The muddier the road, the clearer the footprints left behind; the steeper the peak, the more wonderful the scenery! There is no success without reason in this world; all flowers are watered by sweat. Once you choose the path you want to take, walk it bravely, persist no matter how difficult it gets, and never give up no matter how far it is. Heaven rewards diligence; one unit of effort may not yield one unit of return, but nine units of effort will definitely yield one unit of return!

The trend is so obvious; whether it is an opportunity or a delusion completely depends on what trades you make. Unsurprisingly, yesterday's market was indeed a relative oscillation process. The U.S. February CPI data was significantly below expectations, but the swap market's bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year decreased from 73 basis points to about 67 basis points. Last night's data provided short-term benefits to the market, with both the stock market and cryptocurrency rebounding, although the extent was limited. The market once surged to around 84,500, then dipped to around 80,600, and fell back into a range of oscillation. As of now, the coin price is around 83,000.

In terms of operations, we suggested entering a short position around 83,000 yesterday, and we provided entry points for adding positions at 84,000. Since the position at 84,000 has been completed, we notified in real-time that profits could be taken below 81,000. Therefore, as of now, this short position has at least been reduced for profit. If the market rebounds above 84,000 again, I wonder if friends have entered short positions again and how their existing positions are doing. So, friends need to adjust their position allocations based on their own holdings. If there are any questions, feel free to reach out.

From a technical perspective, on the four-hour chart, excluding the situation of a pin bar, if a rebound can form at this position, it would break the double top pattern. However, if the rebound strength does not materialize, it becomes very necessary for the market to make another downward probe. The last K-line on the four-hour chart did not close well, showing a high-level gravestone doji, indicating the effectiveness of the resistance above in suppressing the market. On the MACD, as mentioned yesterday, in the current bullish cycle, the market has been unable to break through resistance. If the volume continues to converge, it will re-enter a bullish and bearish cycle, making the downward probing trend inevitable.

Additionally, on the daily chart, yesterday closed with a long upper shadow small bullish candle, following the previous day's long shadow bullish candle. Two consecutive bullish candles give a sense of a market rebound, but at least for now, I still believe this trend has a bit of a "trap" behavior, unless an entity K-line appears and firmly stands above 84,000. The daily MACD has seen a rebound, and the bearish volume has somewhat reduced. However, the daily cycle is larger, and combined with the four-hour pattern, my view is to first probe down to confirm support, complete the four-hour bearish cycle, and then rebound, allowing both the four-hour and daily charts to enter a bullish phase together. This would create a perfect large and small cyclical trend. If the four-hour bearish trend is strong, it is not ruled out that new lows could be broken, reaching the 72,000-74,000 area, which is also the bottom oscillation we have repeatedly emphasized recently, confirming the support process.

In terms of operations, since we have confirmed the trend above, we will proceed accordingly. Friends who still hold short positions from yesterday should maintain them, while those who do not can enter around 83,500, add positions at 84,500, and set a stop at 85,500. The target for today is to first look at the situation of breaking 80,000; if it goes down, then 78,000. For low longs, my thought is to see if there is a quick downward probe to form a pin bar; a position can be placed at 76,888. If the bearish strength is not strong, we can look for opportunities around 79,000. In preparation for both scenarios, if the market strongly breaks upward, we will operate based on the market conditions.

Ethereum made money again on shorts yesterday, which has basically become the norm recently. If it goes short, it really is weak. Today, above 1,900, it can continue, with a stop at 2,030. I don't know when Ethereum will have an independent market; once it appears, we will go long on Ethereum.

Then I think we can short most altcoins, but we need to control our positions and manage risks!

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for market discussions.】

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