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Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Market (March 11, 2025)
1. Market Status and Core Contradictions
According to the Coin Victory Group's perspective, Bitcoin is currently in a deep correction phase, having retraced 36% from its high of $110,000 to around $73,800. The short-term technical pattern shows a descending wedge, and if it breaks through the upper channel, it may trigger a rebound. However, caution is needed due to the mid-term risk posed by the weekly MACD crossing below the zero line. Ethereum, on the other hand, has shown greater volatility due to market sentiment transmission and a decrease in correlation with Bitcoin (the coefficient dropped from 0.85 to 0.65), recently experiencing a one-day drop of 26% due to tariff policy impacts.
2. Key Driving Factors Analysis
Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Suppresses Market Confidence Despite the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points twice in December 2024 to 4.25%-4.5%, the January 2025 meeting removed references to "progress on inflation," indicating a cautious attitude towards the pace of rate cuts. This policy shift has weakened the attractiveness of risk assets, with Bitcoin, as a non-yielding asset, being the most affected, leading to a marginal tightening of market liquidity.
Tariff Policy Accelerates Recession Expectations The Trump administration's imposition of import tariffs has triggered global trade turmoil, directly increasing inflationary pressures and strengthening risk-averse sentiment. Bitcoin fell below $100,000 in early February due to this, while Ethereum plummeted due to market divergence in expectations for "digital reserve assets." It is important to note that tariffs act merely as a catalyst, amplifying market anxiety under the lagging effects of Federal Reserve policies.
Technical and Financial Resonance
Bitcoin Weekly Risk: The MACD has confirmed a death cross at a high level, indicating a mid-term adjustment trend. Key support levels are at $78,300 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level) and $76,400. If these levels are breached, it may trigger a wave of stop-loss selling.
Change in Open Interest: Ethereum's open interest in contracts has plummeted from $30 billion to $23.7 billion, indicating a rapid clearing of leveraged funds, and short-term selling pressure may have been partially released.
3. Multi-Dimensional Technical Signal Interpretation
Bitcoin Patterns and Key Levels
Descending Wedge Breakout Logic: Historical data shows that the probability of a rebound after breaking this pattern is high, but it requires volume support. The current first resistance level is $82,800, and the second resistance level is $80,600. After breaking through, the target is set at $85,000.
Volume-Price Divergence Warning: The $81,000-$83,000 range previously recorded a single-day transaction volume of $78 billion. If a rebound reaches this area, caution is needed regarding potential selling pressure from trapped positions.
Possibility of Independent Ethereum Market With the decrease in correlation with Bitcoin, Ethereum is more affected by the liquidity siphoning effect from altcoins. Recently, active users on the Base network surged by 360%, combined with progress in the Layer 2 ecosystem, which may support its oversold rebound, but it needs to break through the psychological level of $3,500 and hold above it.
4. Operational Strategies and Risk Warnings
Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Framework
Bullish Strategy: If the European session holds above $80,600, a light long position can be attempted, targeting $82,800; if the U.S. session maintains support at $78,300, it can be seen as a mid-term bottom-fishing signal.
Bearish Strategy: If it rebounds to the $82,800-$83,350 range, short positions can be taken in batches, targeting $80,600-$78,300, with stop-loss set above $84,000.
Ethereum Linkage and Divergence Opportunities
In the short term, it will follow Bitcoin's rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at $1,950 (Bollinger Band upper limit). If the breakout fails, it may retest $1,750.
On-Chain Data Monitoring Focus: Signals of whale addresses increasing holdings and a slowdown in staking outflows may indicate a potential phase bottom.
Macro Risk Warnings
Market Sentiment Indicator: The Fear and Greed Index has dropped sharply from 60 (Greed) to 44 (Fear), reflecting extreme retail sentiment, necessitating caution against liquidity crunches.
Policy Nodes: Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of non-farm payroll data may further adjust rate cut expectations, increasing volatility.
5. Conclusion and Trend Projection
The current market is undergoing a triple pressure test of "policy expectation correction + leverage clearing + technical breakdown." If Bitcoin can build a double bottom above $78,300, it may initiate a daily-level rebound; conversely, if it falls below this level, it will confirm a deep bear market at the monthly level, targeting $70,000-$72,000. Ethereum needs to focus on whether the ecological narrative can hedge against macro headwinds, maintaining a defensive position in the short term while waiting for market sentiment to recover.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recent market trends have been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes. Therefore, when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing significant market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. This is mainly aimed at spot and contract trading for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Our expertise lies in mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance levels for short-term swings, mid to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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