Trading Moment: ETH/BTC Hits Near Five-Year Low, Bitcoin May Continue to Dominate the Market

1. Market Observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to its lowest level since mid-2020. Economist and cryptocurrency trader Alex Kruger suggested trading advice: "If you still hold ETH, now might be a good time to switch to high-beta altcoins. Even if the market declines, losses in both scenarios could be similar, but if the market rises, there is potential for significant excess returns, after which you can switch back to BTC." However, market indicators show that we are still in a "Bitcoin season," and crypto trader Hansolar has explicitly predicted that 2025 will be "the year of Bitcoin." The altcoin season index from CoinMarketCap is only 13/100, while Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to 62.15%, significantly higher than the 42% level when Ethereum reached its historical high of $4,800 in November 2021.

From trading data, there has been a significant increase in USDT wallet activity. Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer of Kronos Research, analyzed that traders typically accumulate USDT during market downturns to seek buying opportunities. The current surge in USDT activity is a bullish signal, indicating substantial buying power in the over-the-counter market. With the inflation rate in February dropping to 2.8%, below expectations, this may alleviate pressure on cryptocurrency prices. Traders should also pay attention to the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18, which may provide new trading directions for the market.

Notably, Qiao Wang, founder of Alliance DAO, pointed out that Ethereum has reached oversold levels similar to those after the 2021 Terra collapse, the 2018 deep bear market, and the 2016 DAO hack incident, suggesting potential trading opportunities at this price level. In contrast, the gaming asset market has performed remarkably well, with the investment return of CS2 skins surpassing that of the S&P 500 index and major crypto assets, becoming one of the best-performing trading varieties, with the total value of in-game items exceeding $4.3 billion and maintaining an upward trend.

2. Key Data (as of March 13, 13:00 HKT)

Bitcoin: $82,999.85 (Year-to-date -11.36%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $37.583 billion
Ethereum: $1,861.07 (Year-to-date -44.18%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $22.944 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 45 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.60 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 61.3%, ETH 8.5%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9242
Sector Performance: Meme sector up 4%, Layer 2 sector up 3.7%
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 89,371 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $256 million, including $102 million in BTC and $61.1789 million in ETH.