Insights into the US Stock and Cryptocurrency Markets

• US Stock Dynamics

  : Overnight, the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower without exception. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted significantly by 1.14%; the Nasdaq Composite Index also did not escape, dropping by 0.18%; the S&P 500 Index similarly showed a downward trend, with a decline of 0.76%. The performance of large tech stocks resembled a complex puzzle, with clear differentiation. Tesla and Broadcom acted like dark horses rising against the trend, both increasing by over 3%; Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta also showed resilience, with gains surpassing 1%; however, Apple fell like a bird with broken wings, with its stock price dropping nearly 3%, contrasting sharply with other tech stocks.

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook

  : According to detailed data provided by CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate level in the upcoming March is as high as 96.0%, resembling a towering mountain, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is a mere 4.0%. Extending the timeline to May, the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged still dominates at 58.3%; the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point cut has risen to 40.1%; while the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is minimal, at just 1.6%.

• Cryptocurrency Market Situation

  : The cryptocurrency market has recently fallen into a continuous downward spiral. Bitcoin's price has plummeted to its lowest level since last November, with its past glory seemingly evaporating in an instant. Despite former President Trump's emphatic statement supporting cryptocurrencies last week, attempting to inject a shot of confidence into the market, the escalating tensions from the tariff war have triggered deep concerns about the economic outlook, overwhelming this positive influence like a powerful undercurrent. In such a severe situation, risk assets like cryptocurrencies are like a lone boat in a storm, bearing unprecedented pressure.

In-Depth Analysis of Bitcoin's Trend

• Recent Market Review

  : Bitcoin's early morning performance resembled a thrilling roller coaster ride, showcasing dramatic fluctuations. Initially, the price fell like a free fall, touching the 76547 line, setting a new low record, and the market atmosphere plunged into extreme panic. However, just when everyone thought the decline would continue, Bitcoin emerged like a phoenix reborn from the ashes, quickly executing a V-shaped reversal, successfully breaking through the critical resistance level of 82000, capturing the market's attention. After the US stock market opened, Bitcoin's price faced another setback, encountering strong resistance when retracing to the 79000 line, but quickly rebounded again, currently stabilizing around 83000, indicating fierce competition between bulls and bears.

• Technical Analysis

  • Daily Perspective

    : From a macro perspective on the daily chart, Bitcoin has formed a solid bullish candlestick, resembling a beacon of light in the darkness, clearly indicating that short-term market sentiment has gradually warmed from extreme pessimism, with bullish forces beginning to emerge.

  • 4-Hour Chart Analysis

    : Delving into the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin displays a typical bullish consolidation pattern. The current market is in a fierce tug-of-war within a range, with both bulls and bears exchanging blows, showing poor performance overall. Bitcoin's price cleverly rebounded from the lower boundary to near the middle boundary, and based on short-term technical indicators and price patterns, there is a strong trend for further upward movement towards the upper boundary. The overall structure at this stage clearly leans towards a rebound trend. Looking ahead, it is highly likely to continue a deep consolidation in a fluctuating manner. The key resistance level above is around 85500, which acts as a solid barrier; if Bitcoin can successfully break through this point, it will undoubtedly signal a significant milestone for the bulls to achieve a major breakout.

Comprehensive Interpretation of Ethereum's Trend

• Recent Market Overview

  : Ethereum's morning performance was similarly tumultuous and gripping. The price cascaded down from a high of 1892 to a low of 1752, creating a tense market atmosphere. However, shortly after, Ethereum awakened like a beast from slumber, launching a powerful rebound, reaching a peak of 1961, bringing a glimmer of surprise to the market. Yet, the good times were short-lived; influenced by the severe fluctuations in the US stock market, Ethereum's price subsequently fell back to the 1836 line, only to stage another miraculous V-shaped reversal, with its complex and variable trend leaving investors bewildered.

• Technical Analysis

  • Multi-Cycle Comprehensive Assessment

    : From a comprehensive technical perspective, there is a noticeable expectation for a secondary rebound in Ethereum in the short term. However, when we shift our focus to the 4-hour to 12-hour levels for detailed observation, we find that the bearish trend across various time frames still hangs over the market like a Damocles sword, very prominent. Yesterday's low has already entered the oversold zone, and after a strong rebound during the day, the price has basically completed a technical repair, seemingly regaining some vitality.

  • Key Points for Future Trends

    : The upper area of Ethereum is like a treacherous land filled with thorns, showing significant short-term selling pressure, which means that in the current seemingly rising market, investors should not blindly chase highs, or they may easily fall into a dangerous situation. Combining an in-depth assessment of the overall structure, this round of upward movement may be a carefully orchestrated trap for bulls, which, to some extent, can temporarily delay the downward trend and give the bulls some breathing room. However, for Ethereum's future trend, the most critical core point is whether the bulls can gather enough strength to successfully reclaim the key resistance level in the 2220 - 2350 range. The gains or losses in this range may become a pivotal turning point determining Ethereum's future direction.

    If you are feeling lost—unable to understand the technology, unsure how to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, unclear about taking profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck in bottom fishing, unable to hold onto profits, missing out on market opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don't worry, I can help you establish the right trading mindset. A single profitable trade speaks louder than a thousand words; repeated failures are not as good as finding the right direction. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, future trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to progressing steadily with you in the market.

    

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