Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

In the blink of an eye, this round of bull and bear cycles is nearing its end. Even if you firmly believe the bull market isn't over, looking at the larger cycle, it's at most just the tail end of the bull. A bull market doesn't necessarily mean making big profits, and a bear market doesn't necessarily mean losing everything.

Fortune comes in waves; it all depends on what you choose and how you act. In each halving cycle, how do you catch the last bottom? What’s the trading logic for contracts and spot in the short to medium term? How do you catch the lows and highs in short-term fluctuations? Regarding these questions, the Master can discuss them slowly with everyone when he has time.

For short-term trading, you need to know how to go long, how to go short, and how to catch the bottom. This year's market has been as volatile as a roller coaster; it's the Year of the Snake in 2025, and the snake's tail is still long. Therefore, the Master’s main trading strategy recently has been to short at highs. Since this has been established as the core strategy, I focus on shorting at high points every day.

Sometimes, after a few days of sideways movement, the market can suddenly turn and drop sharply; in such cases, I directly increase my short position. After a big drop, I might catch a short-term bottom to bet on a rebound as a side dish. When the trend truly reverses and it’s time to look for long opportunities, I will adjust my strategy. Don’t always expect a sudden surge; there won’t be any free lunches.

In the current market, don’t chase after rising prices or panic sell. As long as you’re not chasing after a rise when the market has retraced more than 38% from a major drop, there’s generally a profit to be made. From the perspective of entry and exit points, shorting at highs is advantageous.

If you’re watching minute-level spikes and feeling good, it’s actually just a 30-40% drop, which isn’t significant. Additionally, there’s the February CPI data tonight, and there might be some volatility after 9:30. If the data is favorable, the probability of a rate cut in May will likely increase.

Moreover, I’ve seen many friends discussing whether this wave of increase is a rebound or a reversal, but what’s the use of that? I’d rather work with everyone to develop a reliable trading logic and thought process, rather than force my conclusions on you.

Back to Bitcoin, it broke 77k as soon as I opened my eyes this morning. At this point, you can guess how BTC spot ETF investors have chosen, right? Yes, the panic hasn’t dissipated yet. On the last trading day, BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK all reduced their holdings by several thousand BTC.

American investors sold a total of 4,653 BTC, and on Monday, they got hit hard right at the opening. It’s not just Bitcoin; U.S. stocks also fell sharply, leading everyone to wonder: is a recession coming?

In the last hour before the U.S. stock market closed, there was another sudden drop, closing lower. It seems the risk market isn’t easily convinced that a recession won’t happen; Trump’s inflation strategy is like a child playing house.

Last night, he just shouted about imposing a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel from Canada, and then Canada canceled a 25% electricity expense, leading him to withdraw the tariffs. Can’t these two big shots just make a normal phone call or have a subordinate confront each other before deciding?

They have to shout across the air, causing the risk market to suffer significant losses; who’s going to take the blame? It’s really frustrating. So, when Trump was in office, it’s best not to go all in, don’t hold positions too tightly, and take it easy.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 84000

Second Resistance Level: 83300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 81900

Second Support Level: 81300

Today's Suggestions:

Bitcoin is recovering its trend in the short term, currently consolidating around 82K. The first resistance is at the previous high point, which is also the neckline resistance area. If it breaks through and stabilizes, further increases can be expected.

If the range of 81.9~83.3K continues to receive support, the probability of breaking the downward trend line after consolidation is high. Therefore, if it breaks the trend line after consolidation, we can expect a retest of the first resistance.

If the first support can hold in the short term, we can maintain a rebound perspective. It is recommended to pay attention to the movement of the 20-day moving average during the day. If there is further decline, it will open up the downside space for the second support.

The area where the 120-day moving average coincides with the second support can be seen as a short-term entry opportunity. To continue the short-term upward trend, the likelihood of reaching the second support (81.3K) is less optimistic than stabilizing at 81.5~81.9K.

3.12 Master's Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light position in the range of 80300-81300, Target: 83300-84000

Short Entry Reference: Light position in the range of 84700-86000, Target: 83300-81900

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