The decline of Bitcoin from 110,000 is nearing its end; try not to short.

On Sunday night, Bitcoin fell below the support line of 78,258---81,500, and in the short term, it has chosen a downward direction within a large triangle pattern, with the technical trading range shifting downwards. The current trading range formed is 84,123---76,600. The first rebound after breaking the 78,258---81,500 support line was blocked at 84,123 (which is below the downward breakout point of 85,000). Unless there is significant positive news for the U.S. stock market, such as a decline in the U.S. stock market forcing the Federal Reserve to raise expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin will still face resistance at the 84,000 level in the short term. If the market continues to develop without a stop in the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin will likely experience a second dip within the 84,123---76,600 range, with the nearest support level being last night's low of 79,058; short-term support is at 76,600 (the lowest point from yesterday morning); if yesterday's lowest point of 76,600 is lost, the next support reference is 73,800 (the starting point of last October's new high).

This time, Bitcoin's correction (daily K-line cycle) has touched the long-term upward 288-day moving average. Looking back at the past two years, every time it touches the long-term upward moving average (with a 288 parameter), the mid-term adjustment has basically bottomed out, followed by a significant rebound or aggressive rise. Additionally, the CME Bitcoin futures have completely filled the gap from Trump's election victory, and the price has adjusted to just above the highest point of 73,777 from the first half of last year. In the short term, when CME opened yesterday morning, a gap of 85,500---84,000 was left above, which means that the gap range will soon be filled. Currently, it is a highly cost-effective long position. The spot market is estimated to have a 20% upside potential, and it is very likely to rebound to the 84,000--85,500 range in the short term. If Bitcoin drops again in the evening, go long with 2x leverage.

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