Original Title: "TON's Rise and Fall: A Folded Narrative of VC, Trading Platforms, and Traffic Frenzy - Starting from the Arrest of Yescoin's Founder"
Original Author: Su Yuchen

I. The "Fateful Cycle" of Yescoin and TON

Recently, the incident of Yescoin's founder being taken away by Uncle Hat has stirred up a lot of discussion on Twitter. I remember just a month ago, Zhang Chi was still updating his entrepreneurial reflections, while millions of users had played this Telegram click game last year.

Following my curiosity, I discovered that the disclosed information mentioned "missing the best opportunity to issue coins in May 2024," which reminded me of the craziness of the TON ecosystem six months ago.

At that time, VCs and KOLs were shouting that "TON will become the WeChat of Web3," and social media was flooded with myths of "clicking to get rich." Trading platforms scrambled to launch TON ecosystem projects, and retail investors frantically registered Telegram accounts to "grab airdrops"… Now, Yescoin's predicament serves as a mirror, reflecting the parabolic trajectory of the TON ecosystem from its peak to its decline…

II. The Rise: The "Trio" of VC, Trading Platforms, and TG

1. VC Hype: Precision Design from Narrative to Pump In 2024, Pantera Capital boldly endorsed TON, positioning it as the "super application entry point for Web3," igniting market sentiment. At that time, the TVL on the TON chain skyrocketed 20 times in two months to $600 million, with user growth outpacing Ethereum. VCs understood the logic that "traffic equals valuation": Telegram's billion-user pool is an untouchable "treasure trove" for any public chain.

2. Trading Platforms Seizing Opportunities: The "Harvesting Competition" in Traffic Lowlands Binance, OKX, and other trading platforms quickly sensed the opportunity and rushed to launch TON ecosystem projects. Mini-games like Notcoin and Catizen rapidly gained traction with "zero barriers + social fission," with Notcoin's user count surpassing 35 million and Catizen attracting 20 million users in two months, achieving a market cap of one billion upon launch. The influx of Telegram users into trading platforms resembled the "Pinduoduo-style fission" of the Web2 era, and what trading platforms needed was this "data growth" narrative for their financial reports.

3. Telegram's "Open Scheme": Payment and Business Closed Loop Telegram founder Durov has repeatedly publicly supported TON, even launching the embedded wallet TON Space, creating a closed loop of "communication + payment + gaming." Tether issued stablecoins on the TON chain, and the official launched a $5 million developer incentive program, each step pointing to the ambition of transforming Telegram's social empire into a crypto economy.

It was this collusion of the three that propelled the prosperity of the TON ecosystem.

Early participants who encountered projects like Notcoin and Dogs had single accounts worth $30. This wave also allowed a group of cross-border e-commerce operators to profit immensely, with some earning millions in a single night, which was quite shocking for me at the time: So this is what TON ecosystem airdrops are like?

After Notcoin and Dogs were launched on Binance, the grand performance finally reached its climax—Binance eventually listed TON, with the highest coin price soaring to $8, followed closely by the launches of several star projects like Catizen and Hmster.

However, as a deep participant in the TON ecosystem, I also realized a significant issue: the value of airdrops began to rapidly diminish after TON was listed on Binance, and it was at this moment that I started shorting TON ecosystem tokens. Looking back, this was an incredibly correct decision.

III. The Fall: Value Collapse After Traffic Exhaustion

1. User Fatigue: From "National Carnival" to "A Mess"

By the later stages of the TON ecosystem, project parties and trading platforms jointly promoted the "TON Ecosystem Month," with gameplay still revolving around signing in, recruiting, and consuming gas. Trading platforms gradually woke up: the so-called "billion-user pool" had a conversion rate of less than 1%, and most people came merely to take advantage of airdrops. As the coin price fell from a peak of $8 to below $3, even the most loyal community members began to sell off.

2. VC and Trading Platforms Exiting: Narrative Collapse and Capital Cashing Out

Early investors like Pantera quietly reduced their holdings, and the frequency of trading platforms launching TON ecosystem projects plummeted. Analysts who once proclaimed "TON will surpass WeChat" began to shift their focus to AI and other emerging narratives. Meanwhile, Telegram had already earned enough fees through ecosystem collaborations and achieved profitability in 2024, leaving retail investors lamenting at the parabolic K-line chart: Where is the promised Web3 WeChat?

The projects in the TON ecosystem expanded from early mini-games like Catizen and Hmster to an increasing number of mini-games and DeFi applications, but in reality, it was just a change of shell without substantial innovation.

As a witness, I watched the valuation of the TON ecosystem drop from $1 billion to $100 million and then to a few million dollars, with Binance no longer listing any TON ecosystem projects after Hmster. I saw it rise to host guests, and I saw it collapse.

Conclusion: Awakening from the Dream, Continuing to Chase the Wind

When the TON ecosystem started, I purchased 32 TON, hoping to fully experience the rise of Telegram and become a super app like Web3 WeChat, with the wallet balance on the TON network continuously appreciating like gold.

But now the dream is over. It has made us see the scythe of VCs, the traffic magic of trading platforms, and the collective madness of humanity under the temptation of getting rich quickly. The story of TON is not over; perhaps, as Durov said: "Telegram will always belong to the rebels."

But the next rebellion should not be a betrayal of self-rationality. Can you and I sense the wind direction earlier than VCs and press the button faster than trading platforms?

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