I. Fundamental Analysis

Conveying the way of trading, enjoying a wise life.

Federal Reserve Meeting: This week, the Federal Reserve meeting has become the market focus. Around March 20, the Federal Reserve will announce the benchmark interest rate, currently at 4.5. If the rate is higher than expected, it will drive the dollar index up, leading to further declines in cryptocurrencies; if it meets expectations, it will be favorable for cryptocurrencies. However, overall, the probability of the rate remaining unchanged is very high. For Bitcoin's price trend, students should pay close attention to the important resistance zone of $85,000 - $86,000. It is expected that after the March 20 meeting, the market may experience short-term fluctuations.

ETF Data: In terms of macro data, the fund flow of Bitcoin ETFs is under close scrutiny. On March 13, Bitcoin ETFs saw an outflow of $100 million again. Looking back, the highest outflow amount reached $400 million, while inflows were in the tens of millions. Overall, the funds show a bearish trend, indicating that many people are pessimistic about Bitcoin's recent performance. It is worth noting that when Bitcoin ETFs experience net inflows exceeding $100 million for three consecutive days, the market may be nearing a bottom. Currently, such bottom signals have not yet appeared.

Whale Movements: Whales, as important participants in the market, have a significant impact on market dynamics. In the past week, whales reduced their holdings by 3,700 Bitcoins, while others slightly increased their positions, resulting in minimal overall fluctuation. This phenomenon indicates that whales do not have a strong willingness to buy the dip, and the market is still waiting for clearer bottom signals.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin formed a Spinning Top candlestick last week. The previous week and the week before that were a Hammer and a Long Bearish Candle, respectively, with the Long Bearish Candle representing a solid downward retracement. The Spinning Top candlestick has both upper and lower shadows, with a small body in the middle, indicating a game of divergence between bulls and bears. At this point, downward momentum is beginning to weaken, but upward momentum has not yet fully formed.

Bitcoin's price is at the lower boundary of the channel, which not only has support from the channel's lower boundary at $76,000 - $77,000 but also includes the important 50-week moving average support, forming a double support. The appearance of a special candlestick combination at this position suggests that in this month or in the short term, Bitcoin's price is very likely to find significant support around the relatively low range of $75,000 - $80,000.

Jiu Ge suggests that if there is an opportunity to retrace to the $75,000 - $80,000 area, students must remember to build positions. Although the final target for the decline has not yet been reached, holding positions in this area is of great significance.

Looking at the MACD indicator on the weekly level, Bitcoin has adjusted for the seventh week, but its MACD on the weekly level remains above the zero line, indicating a bullish phenomenon. Currently, the indicator has not fallen below the zero line; if Bitcoin can stabilize above $80,000, there may be signs of improvement in the future. In the remaining time of the first half of the year, there may be an important buying opportunity.

On the daily level, Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average. Currently, both its bottom and top are continuously rising, but it fell below the 200-day moving average again yesterday, with the price consolidating below the 200-day moving average (around $83,900, approximately $84,000). The MACD indicator has begun to show signs of flattening, indicating a weakening of Bitcoin's downward momentum.

The important resistance level for Bitcoin upwards is at $85,000. From the perspective of the daily Bollinger Bands' middle line, its direction is downward, and Bitcoin's price may encounter resistance at this position. However, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands has started to turn, which is a good sign, but $85,000 remains a strong resistance level.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's bottom is continuously rising, with the upper resistance level at $85,000, showing an overall upward triangular trend. The $85,000 level is crucial; if it breaks through this position, Bitcoin's price will test $86,000 and $90,000.

If it breaks below $82,000, the price will again retrace to around $80,000, which is also a buying opportunity. As long as the current support level holds, Bitcoin's price will still test $85,000.

Looking back at the LAYER token from the spot trading class, it has broken through a very critical position. At that time, students were reminded to place orders, successfully capturing the price fluctuation opportunity, with a short-term profit of 15%. If this token does not fall below the critical position, Jiu Ge believes it may test the previous high of $1.52.

Recently, we will add several new teachers covering both contract and spot trading, and we have introduced quantitative trading signals and AI machines to assist in selecting coins and pushing signals. Joining us now will allow students to enjoy many preferential policies and benefits; do not miss this opportunity.

For more information, you can follow our media account [Jiu Ye Crypto Theory] or contact our assistant to join the VIP group. You can also gain access to our bottom-fishing and top-exiting column content by sharing, commenting, and liking.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。