"On a March morning, I finally lost my sleep."
Written by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Time turns, and it's another year of 312.
The crypto market always has a characteristic of short bull markets and long bear markets; bull markets are extremely noisy but brief, while bear markets decline quietly, drearily, and for a long time.
In this mismatch of long and short, most people are unwilling to take profits, unable to stop losses, and can't leave the table… Then their hearts turn to ashes, waiting for the next cycle to repeat.
If you happened to be caught in a narrative at the tail end of a bull market, you must be experiencing the dual torment of your position and your mood.
Humans are complex creatures; a few months ago, you could talk endlessly with anyone, but now you feel indifferent like an outsider—actively closing trading software, hoarding SOL like gold, and showing no interest in anything.
The bull market is gone, the wealth effect has vanished, and I can't get excited anymore.
But in fact, it is precisely at such times that you must not completely give up on yourself.
Emotions are the biggest enemy, but persistence is the best solution.
When the market is noisy, you might be busy chasing trends, fully invested, afraid of missing every opportunity; while in quiet times, it is precisely when you can calm down and focus on accumulation.
You must know that if you become overly indifferent in a bear market, actively insulating yourself will gradually numb your sensitivity, causing you to miss those small yet important opportunity signals.
By the time the next new narrative truly appears, you may find yourself unable to keep up with the rhythm or starting to eat others' leftovers again.
Just like when the bribery case involving the national football team was revealed last year, Li Fei, a key defender for the Shenzhen team at the time, revealed to the camera after being bribed to play fixed matches:
"As someone within the circle, we really have no confidence. Often, you are in a negative state of competition, whether psychologically or physiologically, you are in a very relaxed state, not always in a concentrated state to complete these technical tactics. Over time, when you want to tighten up again, you can't tighten up."
Isn't the crypto circle the same?
If you really do nothing, when the bull market comes again, you may find yourself like an outsider, standing outside watching others celebrate, unable to find your own place.
So, what should you do?
In fact, the answer is not complicated. Do complex things simply, and repeat simple things; this is the best survival rule in a bear market.
When the market is quiet, open your tools, look at trends, analyze data;
When projects are silent, return to the community, participate in discussions, and seek inspiration;
When emotions are low, record your thoughts, review your trades, and challenge your biases.
Everything accumulated in a bear market is to ensure you don't fall behind in a bull market.
So, don't let indifference consume your sensitivity, and don't let laziness become an obstacle between you and opportunities.
Let's talk about what you can do in a bear market—from market analysis to trend capturing, from community sentiment to personal accumulation. I hope it can help you find direction during this long low period, and I also hope it can become a reason for you to thank yourself in the future bull market.
You don't have to study anything, but you should make daily progress
Sometimes, you go to the mall not necessarily to buy something, but just to browse.
But if you don't go to the mall, you might be completely unaware of the seasonal new products.
The crypto market is somewhat similar; often, research is not about finding an immediate investment target, but about maintaining sensitivity to the market.
A bear market is like a quiet shopping season; although there are no long lines for hot purchases, those "new products" that are put on the shelves early often become the next round of bull market hits.
- Check the Trending page on Coingecko
One of the most common methods is to check the Coingecko Trending page once a day to see what sectors are popular in the market.
On its "Trending" page, you can see the tokens and sectors that have been searched the most recently.
If a project is repeatedly searched, there must be some events or trends that have drawn attention to it.
For example, recently, derivative tools have occupied the rankings, which may indicate that market funds and attention have returned to the DEX sector.
Checking it once a day is worth it, just like scrolling through Weibo or Xiaohongshu.
- Look at the DEX hot trends on GeckoTerminal
If you want to be more micro and see which coins are local hotspots on-chain, you can specifically look for data monitoring websites related to DEX.
Here, I will use GeckoTerminal as an example; it tracks over 170 blockchain networks and more than 1300 DEXs, providing you with real-time trading volume, liquidity, and price fluctuation data, and it comes with Chinese support.
Others like DEX Screener, GMGN, etc., can achieve similar effects, so you can check them daily according to your preferences.
What I often look at is the top 10 on-chain pools, which easily reveals some short-term hotspots.
For example, as of the time of writing, among the top 10 on-chain token pools, 7 out of 10 are on Base; combined with recent news about Coinbase's on-chain transformation and the new dog meme adopted by the owner of the original Dogecoin—"There may be new opportunities on the Base chain in the short term" is not a difficult conclusion to draw.
Of course, PVP is always competitive; this is not financial advice, but a way to observe the market and maintain sensitivity.
- Track more general daily data indicators
Just as people pay attention to weather forecasts when seasons change to decide whether to add clothes or change shoes, investors also need to use charts to judge the market's "seasonal changes." In a bear market, daily and weekly charts are the most reliable "weather forecasts."
For example, 200MA indicator (200-day moving average).
The 200 MA is the "climate line" of the crypto market; it represents the long-term trend of the market. If the price is running below the 200 MA, it usually means the market is in a bear market; once the price breaks above the 200 MA, it may signal the beginning of a bull market. In a bear market, observing whether the price is close to the 200 MA can help you find potential trend reversal points.
Another example is Order Block.
Order blocks are the "footprints" of large funds. They are often key support or resistance levels in the market because these areas are where institutions or whales buy or sell in large quantities. By observing these areas, you can judge potential market rebound or pullback points.
Other indicators worth paying attention to:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Helps you determine whether the market is overbought or oversold, especially suitable for finding short-term rebound opportunities in a bear market.
Volume changes: A sudden increase in volume often indicates a change in market sentiment, such as a token possibly attracting new capital inflows.
Market Structure: By analyzing the changes in highs and lows, you can determine whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways trend.
These indicators can be found on tradingview.com or in the features of some CEX software, so I won't elaborate further.
- Let yourself "overthink"
In addition to the daily checks mentioned above, browsing Twitter and Telegram channels is also a method, but simply scrolling can easily lead to noise or being misled by a single post; you may need to engage in associative thinking to think more.
Using the mindset of the last round of infrastructure projects as a metaphor:
If a certain infrastructure project (like zk Rollups) starts to gain attention, consider whether its application layer projects (like DeFi protocols on zk Rollups) might also benefit.
If a certain Layer 2 project attracts a large number of users due to a technical upgrade, then its bridging tools, wallets, and related DeFi protocols may also benefit.
When the liquid staking (LSD) sector of Ethereum begins to explode, many investors find that protocols related to LSD (like trading platforms for staking derivatives) also rise. This interconnected effect of the value chain is often an important method for capturing trends.
If you find it difficult to make these associations, then supplementing some basic knowledge of the crypto circle and sorting out various sectors will be more important.
Therefore, you can return to CMC or Coingecko to look at the top projects in different sectors, studying them one by one to form an understanding of project connections.
Talk more, find quality communities
Going it alone often leads to losing direction; those P small players are all about teamwork.
Whether you are a novice or a seasoned investor, integrating into a community can provide new perspectives for your research and decision-making, which is why there is a so-called "core circle."
In a bear market, projects need popularity and user engagement for marketing purposes; if you can join official groups, DC, or TG and show a positive attitude, the competition is relatively less than in a bull market.
Even if you are a loser, you should still act like a builder.
How to choose quality groups and communities?
Observe for a while; try to choose groups with active management, focusing on education and discussion, rather than places filled entirely with speculation and hype.
Because if it’s purely speculative, you might already be too late; when the community turns into a pure signal-calling group, how many stories of exiting liquidity do you have left?
Another suggestion for newcomers is not to be afraid to ask questions, especially about technology, project backgrounds, or market trends. After all, this is not face-to-face communication, so the pressure of social anxiety is much less; as long as you have interest and energy, you will always be remembered.
Keep a diary, even if it's poorly written
Keeping a diary is not only a way to record life but also a tool for reflection and growth. For traders, a trading diary is key to understanding their behavior patterns and identifying areas for improvement.
How to get started?
The simplest way is to spend 10 minutes after the daily progress to write down which projects you saw, what sectors they belong to, and why you are paying attention to them.
If you can't write it clearly, it means you haven't really understood the project; if you invested without understanding the project, you might make a profit, but in the end, you will likely lose it back.
It's not that understanding guarantees profit, but rather that improving your analytical skills through continuous summarization is key; if you can't articulate it clearly, it means you haven't analyzed it well.
A feasible starting point might be:
Record the following for each trade: entry point, exit point, decision basis, market environment, and final result.
Spend 10 minutes each day writing down market observations, sentiment, and cognitive biases. For example, "Today the market sentiment is somewhat pessimistic, but I noticed an increase in capital inflow for certain L2 projects."
It doesn't have to be long, but it should fully encompass your observations of the market.
The so-called KOLs with a research-oriented demeanor are built on such basic skills. The gap among everyone isn't that large; in a grassroots community, persistence, focus, and repeated practice in niche areas will make one stand out.
Moreover, it's 5052 now, and with so many free AIs available, you can ask about anything you don't understand at any time. The barriers to understanding financial terminology are gradually being broken down; there are no concepts or knowledge that can't be understood, only people who don't take action.
Conservative Participation, Letting Go of Prejudice
Although the market is bearish, if you discover a project based on the above analysis, the urge to make a few trades is still there.
In the current liquidity environment, I believe that conservative participation is a choice that won't go wrong.
For example, in a quiet market, it's easy for people to become complacent or make reckless trades out of boredom; at this time, taking profits and cutting losses becomes very important: set clear entry and exit points, use stop-loss orders, and trade only with funds you can afford to lose.
If you have no concept, do a math problem: should the risk of each trade not exceed 1-2% of the total account funds? Isn't that a very conservative strategy?
Additionally, it's easy to fall into negative or pessimistic thought patterns in a bear market; how can you convince yourself to give yourself a mental boost?
A practical suggestion is that even if the overall market is down, there are always some industries or projects performing well. Focus on these and consider investing in them. You can observe a project with some fundamentals over a week or half a month, taking profits when it's good or retreating in time.
Still, don't be an outsider, and don't hold onto fixed ideas in the rapidly changing crypto market.
For example, if you are bearish on the market in the long term, can you just take a low-leverage short position?
Clearly, you can't; when the market shows signs of potentially turning bullish, if you rigidly think all coins are garbage with no future and insist on shorting, you will ultimately incur losses.
Similarly, if you are overly optimistic about a certain project, make sure you haven't overlooked its flaws or potential risks.
Regularly challenge yourself; if you can't do it, let friends and colleagues challenge your thinking; be a bit more conservative and dialectical.
Finally, I hope everyone can get excited.
Stay active and consistent. Even in the quietest markets, there are always lessons to learn and opportunities to seek.
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