Recent Review of the Bitcoin Market
Recently, the Bitcoin market has experienced a significant decline, with market sentiment remaining low, trading volume noticeably increasing, and investor panic gradually spreading. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price continues to weaken under the pressure of multiple moving averages and is oscillating near the lower edge of a dense trading area, showing no signs of effective support or rebound. The main reasons for the market's substantial adjustment may include heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, strengthened expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, tight market liquidity, and an overall decline in risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market.
Candlestick Pattern Analysis
According to AiCoin data, the current Bitcoin price is oscillating around $79,000, and the previous sharp decline has caused short-term moving averages to diverge downwards, presenting a bearish arrangement.
Trend Pattern:
Since the peak around $95,000, the price has gradually broken through multiple support levels and has now entered a medium-term adjustment trend.
Recently, the candlesticks have consistently formed small bearish candles with long upper shadows and doji patterns, indicating a weakening of downward momentum, but selling pressure from above remains strong.
The price has tested the support around $76,000 multiple times without forming an effective rebound, indicating sufficient bearish strength.
Pattern Characteristics:
Currently forming a descending wedge or descending channel, although there is a possibility of a technical rebound, the overall bearish trend has not been broken.
From the volume distribution chart, it can be seen that the $85,000-$90,000 area is the main trading concentration zone, and without significant positive news, it is difficult to break through in the short term.
Capital Movement and Large Order Fund Flow Analysis
Volume Changes:
In recent days, trading volume has significantly increased, but prices continue to decline, indicating heavy selling pressure and a high level of panic selling.
The increase in volume accompanied by falling prices shows signs of a "long kill long" situation, with significant capital outflow in the short term.
Large Order Fund Movement:
From the OBV indicator, it shows a continuous decline, indicating that active selling pressure is consistently emerging in the market.
The MACD indicator shows that the green bars are expanding, and the DIF line and DEA line are showing a death cross downwards, with a clear net outflow of large order funds.
Comprehensive Analysis of Technical Indicators
MACD Indicator:
Currently, the DIF line and DEA line are continuously operating below the zero axis, forming a bearish arrangement.
The green bars are still expanding, and no significant bottom divergence has appeared, indicating weak short-term rebound momentum.
RSI Indicator:
The RSI is slowly oscillating and recovering in the 40-50 range, not yet entering the oversold zone, indicating that although the decline has been rapid, it has not reached an extreme panic bottom signal.
The short-term trend remains weak, and if the RSI falls below 30, it will form a technical oversold signal.
KDJ Indicator:
The KDJ has formed a golden cross at a low level, but has not yet formed an upward breakout trend, indicating that although there is an expectation of a short-term rebound, the strength is limited.
The J value is still oscillating at a low level, indicating insufficient short-term buying power, and the rebound strength may be limited.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
The Bollinger Bands are widening, and the price is running close to the lower band, indicating that the market is still in a rapid bottom-seeking phase, with weak short-term support.
If the price rebounds to the middle band (around $80,000), it may face significant selling pressure.
Today's Trend Prediction
Overall, in the short term, the Bitcoin price may continue to maintain low-level oscillation with slight rebounds, but the pressure from above is significant, making it difficult to form an effective breakthrough.
Predicted Range:
- Upper resistance level: $80,000
- Lower support level: $76,000
Operational Suggestions:
- Short-term traders: Can wait for a short-term technical rebound to around $80,000 to reduce positions at highs, to prevent the risk of a failed rebound.
- Medium to long-term investors: Consider gradually building positions near $76,000, but strictly set stop-losses to prevent further pullback risks after a breakdown.
- Risk control: Stop-loss level: $75,000
- Rebound target: $80,000-$82,000
Summary
Bitcoin is currently still in a bearish dominant phase, with heavy market selling pressure, and both technical and capital aspects have not shown reversal signals. In the context of high macroeconomic uncertainty, it is advisable to remain cautious in the short term and prioritize preventing downside risks. If a bottom structure can be formed and capital inflow is evident, gradual positioning can be considered.
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