers think.
Ethereum in Reality: How Long Can Faith Last?
New Demand for ETH Gradually Weakens
Crypto KOL Murphy published an article revealing the current state of investors through ETH data: high-position investors are increasing their holdings, but new demand for ETH is weakening. After ETH fell below $2,000, there has been almost no new buying power.
The recent Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) data for ETH shows two main holding groups:
- High-position accumulation group ($3,200-$3,500): These investors did not sell during ETH's drop to $1,900 and continued to accumulate, showing strong faith and willingness to hold.
- Median reduction group ($2,600-$2,800): This group of holders gradually cut losses after ETH fell below $2,300, with only a portion of their holdings remaining.
CBD data for ETH over the past three months
Controversy Over ETH "Deflation Failure"
Peking University PhD Hu Yilin published an article stating that the so-called "deflation" of ETH is essentially a failed design. Under the PoS mechanism, even if the total supply of ETH is decreasing, it does not mean fair or healthy development.
He pointed out that Ethereum's economic model has structural inequalities—stakers are always the "inflated" side, while frequent traders bear the cost of "deflation." The wealthy, vested interests, and old money always sit comfortably in the profit zone; the more active the network trading, the more gas fees are burned, leading to more ETH deflation, benefiting them. For newcomers, retail investors, and lower-tier traders, the more frequently they trade, the heavier the gas fee burden, which is further squeezed by the deflation mechanism.
Hu Yilin sharply summarized: under the ETH system, old money can not only outperform inflation with zero risk but also enjoy interest; even under the deflation mechanism, the "faucet" for old money has not only not been turned off but has been turned on even more vigorously.
Whales Frequently Exiting
According to on-chain analyst Ali's shared data, in the past week, whale addresses sold nearly 130,000 ETH.
- On March 13, the whale address ..eCa41 liquidated 6,401 ETH bought in December 2023, incurring a loss of $1.974 million.
- On March 14, an ETH whale, after holding for 25 years, deposited 16,467 ETH to HTX, potentially profiting $13.1 million.
- On March 17, a wallet dormant for three years sold all 67 ETH (worth $1.92 million), making only $126,000 in profit.
- ……
Don't Let Faith Turn into a Mass Exodus
In a world bustling with activity, everyone is driven by profit.
The brand, technology, and ecosystem that Ethereum has accumulated over the years have shaped the trust newcomers have in it, making them willing to settle down, learn, try, and explore here.
But the market is ruthless…
Ethereum, don't let them learn only one thing in the end—"to run fast."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
