I would like to add to what the class-skipping friend mentioned. The rise in M2 does not necessarily mean that funds will enter the market, nor does it indicate an increase in market liquidity. The growth of M2 could merely be an increase in bank reserves, especially considering the global M2 data. Additionally, taking into account the previous lag, even if it is indeed the case, it might only be at the points I marked.

Most importantly, whether or not a recession is coming is crucial. If a recession does occur, the validity of this chart will be even worse. Of course, if we can really achieve a soft landing, then it is indeed possible. Therefore, the best approach is to gradually build positions on dips, buying a little each time in uncertain situations, and investing larger amounts when the situation becomes clearer.

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