No wrong investments, no bad years.

Written by: Blockchain Knight

Since BTC broke through $100,000, the entire Crypto market has not seen a continuous rise but rather a persistent decline for three months. The most frequently seen term recently is "returning to poverty," as many players who originally profited well are now struggling anew.

On one hand, BTC ETFs are making a grand entrance onto the historical stage, while on the other hand, the market is deteriorating severely. In the face of such a terrible market, surviving the ups and downs of volatility can no longer rely on the same mindset as in previous cycles, because we must admit — the market has changed.

So how do we survive in this market that makes us want to curse? I have recently come across some good viewpoints and thoughts, which I would like to share.

Let’s first consider a question: in high-level tennis matches at the Grand Slam level, is technique more important, or is mindset more important? And what about in matches among ordinary amateur players?

To answer this question, Dr. Simon Ramo, a scientist and statistician, wrote an excellent book on tennis strategy titled "Extraordinary Tennis for the Ordinary Player."

Through long-term observation, he discovered that there are two forms of tennis: one is the matches between professional players and a few genius amateurs; the other is the competition among ordinary amateur enthusiasts. Although both use the same equipment and follow the same rules, their essence is vastly different.

Through systematic scientific statistical research, Dr. Ramo concluded: professional players win matches by scoring actively, while amateur players lose points due to errors. Professional players engage in long and exciting rallies with precise and powerful shots, continuously applying pressure to force their opponents into mistakes. These top players rarely make errors; their matches can be described as "winner's games," where the outcome entirely depends on the winner's proactive actions. Victory not only means scoring higher points but also achieving dominance through active scoring.

In contrast, amateur tennis presents a completely different state. Brilliant shots, thrilling prolonged rallies, and miraculous saves are rare. Instead, the ball frequently hits the net or goes out of bounds, and service faults are common. Amateur players rarely truly defeat their opponents but often self-sabotage. The reason the winners in such matches score higher is often due to their opponents making more mistakes.

Dr. Ramo validated his theory through innovative methods: he abandoned the traditional scoring system and instead focused on the ratio of points scored to points lost. The data showed that in professional matches, 80% of points scored come from active offense, while in amateur matches, 80% of points scored come from opponents' errors.

This means that professional tennis is a typical "winner's game," where the outcome is determined by the superior performance of the winner; amateur tennis, on the other hand, is a "loser's game," where the outcome depends on the number of mistakes made by the loser. The two types of matches are fundamentally different.

Based on this discovery, Dr. Ramo constructed a complete winning strategy: ordinary players only need to follow the simple tactic of "reducing errors and inducing opponents to self-destruct" to continue winning matches.

He clearly pointed out that if the goal is to win rather than to entertain, the core strategy should be solid defense, maintaining a high success rate in shots, and providing opponents with ample room to make mistakes. After all, amateur players often find themselves deeply entrenched in the "loser's game" without realizing it, ultimately leading to their own defeat.

Dr. Ramo revealed in his book the essential differences between "winner's games" and "loser's games": the so-called "winner's game" depends on skills that exceed expectations, while in a "loser's game," victory depends on making fewer mistakes than other players.

Charles Ellis, hailed by Forbes as "the smartest man on Wall Street" and one of the leaders in the investment industry, categorized modern investing as a loser's game and wrote a bestselling book titled "Winning the Loser's Game."

As Ellis stated in his book, investing is like playing tennis; winners can achieve better long-term performance by making fewer mistakes, while losers ultimately incur losses because they keep making the same mistakes. No one can avoid making new mistakes, but successful investors have a lower frequency of repeating old mistakes.

Returning to the Crypto market, it was once a winner's game, where participation and victory required above-average skills. However, today, the Crypto market has largely transformed into a loser's game — make fewer mistakes, and simply surviving can lead to victory.

Thus, the logic becomes that as long as we do not engage in any overstepping actions while others are frantically PvPing or leveraging excessively, we can greatly increase our chances of winning in this game.

This is also why a few years ago, one could simply buy with closed eyes when a bull market arrived and profit, but that is no longer the case, as this game has undergone a fundamental change. Over 90% of players in the market do not need particularly sophisticated operational techniques and strategies; what matters is reducing the frequency of mistakes to achieve above-average returns.

As Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital, said: "For me, to achieve long-term success in investing, perhaps the best way is to avoid mistakes, not make wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as we accumulate good investments one by one, and maintain steady performance year after year, over twenty, thirty, forty, or fifty years, that will lead to a successful investment career."

That’s all. Let’s encourage each other. I hope we can all achieve our victories in this game.

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