BTC remains under pressure, ETH shows weak rebound, and mainstream coins like SOL and BNB are also demonstrating their strengths. Today, we will start from the technical aspects of a 45-minute custom cycle to take a look at the latest dynamics of these hot coins.
BTC: Insufficient Rebound Volume
- Technical Signal: EMA12 has crossed below the Vegas channel, indicating a weak short-term trend. The current price is testing the resistance of the EMA52 moving average, which acts like a "ceiling"; without breaking through, significant progress is unlikely.
- Outlook: If BTC can break through the EMA52 with volume, there may be hope for a short-term recovery; otherwise, the risk of a pressured pullback is high. Pay attention to the key support level at $80,300.
ETH: Weak Rebound
- Technical Signal: The rebound strength is gradually weakening, with lower highs and lows forming a descending channel. Although the price is above the EMA52 moving average, the MACD fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis, indicating that the bulls have not yet truly gained strength. Meanwhile, the KD line in the KDJ has entered the overbought zone, suggesting potential short-term pullback pressure.
- Interpretation: Staying above the EMA52 is a positive sign, but the conflicting signals from MACD and KD tell us that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and market sentiment is still hesitant.
- Outlook: If ETH cannot hold above the EMA52 ($1881), it may retest $1807; if it breaks through $1950 with volume, the trend will be considered reversed.
SOL: Triangular Convergence Hides Secrets
- Technical Signal: The price is forming a converging triangle, with decreasing volatility. It has now crossed above the EMA52 moving average but is approaching the upper limit of the Vegas channel, while the K-line shows a "cloud cover" reversal pattern.
- Interpretation: The triangular convergence indicates that a significant trend is brewing. The breakout above the EMA52 is a bullish signal, but the "cloud cover" combined with the pressure from the Vegas channel suggests that bears are also lurking.
- Outlook: If SOL can break through the Vegas channel ($125) with volume, it could rise to $140; if it faces resistance and falls back, watch for support at $115.
BNB: Volume Remains a Weakness
- Technical Signal: After forming a "morning star" pattern, the price broke through the EMA52 moving average, and the MACD also showed a golden cross, indicating a clear bullish signal technically, but the trading volume did not increase accordingly.
- Interpretation: The morning star and MACD golden cross are "double insurance" for the rebound, but without accompanying volume, it’s like an engine running out of fuel—it won’t go far.
- Outlook: If BNB can increase volume and break through $590, the next target will be $615; if the volume continues to shrink, beware of a false breakout and a pullback to $570.
PEPE: Insufficient Momentum After Breakthrough
- Technical Signal: After a volume breakout above the EMA24 moving average in the 45-minute and 90-minute cycles, the volume did not continue to follow through. The MACD shows a golden cross below the zero axis, indicating rebound potential.
- Interpretation: Breaking through the EMA24 is a positive signal, but the shrinking volume indicates that buyers are not sufficiently confident, and the MACD golden cross is only "half a foot" stable.
- Outlook: If PEPE can hold above the EMA24 and increase volume, it may aim for $0.0{5}768; if it fails to hold, the support at $0.0{5}66 is the last line of defense.
TRUMP: Short-term Heat, Daily Breakthrough Imminent
- Technical Signal: Short-term volume increase, with the daily level approaching the EMA12 moving average ($11.8). If it breaks through, the next target is $13.6, with support at $10 below.
- Interpretation: The volume increase is a signal driven by funds, and the EMA12 is a key short-term resistance; whether it breaks or not will determine the strength of the trend.
- Outlook: If it can hold above $11.8, $13.6 is within reach; if it faces resistance and falls back, the $10 support will be tested.
XRP: Support Holds Steady, Pressure Hard to Break
- Technical Signal: The price has repeatedly found support at the EMA52 moving average, but the 8-hour cycle shows a "cloud cover" pattern. Currently, it is under pressure at the EMA52, with a resistance level at $2.34.
- Interpretation: The EMA52 is a reliable support, but the "cloud cover" suggests that bears are in control, and the pressure at $2.34 is significant.
- Outlook: If it cannot break through $2.34, it may retest $2.0; if it can break above with volume, the rebound potential opens up to $2.5.
DOGE: Channel Under Pressure, Indicators Hide Concerns
- Technical Signal: The price has faced pressure multiple times at the Vegas channel, with the EMA24 and EMA52 moving averages converging, but there has been no significant increase in trading volume, and OBV shows signs of crossing below MAOBV.
- Interpretation: The convergence of moving averages indicates a choice of direction, and the Vegas channel is a strong resistance. The downward trend in OBV suggests pressure from capital outflows.
- Outlook: If it cannot break through the resistance zone of $0.17~$0.172, it will continue to face pressure in the short term, with support at $0.15 below; a breakthrough could aim for $0.18.
Summary: Market Divergence, Who Will Be the Next Dark Horse?
- Opportunities: Focus on SOL's triangular breakout, BNB's volume recovery opportunities, and TRUMP's short-term surge.
- Risk Points: Beware of ETH's overbought pullback, and XRP and DOGE facing downward pressure.
Technical analysis is just a tool; capital and news are equally crucial. Whether bottom-fishing or chasing highs, it’s essential to combine your strategy, keep an eye on volume and key levels, and not be swayed by market sentiment!
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