Belief cannot make money, so only the belief in making money remains.

Author: Cookie

At the end of last year, during a dinner with friends I met on my journey, I was asked if there were any interesting things happening in the crypto world right now.

I mentioned the trend of Bitcoin inscriptions in 2023, the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, the speculative frenzy around meme coins on Solana, and the historical new highs of Bitcoin, among other things.

My friend just smiled and shook his head, saying, "It's all a bit lacking."

This friend of mine had bought a lot of related conceptual assets during the time when various celebrities were rushing to buy or even personally issue NFTs, when Facebook rebranded to Meta and gambled on the metaverse, and when various DAO organizations were trying to buy a copy of the U.S. Constitution, an NBA team, or an island to build a utopia. To this day, he has not sold any of those assets.

These narratives have become yesterday's news in the eyes of the crypto world, even seen as "scams." So, as someone who has only briefly experienced the crypto world and is considered an "outsider" by its definition, I was curious about how she viewed such opinions and whether she thought those investments were failures.

Her answer was:

Of course not. Before I bought in, I had no understanding or interest in the crypto world, but NFTs, the metaverse, and DAOs were the trends at the time. I felt that if I didn't participate, I would truly be left behind. I know my NFTs have dropped a lot since then, but I hardly paid attention to it again and wouldn't consider it a failed investment. It's like when my family bought a Pentium computer for me as a child; who would say that buying a computer was a failure just because the Pentium processor became outdated?

I said that this example is not appropriate because buying a computer is consumption, while buying NFTs or metaverse land is investment. She laughed and said that at least for her, NFTs and metaverse land are not investments but consumption. Because investment is rational and is not driven by novelty and trendy emotional factors, and investment cannot bring about novelty and trendy feelings.

Blockchain belongs to the young, and Web3 belongs to the young. We can use it to change the world or create a world of our own. But now, the crypto world is rapidly losing that appeal.

Belief cannot make money, so only the belief in making money remains

The current crypto world is struggling in the myth and disappointment of "creative exhaustion" and is sinking downwards.

What can blockchain technology really do? Over the years of development in the cryptocurrency industry, an endless stream of new narratives has provided continuous momentum for the industry's growth, allowing the "market dream rate" of cryptocurrencies to be maintained. From the legendary story of buying 2 pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins, which spontaneously established the value of a new generation of currency, to the Ethereum ICO frenzy that turned blockchain into a new, decentralized asset issuance and financing platform, to DeFi (decentralized finance) upgrading blockchain into a bank capable of lending and supporting a series of financial operations, and then to the emergence of "consumer-grade applications" like NFTs, the metaverse, and games.

Blockchain can change the world, and cryptocurrencies can change the world. As long as one holds such a belief and maintains a curious mindset towards all new technological innovations while staying in this circle, one will eventually wait for their opportunity and reap their rewards. In the past, many young people were attracted by the vigor of cryptocurrencies, diving into the crypto wave as the brave tide-makers of the era, changing their lives in the wonderful journey of cryptocurrencies.

From the end of 2021 to 2022, celebrities around the world rushed to buy or even personally issue NFTs, Facebook rebranded to Meta and gambled on the metaverse, and various DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) emerged like mushrooms after rain, trying to buy a copy of the U.S. Constitution, an NBA team, or an island to build a utopia. That was the "golden age" of blockchain, or Web3, in my heart. In 2022, in Dali, there was a very lively and "literary" Web3 street meeting, which started with two or three local youth community members and gradually expanded to thirty or forty people, eventually nearing 100, completing the event in a very decentralized manner powered by love.

Also in 2022, the "Jumping Sea" tavern, which later received tens of millions in angel round financing, gained more attention due to its unique "Web3" characteristics. The tavern's owner, Liang You, said in an interview at the time that he was not a person from the Web3 circle, but the organizational structure of the "Jumping Sea" tavern adopted a DAO model from Web3 and even issued the country's first Bored Ape-themed beer.

Twitter is the most active social media in the crypto world. In the past, you could see various analyses and industry outlooks on the crypto industry, sharing or debating different viewpoints on the industry's development directions. Nowadays, such content has lost its market and has become scarce. Instead, discussions revolve around what the Binance founder CZ's dog is named, the "success stories" of various "crypto gods," and even discussions about "female college students" and "business K."

Such changes are a direct reflection of the crypto world falling into the myth of "value innovation" and experiencing a "broken heart." When the U.S. government became increasingly friendly towards cryptocurrencies, the crypto world naturally felt joy, but there was also fear and unease about "this being the last bull market." Initially, when the narratives around NFT "digital luxury goods" or metaverse land "digital real estate dreams" began to decline, the crypto world would blame the project teams for not doing well enough. Gradually, they stopped blaming and instead became indifferent, scoffing at various narratives.

In this disillusionment, exchanges, market makers, and KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) have become the most powerful entities in the crypto world. If a coin can be listed on an exchange, it means that there are enough users participating who are not trading on the blockchain. If a coin has market makers behind it, it means there is capital "organizing the game," capable of artificially creating price trends to make the "game" lively; in the crypto world, these "game organizing" funds are often seen as "conspiracy groups." If a coin has KOLs involved, it means KOLs will also have to cheer for their holdings; the most powerful KOLs are referred to as "leaders," and even if they do not directly promote on Twitter, people will track their on-chain behavior to buy in.

Recently, at the Consensus 2025 conference held in Hong Kong, many people in the crypto world joked that although the conference was called the "Consensus Conference," it seemed that those seeking consensus did not find it. During the conference, project teams were still able to spend lavishly, renting various high-end venues to host exquisite events, even spending 600,000 Hong Kong dollars on drinks in one night.

But the revelry cannot erase the confusion and anxiety of the crypto world about "where are we headed." In the crypto world, there are no longer fairy tales where belief can bring returns, only the belief in making money remains.

The "Nasdaq-ification" of the crypto world, the original sin of the "second religion of crypto"

When the crypto world subconsciously began to compare itself to a decentralized "Nasdaq," the cracks in cryptocurrency, the world's largest "cyber religion," began to show.

The value of cryptocurrency can be interpreted from different angles by different people, with the most common perspective likely being from finance. But in my view, the value of cryptocurrency has always been the value of belief, the value of the "cyber religion."

From buying 2 pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins, to becoming "hard currency on the dark web," to becoming the legal tender of El Salvador, and then to the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve. One great achievement after another cannot be planned or predicted. It is the belief of people around the world in Bitcoin that has allowed this "cyber religion" to traverse a magnificent 16 years. If no one sincerely believes that Bitcoin will become the world currency in the future, if no one believes that Satoshi Nakamoto will never move the approximately 1 million Bitcoins he/she owns, Bitcoin could never have steadily developed to where it is today.

The "Nasdaq-ification" of the crypto world began with the birth of Ethereum. This was actually the first split of the "cyber religion," marking the formal formation of the "second religion of crypto." Bitcoin fundamentalists adhere to the positioning of "currency" and do not want Bitcoin's blockchain to pursue "doing more" at the cost of even a little bit of security, stability, or decentralization. Bitcoin believers trust in the value of Bitcoin itself, while Ethereum believers believe they can and should create more value.

"Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum is silver." Through ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, the metaverse, blockchain games, and other new blockchain technology attempts, Ethereum has reached its peak, ultimately achieving such a status in the hearts of crypto enthusiasts. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin was also at the height of his fame at that time, becoming the second "god" in the crypto world after Satoshi Nakamoto.

But in fact, the "second religion of crypto" has been very unstable from the beginning, because whether it is gold or silver, the world does not need these two precious metals to hand in their answers to "what can they do" to prove their own value. From this perspective, Bitcoin can completely rival gold, but Ethereum cannot be compared to silver. Because from the moment Ethereum was born, it has been on a path that requires constant validation of its value, just like our helpless lives, which always need to hand in answers.

Rather than saying Vitalik Buterin is a "god," it is more accurate to say he is more like the Steve Jobs of the crypto world. Now, his situation seems to echo the early days of Jobs. In 1985, Apple faced competition from IBM and saw a decline in performance; due to disagreements with most of the management, Jobs was kicked out of Apple's board. Nearly 20 years later, Ethereum faced competition from Solana and saw a decline in performance. When Vitalik Buterin expressed that he would not actively seek "reconciliation" with the government as a favorable move, he transitioned from "V God" to "V Dog."

On the crowdfunding platform Kickstarter, many games have taken a long time from completing fundraising to final development and delivery. "Shenmue 3" took over 4 years, and "Star Citizen" has been in Alpha testing for over 12 years. But in the highly speculative cryptocurrency market, Vitalik Buterin cannot expect the market to have that much patience.

However, the various explorations of new blockchain technologies that have occurred on Ethereum need the right timing, location, and people to "walk" and be useful. Taking NFTs as an example, from the birth of CryptoPunks to the explosive popularity of NFTs, it took about 4 years. If NFTs have found the application direction of "new artistic medium" for blockchain technology, the computer-generated art through algorithms has its origins dating back to the 1950s, and it took about 70 years to find blockchain technology to give this art form uniqueness and traceability, ultimately finding the perfect presentation form—after all, if one merely prints out images generated by computer algorithms, the charm would undoubtedly be greatly diminished.

Why has the crypto world lost its patience this time?

Real Bull Market or Fake Bull Market?

Because Bitcoin reached a historical high last year.

In the crypto world, the term "carving a boat to seek a sword" is specifically used to refer to capturing the next big market by referencing past rising experiences. One of the iron laws of "carving a boat to seek a sword" is that the Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, will trigger a big market. Bitcoin will rise and set a historical high, while altcoins led by Ethereum will become the protagonists of the "second half" of the bull market, with various new blockchain technology narratives bringing forth one wealth myth after another with returns of dozens or even hundreds of times.

When Bitcoin set a historical high again last year, the crypto world still believed in this iron law. However, unlike previous bull markets, this time, the crypto world is more anxious. This anxiety stems from a loss of faith—now that even the U.S. government has come in to "take over," the opportunities left for retail investors will become fewer and fewer.

For most people in the crypto world, Bitcoin's historical high does not directly yield profits because Bitcoin's market cap is too large, making it difficult to achieve financial freedom quickly by investing in Bitcoin. What everyone hopes for is the "altcoin" frenzy that follows Bitcoin's historical high.

This time, the objective conditions for replicating the "altcoin" frenzy do not exist. First, the funds for purchasing Bitcoin spot ETFs are actually active in traditional financial markets and do not directly enter the blockchain, unlike in the past when they participated in DeFi, NFTs, and metaverse activities on-chain. Second, there has not emerged a new, refreshing, and unifying crypto-native narrative within the crypto world, let alone one that can attract the attention and participation of outsiders.

But after waiting for three years, is this the result? The crypto world is unwilling to accept it; the "unwillingness" has formed a false bull market, which insiders refer to as "PvP"—in the last bull market, everyone spread the new narrative with a shared enthusiasm and vision, and the concept of Web3 even spread to some non-blockchain industries. This time, however, there is no consensus on a new narrative; everyone just wants to be a "smart person," winning from the losses of others.

This resembles the ending of "Alice in the Land of the Dead"—one difficult survival game after another is actually the last survival thought of dying people who have suffered from a meteorite impact, collectively creating an illusion.

For the "cyber religion," this is a very bad situation, releasing a very dangerous signal—within the confusion and disappointment, and the anxiety of making money, the crypto world has stripped away its idealism and sanctity.

Pessimistic honesty is actually a helpless self-deprecation

The crypto world has begun to refer to cryptocurrencies as a "big casino."

Last year, I met a friend I had known for a long time who specialized in meme coins. Meme coins were his entry point into the cryptocurrency market and are almost the only track he is interested in within the crypto market.

"I just think this stuff is fun; it's something our generation plays with. Meme coins, or even if you take the word 'coin' away, are whimsical and not well understood in reality, but in the cryptocurrency market, everyone recognizes this thing, this culture. When I realized that my sense of smell or aesthetic for these things could make money, I thought meme coins were just too cool and fun."

After he finished speaking, we clinked our glasses together. As the alcohol spread through my body, flashes of those meme coins that once excited me raced through my mind, such as $DOGE, derived from the world-famous Shiba Inu meme and repeatedly mentioned by Musk, and $PEOPLE, which aimed to purchase a copy of the U.S. Constitution…

But now, the once-powerful key of "fun" for meme coins has almost lost its effectiveness. Stripping everything away and closing my eyes, only one word remains:

"Gamble"

Solana, the most bustling "crypto casino" in this round of fake bull market, has seen over 640,000 meme coins appear since April 1 of last year, and this is just the data up to early July last year. This means that in just three months, an average of over 7,000 new meme coins appeared daily on Solana.

The disappearance of "cyber religion believers" corresponds to the emergence of "crypto gamblers." The "crypto gamblers" post strings of letters and numbers mixed together, known as "addresses," on various chat software; this is abbreviated as "CA," which means the contract address of the token in Chinese. With this address, one can accurately locate the token that needs to be traded.

"Smart money" and "dev" are the most concerning factors for "crypto gamblers." "Smart money" is equivalent to "crypto gods"; these blockchain addresses are sought after in daily transactions due to their high win rates, and their trading actions will attract many "crypto gamblers" to follow and buy. "Dev" is short for "developer," referring to the creators of the tokens. "Crypto gamblers" need a relatively reliable "game initiator" and try to avoid participating in "games" initiated by token creators who have a history of massive sell-offs right after launch.

Objectively speaking, this round of fake bull market has created the most wealth stories through the narrative of the "crypto casino." However, this should have been an honest acknowledgment of the current situation, but it ultimately turned into a numb justification.

This is the most serious challenge that the cryptocurrency "cyber religion" has faced to date—when the idealism and sanctity of an industry show cracks, no one knows when or how these cracks will be repaired.

Can this crack even be repaired?

The consensus around cryptocurrencies is not unbreakable; it needs to continue to grow

The greatest value of the new narratives created by blockchain technology innovation attempts in the crypto world lies in allowing the "cyber religion" to present itself in a more diversified manner to the world, enabling more people to develop interest in and gain deeper understanding of cryptocurrencies through different avenues. In the past, this was in a positive feedback loop with the growth of cryptocurrency prices, but now, it has decoupled.

The price growth of cryptocurrencies primarily reinforces the faith of existing "believers." The astonishing wealth stories created by cryptocurrencies do not directly aid in the "preaching" of cryptocurrencies.

Does the crypto world need new narratives? Yes. Is it urgent? Not urgent. The world is constantly evolving, and technological advancements will bring about a continuous stream of new demands. It is very likely that the answer to the question of "what else can blockchain do" will automatically emerge next year, or even tomorrow. Even if it doesn't, did the original narratives do well enough? No, they can still be improved, and exploration must continue.

If cryptocurrencies are merely a "casino," just a paradise for speculators, then it has already begun its countdown to death. How the crypto world views this industry will determine how this industry presents itself to the world.

This generation of young people may still find cryptocurrencies cool, but what about the next generation, and the generation after that? How will they view cryptocurrencies?

I don't know, my friend; the answer is blowing in the wind.

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