Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.85 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.4%, which is $1.72 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $227.3 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.02%, of which USDT accounts for 62.98%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $85,772; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $2,134.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have increased, including: S with a 7-day decline of 28.94%, BERA with a 7-day decline of 25.49%, AI16Z with a 7-day decline of 41.04%, ADA with a 7-day increase of 26.88%, and BCH with a 7-day increase of 18.46%.
This week, there was a net outflow of $699.1 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.; a net outflow of $82.7 million from Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S.
On March 8, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 28 (the index is higher than last week), with this week's sentiment: 2 days of extreme fear and 5 days of fear.
Market Prediction: This week, the market has shown range-bound fluctuations, with value trends influenced by macro fundamentals, and stablecoins have seen slight growth. The outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is lower than last week, and the market remains shrouded in panic sentiment. Sentiment is better than last week but still in a state of fear.
A relatively positive piece of news: The first cryptocurrency summit was held at the White House, attended by industry leaders, discussing topics including the SEC regulatory framework, compliance insurance funds for stablecoin CEXs, etc. The rhetoric appears "official," indicating that the path to crypto compliance is long but holds promise. The short-term market will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations until a clear interest rate cut occurs, at which point liquidity will truly flow into the crypto space.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On March 2, according to F2pool data, based on the current Bitcoin mining difficulty, Bitcoin price of $85,580, and electricity cost of $0.06 per kWh, Bitcoin miners Antminer S19, Shenua M33S+, and Shenua M30S+ have reached breakeven prices;
On March 2, according to Bitrace monitoring, as of March 2, 2025, 17:00, USDT issuer Tether and USDC issuer Circle have at least frozen 5 Ethereum and Tron addresses related to the Bybit hack, successfully intercepting over 760,000 USDT and USDC;
On March 2, Trump posted on social media stating, "After years of suppression by the Biden administration, U.S. cryptocurrency reserves will elevate the status of this key industry. That’s why my digital asset executive order directs the presidential task force to advance a cryptocurrency strategic reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA. I will ensure that America becomes the world’s cryptocurrency capital. We are making America great again!";
On March 3, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong commented on social media regarding "Trump advancing a cryptocurrency reserve plan," stating that in terms of asset allocation for strategic reserves, Bitcoin may be the best choice. As the successor to gold, Bitcoin has the simplest and clearest narrative. If people want more variety, they can create a market-cap-weighted index of crypto assets to maintain fairness. But choosing only Bitcoin may be the simplest;
On March 4, U.S. President Trump stated that he would impose tariffs to sanction countries that engage in currency devaluation;
On March 4, according to an official announcement, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that its special task force on crypto assets will hold a series of roundtable discussions to discuss key areas of crypto asset regulation. This series of events is called "Spring Sprint: Towards Clarity in Crypto Regulation," with the first roundtable "How We Got Here and How to Get Out - Defining Securities" scheduled for March 21;
On March 5, the U.S. Senate passed the Congressional Review Act (CRA) proposed by Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Mike Carey with a vote of 70 to 27, to repeal the so-called "DeFi Broker Rule" — an attack by the Biden administration on the crypto community at the last minute, concerning the IRS "broker rule" involving DeFi;
On March 4, Aave DAO service provider Marc Zeller released a governance proposal seeking governance approval to implement the first part of updated Aavenomics, including updating AAVE token economics, redistributing protocol excess income, phasing out LEND tokens, and updating AAVE secondary liquidity protocol management;
On March 5, according to Cointelegraph, asset management company VanEck stated that the planned protocol upgrade for Solana is crucial for the long-term health of the network but may impact the income of validators. In March, Solana validators will vote on two blockchain protocol upgrade proposals (SIMD) aimed at ensuring stakers receive rewards and adjusting the inflation rate of SOL;
On March 6, according to ARKHAM monitoring, a wallet under Trump's crypto project WLFI just sent $25 million USDC to a single contract, which purchased $10 million ETH, $10 million WBTC, and $1.5 million MOVE;
On March 6, according to Arkham monitoring, Mt. Gox transferred 166.5 Bitcoins again just 6 minutes ago and conducted a transfer test to BitGo. Mt. Gox transferred 12,000 Bitcoins to an unknown new address, worth approximately $1.09 billion;
The first White House cryptocurrency summit was held on March 8 at 2:30 AM, with participants including executives from several crypto companies such as Coinbase, Chainlink, Exodus, and Strategy.
Macroeconomics
On March 4, Yuga Labs' X account stated, "The SEC has officially concluded its investigation of Yuga Labs, which lasted more than three years. This is a significant victory for the NFT industry and all creators driving ecological development. NFTs are not securities.";
On March 7, according to Cointelegraph, as of now, the SEC has dismissed or suspended lawsuits and investigations against 11 crypto companies/individuals, including: Binance (February 10), Coinbase (February 21), OpenSea (February 21), Robinhood (February 24), Uniswap (February 25), Gemini (February 26), Justin Sun (February 26), Consensys (February 27), Kraken (March 3), Yuga Labs (March 4), DRW (March 4);
On March 7, according to CME "FedWatch" data, there are 12 days remaining until the next FOMC meeting, with a 9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March and a 91% probability of maintaining the current rate. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by May is 4%, a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 45.3%, and maintaining the current rate is 50.7%;
On March 3, European stock markets generally rose, with Germany's DAX index soaring 3% in a single day, France's CAC40 index and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising over 1%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index rising 1%;
On March 4, Japan's 30-year government bond yield rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008.
ETF
According to statistics, from March 3 to March 7, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $699.1 million; as of March 7, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.375 billion, currently holding $17.02 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $49.792 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $100.76 billion.
The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $82.7 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
The Digital Asset Summit 2025 will be held from March 18 to March 20, 2025, in New York, USA;
Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from March 30 to April 5, 2025, in Bangkok, Thailand;
The 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held from April 6 to April 9, 2025, at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, Hall 5BCDE.
Project Progress
PancakeSwap announced it will shut down its simple staking product at 8:00 on March 10, 2025, and users need to withdraw funds before March 10, 2025;
The AI-driven Web3 interaction platform AlphaOS has partnered with the decentralized crypto trading protocol Orca to launch a Trading Campaign event lasting until March 11, during which users can trade Orca liquidity pools through AlphaOS to earn double AlphaOS points and have a chance to receive ORCA token airdrops. AlphaOS points will be converted into future airdrop rewards after the TGE in the first half of 2025;
The modular blockchain network Hemi will officially launch its mainnet on March 12, 2025, aiming to unify Bitcoin and Ethereum into a super network;
The BNB Chain Pascal hard fork will go live on the mainnet in mid-March, integrating key features from the Ethereum Pectra upgrade to enhance compatibility between BSC and Ethereum;
The decentralized lending platform Liquity will redeploy the fixed Liquity V2 in mid-March. The currently deployed Liquity V2 will become a legacy protocol, and the official recommendation is for existing V2 users to close their positions and shut down loans;
The airdrop claim deadline for the Pudgy Penguins token PENGU is March 15, 2025.
Important Events
The U.S. interest rate decision will be held at 2:30 AM Beijing time on March 20, 2025;
The pre-trial hearing related to the Bitcoin privacy wallet Samourai Wallet has been postponed from December 17 to March 12, 2025, a delay of 90 days, with the trial date set for November 3, 2025.
Token Unlocking
GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on March 9, worth approximately $4.51 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply;
Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock 11.85 million tokens on March 10, worth approximately $93.82 million, accounting for 1.18% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on March 15, worth approximately $50.37 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly live strategy sessions of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news briefings of "Blockchain Today," we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
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