Trading Moment: 312 Fifth Anniversary, CPI Approaches, Bitcoin's Short-Term Trend May Face a Key Battle

1. Market Observation

Keywords: CPI, ETH, BTC

It's another year of 312. Looking back five years, Bitcoin has risen from around $3,800 to today's $82,000, an increase of over 20 times. In this wave, some have made a fortune and chosen to leave, while only those who hold onto their beliefs remain steadfast.

The market has recently seen increased volatility, with Bitcoin rebounding to above $80,000 after touching $76,600 yesterday. Opinions on the future direction of the market vary among major institutions. 10X Research analyst Markus Thielen predicts in the latest trading report that Bitcoin may further decline to the $73,000 level and emphasizes that it is not yet the right time to "buy the dip." Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, points out that the recent price drop of Bitcoin is mainly influenced by the pressure from broader risk assets, rather than issues within the cryptocurrency itself. From a volatility adjustment perspective, Bitcoin's performance is highly correlated with the "seven major tech stocks plus Bitcoin" combination. He further notes that if Bitcoin breaks below the key support level of $76,500, it could quickly drop to $69,000. Despite short-term pressure, he maintains a target prediction of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. Regarding market rebounds, Kendrick believes it will mainly depend on two key factors: the overall recovery of risk assets and Bitcoin-specific positive news (such as sovereign purchases). He particularly emphasizes that clarity on tariff policies or rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will promote market recovery; if the probability of a rate cut at the May Federal Reserve meeting increases from the current 50% to 75%, it could trigger a rebound.

Meanwhile, Rohit Jain, managing director of CoinDCX Ventures, warns investors that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current interest rate level as expected, Bitcoin may test the $70,000 support level. Presto Research analyst Min Jung believes that the recent price rebound is more like a technical correction after a significant market decline, lacking substantial positive support. For traders, today's CPI release will be a significant event, as the entire market is focused on inflation trends and how the Federal Reserve will respond. In the current uncertain market environment, traders are advised to remain cautious, manage risks effectively, and pay attention to breakthroughs or support levels at key price positions.

Trading Moment: 312 Fifth Anniversary, CPI Approaches, Bitcoin's Short-Term Trend May Face a Key Battle

2. Key Data (as of March 12, 13:00 HKT)

Bitcoin: $81,719.72 (Year-to-date -12.57%), daily spot trading volume $46.4557 billion
Ethereum: $1,868.96 (Year-to-date -43.94%), daily spot trading volume $26.798 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 34 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 1.00 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 61.2%, ETH 8.6%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9643
Sector performance: AI sector up 3.44%, PayFi sector up 2.42%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 108,292 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $380 million, including $186 million in BTC and $72.1276 million in ETH