On March 12, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 3.0%. This sign of easing inflation had a widespread impact on global financial markets, especially in the cryptocurrency sector.
Market Reaction After CPI Data Release
After the CPI data was released, the financial markets showed significant reactions. U.S. stock index futures rebounded after a previous decline, with Nasdaq futures rising nearly 1%, and S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures increasing by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.
In the bond market, despite the inflation data being lower than expected, bond yields rebounded after a brief decline due to investor concerns over trade tensions and economic slowdown.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell more than 30 points shortly after the data release, then rebounded to 103.52.
Spot gold prices rose by $6, reaching $2,921.63 per ounce.
The cryptocurrency market also reacted quickly. Bitcoin (BTC) prices rebounded from previous declines, breaking through the $84,000 mark. Ethereum (ETH) prices also saw an increase. However, subsequent retaliatory tariff plans from U.S. trade partners put pressure on the market, erasing most of the gains made after the CPI announcement.
Impact of Easing Inflation on the Cryptocurrency Market
Lower-than-expected inflation data is generally seen as a signal of improving macroeconomic conditions, which may lead the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes or even consider rate cuts. This expectation is favorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors may view cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation, increasing their allocation to them.
However, concerns over escalating trade wars may offset the positive effects brought by easing inflation. The U.S. has implemented new tariffs on steel and aluminum, triggering global trade tensions that could negatively impact global economic growth. This uncertainty may lead to a shift in investor sentiment towards a more conservative approach, reducing investments in high-risk assets.
Views from Authoritative Media
- Reuters: Easing inflation may prompt the Fed to resume rate cuts in June 2025, with traders expecting three rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points this year.
- New York Post: Easing inflation provides the Fed with room to maintain current rates, but newly implemented tariffs may exacerbate trade tensions, affecting future economic prospects.
- Sina Finance: Inflation data shows a comprehensive cooling, but the Fed's job may become increasingly difficult as the inflation rate remains above the central bank's 2% target, which could hinder the Fed's ability to quickly cut rates in the face of signs of economic weakness.
Outlook for the Future
Despite the lower-than-expected inflation data, global trade tensions and policy uncertainty may still have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical dynamics, carefully formulating investment strategies.
Overall, easing inflation provides a short-term boost to the cryptocurrency market, but trade tensions may limit its upside potential. Investors need to remain vigilant in a complex and changing market environment, adjusting their portfolios in a timely manner to address potential risks.
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