Trading Moment: The cryptocurrency market has seen a full-scale pullback, with Ethereum nearly halving since the beginning of the year.

Trading Moment: The Crypto Market Experiences a Full Retracement, Ethereum Nearly Halved Since the Beginning of the Year

1. Market Observation

Keywords: Coinbase, ETH, BTC

BTC fell below $77,000 this morning. According to the Greeks.live briefing, traders generally hold a bearish outlook, with most focusing on the $74,000-$76,000 area as a potential downside target, and viewing $87,000 as a resistance level. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts that Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000, which represents a 36% retracement from the historical high of $110,000, a normal adjustment in a bull market. Although Strategy did not increase its Bitcoin holdings last week, it has submitted a prospectus to issue $21 billion in preferred stock, potentially for purchasing Bitcoin.

The situation is more severe for Ethereum, which has dropped below $1,800 this morning. An address holding 65,000 ETH faces liquidation risk, and another whale has sold 25,800 ETH to hedge, incurring a loss of $31.75 million. Yuga Labs executives warned that if the market enters a bear phase, ETH could drop below $1,500, or even reach the $200-$400 range, consistent with a maximum drawdown of 90% seen in historical bear markets.

In traditional financial markets, U.S. stocks experienced a "Black Monday," with the Nasdaq plunging 4% and Tesla dropping 15%. Blockchain-related stocks generally fell, with Coinbase down 17.58% and MicroStrategy down 16.68%. In response, Arthur Hayes believes the next focus should be on the sharp decline in U.S. stocks and the bankruptcy risks of traditional financial institutions, after which major central banks may adopt easing policies to stimulate the economy. ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood believes the market is digesting the final stages of a recession, expecting a deflationary boom in the second half of the year. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that due to the still strong labor market, the inflation path is uneven, and with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration, and regulatory policies, the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast to 1.7% and raised its inflation expectations. Notably, futures traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut rates consecutively in June, July, and October.

In light of the current market conditions, Delphi Digital researcher Minty advises investors not to measure investments against historical highs but rather aim for a target of 50-70%. He stated that most altcoins may never return to their historical highs, and significant opportunities arise only a few times a year and are fleeting; overtrading and lack of patience are the main reasons for profit loss.

2. Key Data (As of March 11, 13:00 HKT)

Fear and Greed Index: 24 (Extreme Fear)
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9685
Average GAS: BTC 3 sat/vB, ETH 1.11 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 8.7%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH
Sector Performance: DeFi sector down 8.32%, Meme sector down 9.19%
Bitcoin: $80,007.13 (Year-to-date -14.6%), daily spot trading volume $58.486 billion
Ethereum: $1,865.44 (Year-to-date -44.05%), daily spot trading volume $38.414 billion
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 336,581 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $956 million, including $318 million in BTC and $252 million in ETH.