Do not worry about having no friends on the road ahead; there are like-minded individuals on the investment journey. Good afternoon, everyone! I am the King of Coins from the Coin Victory Group. Thank you all for coming here to watch the articles and videos from the King. Every day, I bring you different news from the crypto world and precise market analysis.
**Click the link to watch the video: **https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1T2QHYkEah/
Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis (March 12, 2025)
1. Macroeconomic Market Sentiment and Key Event Impacts
U.S. CPI Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations The February CPI data to be released tonight is the market focus, with a month-on-month increase expected at 0.3% and core CPI at 0.3%. If the data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's vigilance against inflation, delaying the interest rate cut schedule and suppressing risk asset valuations in the short term; if the data is moderate, the probability of a rate cut in May may slightly increase, which would be favorable for a rebound in the crypto market. The current market is highly sensitive to interest rate cut expectations, and we need to be cautious of sharp fluctuations after the data is released.
U.S. Stock Market Correlation Recently, U.S. stocks have continued to decline (with significant drops in the Dow and Nasdaq), and there remains a correlation with the cryptocurrency market. A decrease in risk asset preference has led to capital outflows from BTC and ETH, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity reducing their holdings in BTC spot ETFs (selling 4,653 BTC in a single day), further intensifying market selling pressure. If U.S. stocks continue to decline, the crypto market may face additional downward pressure.
Trump's Tariff Policy Disturbances Trump's recent fluctuating statements on tariffs for Canadian aluminum and steel have increased policy uncertainty and market risk aversion. Risk assets (such as cryptocurrencies) are becoming more sensitive to geopolitical issues and trade frictions, and we need to pay attention to the pace of policy implementation and its potential inflationary effects in the short term.
2. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis and Strategy
Key Levels and Range Fluctuations
Resistance Levels: First resistance at $84,000 (previous high/neckline resistance), second resistance at $83,300 (short-term descending trend line pressure).
Support Levels: First support at $81,900 (20-day moving average), second support at $81,300 (120-day moving average and lower boundary of the range).
Probability of Range Breakout: The current price is fluctuating in the $81.9k-$83.3k range. If it stabilizes at the $81.9k support, the probability of breaking the descending trend line after a consolidation is high; if it falls below $81.3k, it may open up downward space to the $80k area.
Indicator Signal Verification
MACD and RSI: The weekly MACD shows short-term correction pressure, but the long-term bullish trend remains unchanged; the daily RSI is in a neutral range, showing no overbought or oversold signals.
Open Interest and Funding Rates: Contract open interest remains high, but the funding rates on mainstream exchanges have risen to the highest point since early 2023, indicating intense long-short battles and the need to be cautious of correction risks.
Trading Suggestions
Long Position: If the price stabilizes in the $81.3k-$81.9k range, a light long position can be established, targeting $83.3k-$84k.
Short Position: A light short position can be established if there is a rebound to the $84.7k-$86k range, targeting $83.3k-$81.9k, with a stop loss set above $86.5k.
3. Ethereum (ETH) Fundamentals and On-Chain Dynamics
On-Chain Data and Ecosystem Development
Activity: The number of transactions and active addresses on the ETH mainnet has not seen significant growth, with user traffic migrating to Layer 2 (such as Base and Arbitrum), but the mainnet's TVL and revenue still dominate.
Dencun Upgrade Effect: The introduction of "Blob space" reduces Layer 2 costs, attracting more ecosystem projects, which is beneficial for scalability in the long term.
Price Trends and Correlation
ETH has recently underperformed BTC, with market attention shifting to competitors like Solana. If BTC breaks above $84k, ETH may follow with a rebound, with the first target at $2,050.
Be cautious of the downward pressure on ETH from falling U.S. stocks and tightening macro liquidity, with short-term support at $1,850 and resistance at $1,980.
4. Market Trends and Strategy Summary
Short-Term Volatility Logic
Mainly Short on Rallies: Current market sentiment is cautious, with weak U.S. stocks, institutional reductions, and CPI uncertainty creating downward pressure. Short positions can be established on rebounds to resistance levels.
Opportunities for Oversold Rebounds: If the price quickly drops to $81.3k (BTC) or $1,800 (ETH), a technical rebound can be speculated, but strict stop losses are necessary.
Medium to Long-Term Structural Factors
Halving Cycle Support: BTC typically experiences price increases 5-8 months after halving, with the halving effect in Q4 2024 likely to manifest in Q2 2025.
Policy and Institutional Layout: If Trump is re-elected, it may promote crypto-friendly policies (such as Bitcoin reserve plans), combined with continuous inflows into spot ETFs, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook.
Risk Warning: After the release of the CPI data tonight, if volatility surges, it is advisable to reduce leverage to avoid holding positions. Pay attention to the progress of the ETH Layer 2 ecosystem and changes in the capital flow of BTC spot ETFs.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been mainly characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing major market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. This is mainly aimed at spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Proficient styles include mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance, short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
