On March 7, 2025, the Trump administration achieved a historic institutional breakthrough with the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act." By incorporating 200,000 BTC (accounting for 6% of the circulating supply) seized by the judiciary into a permanently non-saleable national reserve, the United States realized a supply-side reform of the Bitcoin market for the first time. This "zero-cost increase" mechanism cleverly avoids fiscal disputes, and its deeper value lies in: through institutional confirmation of rights, integrating Bitcoin into the national financial infrastructure, laying the foundation for the monetary sovereignty game in the digital age.
The following day, at the White House cryptocurrency summit, the Trump administration announced the acceleration of the legislative process for the "Stablecoin Accountability Act," marking the formal entry of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory system into a new phase of systematic reconstruction. A new chapter has begun.
Implementation of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act: "National-Level Lockup"
On March 7, 2025, U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policy welcomed a historic breakthrough. The Trump administration officially signed the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act," designating the 200,000 Bitcoins long accumulated by the judiciary as national strategic reserve assets and establishing a permanent non-sale mechanism. Although the act does not directly expand the government's Bitcoin purchasing scale, by freezing nearly 6% of the Bitcoin circulating supply, it can be considered a "national-level lockup," fundamentally reconstructing the market supply and demand pattern. In the medium to long term, the act strengthens Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute through institutional confirmation of rights, forming a policy synergy with Texas's pioneering "Bitcoin Tax Acceptance Act," marking a key transformation in the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory paradigm.
The act's innovative "zero-cost increase" mechanism allows for the continuous expansion of reserve size through compliant judicial procedures, avoiding political disputes over traditional fiscal expenditures while reserving operational space for subsequent policy adjustments. Notably, the "Bitcoin Tax Deduction Act" being simultaneously advanced by Texas demonstrates that state governments are competing for discourse power in the crypto economy through institutional innovation. This regulatory linkage between federal and state governments is rapidly constructing the world's first multi-level cryptocurrency asset regulatory system in the U.S., laying the groundwork for establishing a global crypto compliance center.
However, from the market's performance, the act was initially viewed as bearish because the U.S. government did not directly purchase Bitcoin, leading to a price spike followed by a retreat. Subsequently, long-term bullish perspectives began to emerge, triggering a significant rebound. The market's reaction priced Bitcoin at $91,000. In fact, when Trump announced that Bitcoin would be used as a national strategic reserve, the market had already fully responded to the positive news, and future responses from other countries will be necessary.
The implementation of the U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve policy may trigger a global chain reaction. If other major global economies follow suit in establishing cryptocurrency strategic reserves, based on the elasticity theory model of supply and demand, this structural change could provide Bitcoin with at least 2-3 orders of magnitude of value reassessment space, fundamentally reshaping the global cryptocurrency asset valuation system. (It should be noted that if small economies like El Salvador also adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the impact on its value range reassessment will be minimal unless the situation becomes densely sustained.)
Further reflection reveals that the profound impact of this act lies in the competition for financial discourse power behind the strategic reserve policy. Historical experience shows that the U.S. has successfully mastered the pricing dominance of global commodities by establishing strategic petroleum and gold reserve systems. The current trend of "American-style regulatory framework export" in the Bitcoin market is essentially an extension of the competition for monetary sovereignty in the digital age. For other countries, whether to establish a strategic reserve of crypto assets has transcended mere economic decision-making, evolving into a strategic choice for national financial security in the digital economy era, which must be taken seriously.
Stablecoin Legislation and Integration with the Banking System: From "Speculation-Driven" to "Technology Empowerment"
The policy implementation of the Bitcoin strategic reserve brought significant market volatility. However, the market was actually more eager for the White House cryptocurrency summit on March 8. Looking back, the summit's content was rather unremarkable, but the Trump administration clearly advanced the legislative timeline for the "Stablecoin Accountability Act" to be completed before the August congressional recess, bringing significant industry opportunities for the integration of stablecoin legislation with the banking system.
Trump believes that the key to ending the "bank exclusion" phenomenon in cryptocurrencies lies in constructing a federal-level regulatory framework, particularly focusing on standardizing reserve requirements for stablecoin issuance and institutional entry qualifications. This legislative process has been extended by four months from the Senate's initial "100-day legislative" plan. According to the legislative framework disclosed by the Treasury, the new act will establish a dual regulatory structure of "federal charter + state-level license," mandating issuers to maintain 100% dollar reserves and connect to a real-time auditing system. This design not only incorporates the regulatory practices of the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) but also achieves standardization through the Federal Reserve's federal review mechanism.
Licensed institutions are reshaping the power structure of the crypto market. The share of compliant trading platforms in spot trading volume surged from 42% in 2024 to 79% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a special report from CoinMetrics. The average weekly net inflow of $4.7 billion is 12 times that of unlicensed platforms, and this stark gap is particularly evident in Circle's USDC stablecoin, which boasts a 99.1% compliance rate in reserves supporting a daily trading volume of $500 billion, capturing 68% of the global crypto payment market. When the clearing system launched by HashKey Exchange in collaboration with Standard Chartered Bank and Deutsche Bank demonstrated an 80% efficiency improvement and a 60% cost reduction, the technological moat of licensed players became clear.
The technological revolution in the banking system has become a new engine for industry growth. Cross-border payment times have been compressed from the traditional blockchain's 10-60 minutes to under 3 seconds, and the settlement failure rate has dropped from 2.3% to 0.07%, thanks to the integration of the Federal Reserve's real-time settlement system. The Bank for International Settlements' report indicates that automated KYC systems have reduced the cost of single-client authentication from $120 to $48, directly driving UBS's compliant wallet to acquire 1.5 million new users in three months, 63% of whom are first-time crypto asset users. This leap in efficiency is reshaping the behavior patterns of market participants, with the proportion of long-tail users with daily trading volumes below $100 rising from 12% to 29%.
The macroeconomic weight of crypto assets has entered a phase of qualitative change. The International Monetary Fund's estimation model shows that for every 10% increase in crypto market value, the marginal contribution to U.S. GDP is 0.2 percentage points, a figure that holds strategic value against the backdrop of a $38 trillion fiscal deficit. BlackRock has observed a strong correlation between the 25% increase in Bitcoin volatility and changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, revealing that the crypto market has become a new conduit for U.S. dollar liquidity. Deutsche Bank's forecast further quantifies this trend, predicting that by 2027, crypto assets will handle 35% of global payment clearing volume and gain legal tender status in 17 major economies. When technology empowerment resonates with regulatory frameworks, the ultimate outcome of this transformation will be the digital reconstruction of the global financial order.
Reconstructing the Linkage Between Macroeconomics and the Crypto Market: Price Movements Still Depend on the U.S. Economy
Overall, the above situation appears favorable, but it does not mean that the crypto market will rise, as the correlation between the crypto market and U.S. stocks is deepening. The fiscal expansion policy of the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy game are reshaping the pricing logic of cryptocurrencies. The most direct perspective is that since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and U.S. stocks has become more pronounced. Bloomberg terminal data shows that the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index rose from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.78 in Q2 2025. Therefore, the rise and fall of the crypto market are closely related to U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy.
The Federal Reserve is caught in a policy deadlock between "controlling inflation" and "fighting recession." The current U.S. economy is facing the most typical stagflation dilemma since the 1970s, with the "high inflation + low growth" combination putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: if it continues to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, the interest costs of $35 trillion in existing debt will consume 17% of federal revenue (according to CBO estimates); if it shifts to cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy, it may repeat the vicious inflation cycle of 1980. Historically, in similar stagflation environments, the median three-month volatility of Bitcoin reached 86%.
The turbulence in the U.S. economy will lead to a contraction in the alertness of capital market liquidity. In a normal market environment, liquidity contraction would trigger arbitrage funds to enter and balance supply and demand. However, in times of chaotic policy expectations, this self-regulating mechanism may fail: traders, unable to predict the Federal Reserve's response function, tend to hold cash and wait rather than actively market make. When liquidity providers (such as market makers) collectively reduce their exposure, the market may fall into a "liquidity black hole"—price declines trigger further capital withdrawals, creating a vicious cycle.
Industry Outlook in the Global Context
The current policy shift in the U.S. is triggering a global regulatory paradigm change. The digital asset sovereign reserve model constructed by the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act," along with the banking integration path established by the "Stablecoin Accountability Act," provides a replicable regulatory framework sample for the world. As G20 countries gradually introduce cryptocurrency regulatory details, the global market is evolving from a "regulatory arbitrage" phase to an "institutional competition" phase.
In the new era where the digital economy intertwines with geopolitics, the reconstruction of cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks has transcended mere technical specifications, evolving into an important dimension of national financial competitiveness. The current policy practices in the U.S. indicate that whoever can first build a regulatory system that balances innovation inclusivity with risk prevention will occupy a strategic high ground in the global competition of the digital economy. For global economies at a critical stage of digital transformation, this regulatory paradigm shift is both a challenge and a historical opportunity to reshape the international financial order.
However, the revolutionary development of the U.S. guiding the crypto market also means that the current volatility of the crypto market is closely related to the U.S. economy. While observing the U.S. economy to gauge the crypto market, we must call for global participation in the construction of crypto market regulation to avoid the dominance of the U.S. over the crypto market.
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