The chisel of dawn and dusk carves ravines in the rock layers of fate. Some lament the loss of sharp edges, while the wise glimpse new life in the cracks. The avalanche at twenty transforms into a stream at forty; what we call regret is merely a line on unsolidified plaster. When wrinkles creep into the corners of our eyes, we finally understand: it is not collagen that fights against time, but the calmness that dances with the passage of time!

312, it's the fifth anniversary. Five years, five years indeed.

Among so many anniversaries, 312 resonates the most deeply with people. Why? Because it is so rich, so typical, so extreme yet reasonable.

312 tells everyone to never put their life savings in extreme situations, because extreme situations can and will happen. The U.S. stock market can experience a hundred years' worth of circuit breakers in just two weeks, and Bitcoin can be halved twice in two days.

But 312 also tells everyone that the more violent the storm, the more brilliant the rainbow afterward.

So we remember 312 to remind everyone to always expect extreme situations and never to fall in extreme circumstances, because as long as you don't fall, what awaits you is a more brilliant rainbow and a better tomorrow.

Yesterday's market trend was roughly as predicted by the analysis, generally showing a fluctuating trend. After probing the bottom yesterday, it maintained a fluctuating rebound. In the evening, it first rebounded above 82000, then quickly fell near 79000 before starting to fluctuate and rebound again, reaching a high of around 83800, and is currently operating near 82000. In terms of operations, based on the actual market trend, the short position we suggested near 82000 was successfully entered during the first wave of the rebound, and the subsequent drop near 79000 also successfully reached the target position. Congratulations to those who followed for another profit. However, our suggestion for a short position near 78500 ultimately did not provide an entry point, which would have made it even more perfect. Additionally, as mentioned yesterday, we only made one trade for both long and short positions, so we did not choose to short again during the rebound. If any friends shorted again later, remember to adjust according to your own position.

Yesterday's article analyzed our thoughts on why the market is bearish. In summary, it is largely due to the ongoing trade war and expectations of economic recession, which have triggered investor panic in the market, leading to capital sell-offs and a reduction in market liquidity. A clear indicator is that the funds in various Bitcoin ETFs have been in a state of net outflow in recent days. Moreover, the inconsistent tariff statements from the former president have brought significant uncertainty to the market. For instance, yesterday he mentioned imposing an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum products from Canada, only for White House officials to later state that the tariffs would be canceled. The impact of such policy uncertainty is quite significant for short-term trading. Additionally, tonight there will be CPI data released, which is closely related to inflation and will influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, a key data point that will determine whether a rate cut cycle will begin, directly affecting the U.S. stock market and also impacting the cryptocurrency market, which is worth paying attention to!

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a bullish candle with a long lower shadow. Excluding the spike, it can actually be considered a second bottom formation in terms of shape. However, from the current market sentiment, the situation has not improved much, which suggests that there may still be repeated tests of support in the future. Currently, the short-term bearish trend remains, and the recent clear trend is that the price of cryptocurrencies has rebounded after reaching a high, mostly supported by positive data news. However, once the dust settles, the market continues to dip, accompanied by the outflow of "smart money," so considering all aspects, a bullish reversal may not be imminent. The downward trend persists, and if the middle track resistance is not effectively broken, the bottom of the larger cycle rebound will likely need further correction.

On the four-hour level, although the pattern shows a rebound after probing the bottom, it has not broken through the previous day's rebound high of 84000, indicating that the bullish performance is still insufficient. The short-term market is in a consolidation phase, and various indicators are beginning to stabilize. It is likely that we will see a major cycle adjustment trend soon. Meanwhile, the MACD has not strengthened after entering the bullish cycle, causing the current volume bars to shrink again, facing resistance above and struggling to break through. In the short term, we will treat it with a bearish fluctuation.

In terms of operations, since there will be CPI data released in the evening, and the recent daytime market has been mostly fluctuating, the real volatility will likely occur after the U.S. stock market opens. Therefore, we will maintain a short position near 83000, add to the position near 84000, with a stop loss at 84800 and a target of 80000-78000. In the future, based on the data release, if the market shows other fluctuations, we will adjust our operations in real-time.

As for Ethereum, there are no other thoughts; it is truly disappointing. While Bitcoin can rebound and recover its losses, Ethereum cannot. Therefore, even when Bitcoin is showing strength, we do not consider going long on Ethereum. We must wait for Ethereum to show a strong independent trend before considering a long position. Today, we maintain a short position near 1940, with a stop loss at 2030 and a target of 1800-1700.

Currently, there are no strong independent concepts or sectors emerging in altcoins, and they cannot attract market funds to a significant extent, so we need to observe further developments.

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on market conditions.】

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