Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
On March 11, concerns over rising risks of a U.S. economic recession triggered severe market worries. By the close, the three major U.S. stock indices suffered significant declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 2.08%, closing down nearly 900 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 4%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 2.7%.
Large tech stocks plummeted, with Tesla crashing by 15.43%, marking its largest single-day drop in over four years, resulting in a loss of $130 billion in market value overnight, with its stock price halved from its historical peak.
At the same time, Bitcoin continued to decline, officially dropping below $80,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at $79,090, with a low of $76,560, representing a single-day drop of over 8%. Additionally, Ethereum briefly fell below $1,800, hitting a low of around $1,760. Several ETH whales had their positions liquidated, with an address holding 1,500 weETH (total debt of about 2.27 million DAI) being liquidated. After ETH's price fell below $1,800, its 643.78 weETH (valued at approximately $1.23 million) was seized.
Another whale on Maker also faced liquidation, involving 60,810 ETH (worth $10.9 million). Due to the Ethereum oracle price on Maker not being updated, this whale ultimately reduced its position by 2,882 ETH for 5.21 million DAI repayment before the 10 AM Maker oracle price update, slightly lowering the liquidation price to $1,781. Furthermore, a wallet suspected to belong to the Ethereum Foundation deposited 30,098 ETH (valued at $56.08 million) into Maker six hours ago to lower the liquidation price. Currently, this wallet holds 100,394 ETH (valued at $182 million), with a liquidation price of $1,127.06.
According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours reached $937 million, with long positions liquidated at $742 million and short positions at $194 million, affecting a total of 331,076 individuals. The largest single liquidation occurred in the BTCUSD trading pair on Bybit, valued at $5.2611 million.
Since reaching an all-time high on December 16, 2024, the cryptocurrency market has evaporated $1.3 trillion in market value, a decline of 33%, equivalent to an average daily loss of $15.5 billion over 84 consecutive days. This marks the largest three-month market value correction in cryptocurrency history, with the total crypto value now at its lowest level since November 6, 2024.
Is the bull market really over? How long will this round of decline last? In a market where panic sentiment is spreading, are there still hidden opportunities for buying the dip? How do institutions and traders view the future market? Let's take a closer look.
Views from Institutions and Traders
Arthur Hayes: Don't rush to bottom-fish; Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated in a post that the plan is as follows: Be patient, don’t rush. Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000, a 36% correction from the historical high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market. Then, we need a free-fall crash in U.S. stocks, followed by bankruptcies of major players in traditional finance. After that, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world will start to inject liquidity to save the market, and that’s when it’s time to go all in. Traders will try to bottom-fish; if you are risk-averse, you can wait until the major central banks start injecting liquidity before increasing your position. You may not hit the bottom precisely, but you won’t have to suffer through a long consolidation period and potential unrealized losses.
He also pointed out that BTC trading occurs 24/7, and anyone with internet access globally can trade; it cannot be printed infinitely, and the result of failure is bankruptcy or liquidation. No country's finances are directly tied to the rise in BTC prices. Stock trading hours are 8X5, and only specific individuals can trade; they cannot be printed infinitely, but if you have political connections, you may receive assistance after a failure. U.S. marginal tax revenue is directly linked to the stock market. Therefore, the stock market will ultimately receive assistance; it’s just a matter of whether your portfolio can survive until that assistance occurs. BTC is a true free market, while the stock market is not. Thus, in a fiat liquidity crisis, BTC will lead the stock market in both declines and rebounds.
Cathie Wood: The current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession
Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest, stated that the current market is digesting the final stage of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve more policy adjustment space than investors expect, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of this year. Cathie Wood believes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will become more flexible, and the market may be underestimating this potential economic rebound force.
A rolling recession refers to an economic phenomenon where different industries and sectors experience recessions in turn, while the overall economy and job market remain relatively stable.
YouHodler: The current consolidation period for Bitcoin may evolve into a mid-term bear market
Ruslan Lienkha, market director at YouHodler, pointed out that last year's consolidation phase for Bitcoin lasted several months (even up to half a year) before the next wave of increase. However, he believes the current market environment is more complex. Pessimism in the U.S. stock market is prevailing, and concerns about a potential economic recession in the U.S. are intensifying. Given these factors, the current consolidation period may evolve into a mid-term bear market.
But Lienkha noted that although Bitcoin may evolve into a safe-haven asset in the future, investors still view it as a high-risk asset, often reacting more dramatically to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets.
Yuga Vice President: If this is the beginning of a bear market, ETH could drop to $200-$400
0xQuit, Vice President of Blockchain Business at Yuga Labs, stated that seeing predictions of ETH's bottom around $1,500 seems reasonable given the current market conditions, but you need to ask yourself an important question—are we at the beginning or the end of a bear market?
If this is the end of the bear market, that’s great. BTC has hardly been affected by price drops, and its price remains stable at levels that were historical highs just a few months ago, which is very bullish for BTC.
However, if this is the beginning of a bear market, then be prepared to see ETH's price far below $1,500. It is quite absurd to think that an asset that has dropped 30% this week and over 50% in the past three months is only 20% away from its long-term final bottom. If the bear market has just begun, the target price for ETH could be $200-$400, which means an additional 80% drop from the current price, totaling a 90% decline, consistent with past bear markets.
0xQuit concluded: "Personally, I tend to be bullish at this position, but my position layout can also accept the market continuing to decline. If you cannot accept the worst-case scenario, consider selling some."
Bravos Research: The crypto market is experiencing the largest altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash
According to analysis from Bravos Research, the current cryptocurrency market is experiencing the largest altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash in May 2022. Approximately $10 billion in liquidations have occurred, far exceeding the situation after the FTX collapse. Data shows that Bitcoin's dominance continues to rise, indicating no significant altcoin season signals in the short term.
Anthony Pompliano (Pomp): Trump is deliberately crashing the market to force the Fed to cut rates
Crypto analyst Anthony Pompliano (Pomp) proposed a bold theory: the Trump administration may be intentionally creating chaos in the stock market to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates to avoid refinancing about $7 trillion in U.S. debt. Pomp pointed out that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has fallen from 4.8% in January to the current 4.21%, indicating that the strategy is moving in the right direction.
Trump previously stated on Fox News that no one can get rich with high interest rates because people cannot borrow money. The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current rates at the March meeting, but the possibility of a rate cut in May is approaching 50%.
Eugene: A small limit order to go long on SOL at $113 has been triggered
Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that a small limit order for SOL was triggered at $113—let's see if this marks some form of short-term bottom.
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