Nearly 90% of economists predict that Trump will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy, which is a major obstacle for the Bank of Japan in raising interest rates.
Author: Yang Dapan
According to a foreign media survey, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its key interest rate at the meeting on March 19, with more than two-thirds of economists predicting that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% in the third quarter (most likely in July).
The survey also found that 90% of economists expect U.S. President Trump's tariff policies to have a negative or slightly negative impact on the Japanese economy.
The survey results indicate that, as the chaotic changes in U.S. tariff policies shock financial markets and reignite concerns about a global economic slowdown, the Bank of Japan remains an outlier globally in pushing for monetary policy tightening.
In the survey conducted from March 4 to 11, all but one of the 62 economists predicted that the interest rate would remain unchanged at the meeting on March 18-19; among a small group of economists (18 out of 61), some expected at least one rate hike of 25 basis points to 0.75% between April and June, similar to last month's survey.
About 70% of respondents (40 out of 57) predicted a rate increase to 0.75% in the third quarter, slightly up from over 65% in February.
In a small sample of 37 people predicting specific months for the rate hike, 70% (26 people) chose July, up from the previous 59%; another 14% (5 people) chose June, 3 chose April to May, and 1 person chose March, September, or October.
Takumi Tsunoda, a senior economist at the Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, stated, “The necessity for a rate hike has decreased, partly because the depreciation of the yen has stopped, and the pressure from rising import prices has eased. We expect the next rate hike by the Bank of Japan to occur in July, when the results of this fiscal year's wage negotiations will be confirmed by statistical data.”
The market expects Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points around September to October, with an anticipated probability of another rate hike afterward at about 25%, bringing the total cumulative increase to 31.4 basis points by December.
Previously, sources revealed that the inflation pressure from rising wages and continuously increasing food costs may prompt Bank of Japan policymakers to discuss the possibility of another rate hike as early as May.
Sources indicated that whether the Bank of Japan acts in May or later this year will depend on price prospects and the impact of Trump's policies on financial markets.
Many large Japanese companies met union demands for significant wage increases for the third consecutive year this Wednesday, providing more operational space for the Bank of Japan to further raise rates.
The survey showed that the median forecast for the year-end interest rate is 0.75%, while the median forecast for the end of March 2026 is 1.00%, both unchanged from February.
Daiwa Securities economist Kento Minami stated, “In times of market instability, the Bank of Japan has no reason to hastily adjust interest rates.”
In this month's foreign media survey, about 90% of economists (28 out of 31) stated that the tariffs announced by Trump so far would have a negative or slightly negative impact on the Japanese economy, which is roughly consistent with the 94% in the December survey.
Harumi Taguchi, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated, “In addition to the direct impact on exports, the strong uncertainty in the future also makes it difficult for companies in terms of production and investment plans. The risk of downward pressure on capital investment is increasing.”
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
