Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Compiled | Dingdang (@XiaMiPP)
Looking back at the recent crypto market, it has been quite lively. Especially at the policy level in the United States, discussions around Bitcoin's crypto reserves have shifted from heated debate to "the shoe dropping" — On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to officially establish the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Additionally, on March 8, the White House Crypto Summit was held, which, although it did not pass any substantial proposals, opened a channel for dialogue between the government and the industry.
On the evening of March 8, Odaily Planet Daily, in collaboration with OKX, invited four crypto industry researchers and KOLs to discuss crypto asset reserves and their impact on the future market. The guests were: SoSoValue analyst Huii, KOL Amanda, Amber researcher Haoyu, and options trader Sober. First, let’s have the guests introduce themselves.
Amanda: Hello everyone, I am Amanda, working full-time in the cryptocurrency field. I will share my views from the perspective of a KOL and a "retail investor." Thank you to the organizers for the invitation, and I look forward to the discussion.
Sober: Hello everyone, I am Sober. I have been involved in options trading in traditional finance for ten years and entered the crypto market four years ago, focusing on options trading and holding a CFA certificate. Currently, I mainly trade Bitcoin options and U.S. stock options.
Huii: Hello everyone, I am Huii, a researcher at SoSoValue, coming from traditional finance and now dedicated to the crypto industry. SoSoValue is an AI-driven investment research platform that combines traditional finance with Web3, established a year and a half ago, attracting over 50 million users, with core users being Wall Street institutions and traditional investors from the U.S. and Japan. We are building an egalitarian investment research platform, similar to a free Bloomberg terminal. At the end of last year, we launched the SSI Protocol, allowing users to bundle multi-chain tokens into SSI tokens for index investment-style passive income.
Haoyu: Hello everyone, I am Haoyu. I previously worked in traditional finance real estate funds, then transitioned to Web3, and am now a researcher at Amber DAO. Amber DAO is a project incubated by Amber last year, focusing on discovering quality cryptocurrencies and AI projects. I am glad to participate in this event.
Odaily Planet Daily: On March 7, White House AI and Crypto Director David published an article stating that Trump signed an executive order to establish the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. The reserve will be sourced from Bitcoin seized by the government, with officials emphasizing that it will not increase the burden on taxpayers. Previously, Trump had claimed during his campaign to establish a national crypto reserve, which was interpreted as using funds to purchase Bitcoin, but the final plan deviated from expectations. What are your thoughts on this executive order?
Amanda: From an administrative perspective, Trump has fulfilled part of his campaign promises. He signed an executive order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, proposed the establishment of a crypto advisory committee, and pushed for regulatory easing, becoming one of the most supportive U.S. presidents of cryptocurrency in recent years. However, the promises have not been fully realized. He had previously stated that he would build the reserve by purchasing Bitcoin, but the actual plan is limited to Bitcoin seized by the judiciary, not using fiscal funds. The government will not enter the market with "real money," and the direct stimulus to the crypto market is limited, which is less effective than expected. However, I am somewhat optimistic: the order clearly states that the government will not sell Bitcoin. Although it is more conservative than the market's expectations for aggressive support, it still fulfills part of the promise.
Sober: Trump's consistent style makes this decision unsurprising. He promised to support Bitcoin during his campaign, which was seen as a strategy to attract young voters. Now, although there are actions, the results differ from expectations, aligning with the "buy the rumor, sell the news" logic. Analyzing from the perspective of options trading, I focus on implied volatility (IV). Before the summit, actual volatility and IV surged sharply, influenced by the high level of the U.S. stock market fear index (VIX). After the summit, the shoe dropped, and market sentiment turned low, digesting the previous fluctuations. If there are no major black swan events in the U.S. stock market (such as a drop in the Magnificent Seven or unsustainable high valuations for Nvidia), I am generally bullish on BTC's future, but cautious about other assets.
Haoyu: I analyze from a "hindsight" perspective. Trump's choice of a compromise plan was inevitable. During his campaign, he proposed a Bitcoin strategic reserve, with funding sourced from government special funds, which did not require congressional approval to reduce resistance. However, the opposition questioned: the special funds essentially still come from taxpayers, and bypassing Congress to purchase Bitcoin would spark controversy. In the current political climate, opposition from interest groups and the public makes it difficult to implement. Establishing reserves through asset seizures is the most realistic optimal solution, providing legal basis for federal policy and signaling to states and enterprises that the federal government holds an open attitude towards digital assets. Rather than focusing on Bitcoin's short-term volatility, it is better to pay attention to how states and enterprises respond to federal policies, as this may be a key variable in the future.
Huii: The market had overly high expectations previously, anticipating a rapid influx of incremental funds. However, under the U.S. legislative system, the only executive orders that Trump can quickly implement are limited, such as retaining seized assets without selling them, which is within his authority. To introduce incremental funds, there are two paths, both requiring congressional approval: one is to establish reserves with additional budgets, and the other is to set up a sovereign wealth fund to purchase Bitcoin. However, there are two practical constraints: cabinet appointments are not yet complete, and the budget proposal must be finalized by March 15, or there will be a government shutdown crisis. Incremental funds are unlikely to pass through Congress in the short term, and the second half of the year is a more reasonable time window, which is the core issue.
On the other hand, although congressional legislation is slow, the SEC has already taken action. At the end of March, the SEC will hold a roundtable meeting to clarify the crypto regulatory framework. Over the past two years, DeFi has been limited due to unclear regulations. Now, industry initiatives that do not require congressional approval are steadily advancing, such as dismissing lawsuits and accelerating ETF approvals. These developments are orderly, but there is a gap with the market's aggressive expectations.
Odaily Planet Daily: Many people have noticed a significant shift in Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency. In his previous term, he regarded cryptocurrencies as "enemies" and frequently made opposing statements. However, in the past two years, especially after winning the election, his attitude has turned sharply positive, not only launching his own Meme coin but also being seen as an important promoter of the "Trump family project." How do the guests view his attitude shift and recent actions? What considerations might he have?
Amanda: I analyze Trump's attitude shift from three perspectives: political interests, personal interests, and crisis diversion.
First, political interests. Since 2024, Trump's noticeable attitude shift is related to seeking support from crypto voters and capital. About 40% of crypto users are young people dissatisfied with the traditional financial system. By embracing cryptocurrency, Trump positions himself as an "anti-establishment pioneer," successfully attracting this voter base. During the election, the crypto industry became an important source of political funding, for example, Solana-related funds converted their connections with Trump's core circle into political capital. After being elected, his crypto policy has a hint of "you scratch my back, I scratch yours." Although some question whether he will fulfill his promises, the political cost of going against voter and capital expectations is too high, so he tends to propose compromise solutions.
Second, personal interests. The Trump family has long been deeply tied to cryptocurrency, and their Meme coin project and rumors of "pump and dump" have sparked controversy. This indicates that his push for crypto policy is not only about the country but also closely related to the appreciation of family wealth.
Third, crisis diversion. The U.S. is currently facing high inflation and a debt crisis, and traditional means such as issuing bonds and raising taxes are difficult to alleviate. By launching the crypto reserve plan, Trump aims to use the narrative of "America leading the future of crypto" to divert public attention and cover up the reality of fiscal mismanagement. Some joke that if Bitcoin rises to a sky-high price, the U.S. could use it to pay off trillions of dollars in debt. While this is a joke, it reflects the lack of new stimulus measures for the government amid economic recession, which may seek to harvest the public through financial innovation. If a certain country holds too much Bitcoin, the crypto market could become a tool for wealth transfer. Now, Bitcoin is highly correlated with U.S. stocks, and domestic "whales" may gradually lose pricing power.
In summary: Trump's motives align with his "businessman president" traits, reflecting a utilitarian strategy of "policy for votes, insider information for wealth, and bubbles to cover crises."
Sober: I interpret Trump's shift from two dimensions: policy considerations and economic interests.
Policy considerations. This is Trump's second term, and compared to his first, he resembles a more mature politician, but his businessman nature remains unchanged. Differentiating himself from the Biden administration is his consistent strategy. For example, last week he met with Vance and Zelensky, and their heated arguments highlighted his opposition to Biden's stance on crypto policy. Biden has a negative attitude towards crypto, while Trump locks in young voters through the image of "the crypto president." Now, his staff and senior opinion guidance capabilities have strengthened, as seen in recent positive coverage of his policies by NBC and BBC, indicating he has grown from a political "novice" to a "veteran."
Economic interests. Trump views crypto as a business expansion opportunity. He has become a "super crypto KOL," and his Meme coin TRUMP faced criticism from Dragonfly Capital executives when launched. Recently, he has also mentioned SOL, XRP, ADA, and other coins, seemingly "promoting" them. This extracts market liquidity in the short to medium term, causing retail investors to incur losses, benefiting only those who positioned themselves early. For the market, his personal economic interests may lead to backlash.
Advice: Holders can firmly believe in Bitcoin's long-term value; Traders can utilize the emotional trading driven by Trump, such as selling volatility when it is high in the options market and buying call options when calm, making thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in a single day is not difficult. The key is to make good use of resources rather than complain about the environment.
Haoyu: I lean towards the Holder perspective and agree with Amanda's analysis from the family and voter perspectives.
Family interests. The Trump family started with real estate, but the global real estate market is stagnant, and AI, blockchain, and new energy have become new favorites for capital. It is logical for the family to turn to crypto for breakthroughs; I personally transitioned from real estate to crypto for similar reasons.
Voter Perspective. In the tug-of-war with Biden, Trump needs to court emerging groups. Crypto users are mostly young people with low political participation, and his relatively positive attitude compared to Biden can attract this segment of voters. From the perspectives of family interests and political maneuvering, his shift is inevitable, as cryptocurrency provides him with a new platform.
I am skeptical about whether Trump's aggressive purchasing of Bitcoin will benefit the U.S. economy. Gold reserves once solidified the dollar's hegemony, but after the dollar decoupled from gold, the combination of U.S. debt and the dollar has stabilized its position. If he supports the stablecoin legislation, its economic significance is clear, but whether Bitcoin can become the "new digital gold" supporting the dollar remains in doubt. This may be why he has not been as aggressive as during his campaign, just my personal view.
Huii: The previous speakers have detailed perspectives such as that of voters; I will approach this from the U.S. fiscal dilemma to analyze the deeper motivations behind Trump's emphasis on crypto.
Fiscal Dilemma. Last week, Trump mentioned "balancing the budget" in his first State of the Union address of his new term, speaking for nearly two hours, setting a historical record. This points to the U.S. fiscal crisis: Over the past two years, high inflation has pushed U.S. debt interest rates above 5%, and the Biden administration has continued to issue debt, leaving a huge burden. If interest payments and debt issuance spiral out of control, by 2026, interest on the national debt will exceed the defense budget. This has reignited discussions about the "rise of the East and the decline of the West," as unlimited debt issuance is unsustainable.
Response Strategies. Trump's new cabinet has reached a consensus, and there are two solutions:
Boost asset values: This includes internet companies (AI) and crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.). Crypto assets are significant due to the dollar-dominated stablecoin ecosystem (mostly backed by U.S. debt), and rising prices would benefit the fiscal situation.
Increase tariffs to promote dollar depreciation: This may lead to a short-term economic recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which is directly related to fiscal spending and "national fortunes."
Stablecoins are particularly crucial, as their holding of U.S. debt creates a "never redeemable" creditor role. If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are raised, binding stablecoins to the U.S. debt ecosystem could potentially iterate a "U.S. crypto system," similar to the currency wars of the Bretton Woods system. This is Trump's long-term consideration.
- Market Volatility
Recent volatility, aside from reserves being below expectations, has deeper reasons related to the weakness of U.S. stocks. At the beginning of Trump's term, the market believed in the "American exceptionalism," but the consensus has now shifted to the government's tolerance of short-term economic weakness. Starting April 2, tariffs will be effectively implemented, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and risk assets, which affects the crypto market more than the gap in reserve expectations, leading to a sharp increase in volatility.
Odaily Planet Daily: Since Trump has signed the executive order for Bitcoin reserves, what changes might occur in the future in the U.S. and other countries?
Huii: I believe that Trump's signing of the executive order for Bitcoin reserves and his public endorsements last Sunday (such as mentioning ETH, ADA, etc.) are of great significance. This is not limited to Bitcoin but provides a form of "official certification" for cryptocurrencies. For a long time, assets like Bitcoin have been questioned as "scams" or "too volatile with no reserve value," especially at the national level. Now, the U.S. move legitimizes it, and the endorsement effect is significant.
For example, after the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs last year, the global market responded quickly, especially with Hong Kong rapidly launching related ETFs in April 2024, showcasing the U.S.'s leading role in asset definition. In this context, subsequent changes are worth looking forward to.
Expectations for Policy Shifts: Other regions may adjust their policies in response. Countries and regions that previously held an unfriendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies may gradually change their stance under the influence of the U.S. Although the specific timing is unknown, this is a predictable trend.
The impact of Bitcoin as a reserve asset:
Including Bitcoin in national reserves will enhance its asset security endorsement. Although ETFs have already brought in hundreds of billions of dollars, traditional financial institutions, especially "long-term holding" funds, still have limited participation due to strict compliance requirements.
If the U.S. government recognizes Bitcoin as a reserve asset, it will provide these institutions with compliance basis, promoting more funds to enter the crypto market through various channels. The scale of this incremental funding may far exceed the impact of the U.S. national reserves themselves, serving as a key to leverage global traditional asset allocation.
Of course, this process will take time, especially since large institutions typically require 6 to 12 months to adjust compliance processes, and we should remain patient.
Haoyu: I align with SoSoValue's perspective, believing that after Trump's signing of the executive order, the U.S. and the world will see optimistic changes.
Changes within the U.S.:
Legislative proposals have prompted state and local governments to consider purchasing Bitcoin as reserves. After the signing of the executive order, I expect more local governments to actively promote similar proposals, and even large enterprises to follow suit.
For instance, last year, Microsoft was almost entirely opposed to allocating Bitcoin, but this year we may see whether Amazon and Apple will allocate a small amount (e.g., less than 5%) of Bitcoin assets.
The U.S. political system emphasizes "bottom-up" approaches, where local and corporate demands often drive policy evolution rather than top-down enforcement.
International Changes:
Other countries may respond more proactively than the U.S. The two-party system in the U.S. somewhat limits rapid decision-making in emerging fields, while other countries have more flexible political systems that can quickly adjust policies.
For example, Hong Kong rapidly launched Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs at the end of 2023. In the future, China may quietly take measures, suddenly shifting when the timing is right.
Smaller countries may be more aggressive, directly emulating the U.S. in reserving Bitcoin.
Additionally, the SEC can respond quickly without congressional approval; if standards are relaxed this year, it may attract global crypto companies to list in the U.S. This would be beneficial for both coin prices and corporate development.
If this trend takes shape, it will inject vitality into crypto entrepreneurship outside of Europe and the U.S., promoting funding support and international cooperation. As an incubator and accelerator, we are looking forward to this, as it means more opportunities.
Sober: From the secondary market perspective, I want to first discuss the 200,000 Bitcoins in U.S. reserves, which account for about 1% of the circulating supply, a significant amount. Currently, 11 Bitcoin ETFs hold about 1.1 million BTC, accounting for 40% of active circulating supply (excluding cold wallets), shifting pricing power towards ETFs. If reserve policies lead to more traditional funds flowing in, this trend will be even more optimistic, avoiding past issues in the crypto market like "pump and dump."
Moreover, this could trigger a global "crypto reserve race." Although El Salvador was the first to reserve, it only holds about 6,000 coins, a limited scale. If the U.S. promotes this, small countries with severe currency depreciation may follow suit, significantly increasing the probability.
From a geopolitical and financial game perspective, the U.S. establishing Bitcoin as a reserve standard strengthens the dollar's dominance in international trade and the crypto market, similar to the "TSMC model" in the chip sector, creating intergenerational monopoly advantages.
Finally, with Bitcoin's market cap around $1.8 trillion (at $80,000), if it continues to rise, it could change the traditional asset allocation landscape. Currently, pension funds, 401(k)s, etc., typically allocate to U.S. debt and gold, but in the future, they may view Bitcoin as a regular option. Who would have thought over a decade ago that decentralized assets would become national strategic reserves?
In the long run, Bitcoin's Beta and Alpha potential is promising, but we must avoid letting short-term volatility interfere with our judgment.
Amanda: I analyze the impact of this executive order from both short-term and long-term dimensions.
In the short term, I am not very optimistic. The market originally expected the U.S. to use fiscal budgets to purchase coins, driving prices up, but the actual approach taken is neutral, lacking sufficient force. As SoSoValue mentioned, this is a gradual advancement rather than an aggressive move, and it may trigger selling sentiment in the short term. Yesterday, BTC fell about 3%, reflecting the market's disappointment with the scale and speed of reserves, which is understandable.
In the long term, this is a positive signal. Trump aims to change the rules, which may trigger a domino effect. Following El Salvador, the U.S. reserving Bitcoin may lead other countries to follow suit, accelerating the globalization process. I am relatively optimistic about this, but the actual impact depends on execution details and global reactions. Short-term sentiment may be low, but the long-term outlook is promising.
Odaily Planet Daily: Let's discuss the White House crypto summit that took place early this morning. Before the summit, the crypto community had high hopes for it, expecting significant policies to be introduced, but the meeting was disconnected just 20 minutes in, ultimately failing to produce substantial documents or proposals. According to reliable sources, Trump stated at the meeting that he would promote stablecoin legislation and hopes to complete it before Congress recesses in August this year. How do the guests view stablecoin legislation and its impact on the crypto industry and the U.S.?
Amanda: I analyze the potential impact of stablecoin legislation from three aspects:
Impact on stablecoin issuers. Currently, the market has always questioned the compliance and transparency of stablecoins. If new regulations can provide a clear compliance framework, it will help enhance the credibility of stablecoins and boost investor confidence. Possible policy requirements include:
Increasing reserve transparency to avoid opaque reserve controversies like that of USDT;
Enhancing information disclosure obligations to make it clearer for regulators and investors where funds are flowing;
Improving ecological transparency and risk resistance to attract traditional financial institutions and enterprises to enter the market and promote the development of segments like DeFi.
Accelerating the integration of banks and the crypto industry. If banks are allowed to issue compliant digital dollars, it will further deepen the integration of traditional finance and the crypto industry, enhancing the overall maturity of the sector. For example, banks could become the main issuers of stablecoins, promoting the compliant development of digital dollars; the traditional banking system would connect more closely with DeFi, facilitating richer financial innovations.
Impact on Dollar Hegemony. The official recognition of stablecoins may further consolidate the dollar's position as the global dominant currency and weaken the influence of competing currencies like China's digital yuan in international trade. Notably, the U.S. Treasury Secretary explicitly mentioned at the summit that the government would deeply consider the regulatory framework for stablecoins to maintain the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. Overall, the long-term impact of stablecoin legislation on the industry and the U.S. is positive, but the timeline for implementation remains uncertain.
Sober: I analyze stablecoin legislation from both favorable and unfavorable perspectives.
Favorable Aspects:
(1) Stablecoins are at the core of blockchain peer-to-peer currency transmission. As a long-term trader, my experience shows that the application scenarios for USDT and USDC are extremely broad. However, since they are essentially dollar-pegged assets, their prices do not rise, highlighting their irreplaceable market demand.
(2) Increased regulation of stablecoins enhances industry confidence. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 led to USDC briefly decoupling to $0.70, exposing systemic risks in some stablecoins; the TerraUSD (UST) crash triggered market distrust in algorithmic stablecoins. If regulatory compliance thresholds are raised, it will help avoid systemic risks from small stablecoins and increase market trust.
Unfavorable Aspects:
(1) The timeline for legislation is uncertain. For example, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has been delayed from an initially expected 100 days to before August, so stablecoin legislation may face similar delays. In the short term, this has limited impact on the market, and investors will need to be patient.
(2) The Trump family's vested interests. Stablecoin policies may be related to the Trump family's WLFI project. Trump's policies often accompany family "smart trading," which is worth the market's attention. Will this affect the direction of legislation? Will there be policy bias? These questions are worth observing in advance.
Haoyu: My focus is on how stablecoin legislation affects the integration of traditional finance and the crypto market.
Stablecoin legislation could become a bridge for traditional investment institutions to enter the crypto market. In the past, stablecoins like USDT/USDC faced many obstacles when interfacing with the traditional dollar system, such as difficulties in opening bank accounts and strict AML (anti-money laundering) reviews, leading to poor capital flow in the crypto industry. If legislation is enacted, it will bring a clear compliance framework, allowing banks and traditional financial institutions to interact more smoothly with stablecoins.
Additionally, I believe that the Federal Reserve's attitude has softened; Powell stated in February that banks should reduce excessive regulation of crypto businesses, which may support stablecoin legislation. In the long run, the clarification of stablecoin regulation will attract more traditional institutional funds into the crypto market.
Huii: As mentioned by previous speakers, stablecoins are extremely core infrastructure in the crypto market. I analyze their importance from two angles:
Stablecoins support global holdings of U.S. debt. Through stablecoins, the U.S. government can continuously attract global capital to hold U.S. debt, enhancing its financing capacity and maintaining economic stability. This further consolidates the dollar's dominant position in global asset pricing, closely related to the U.S.'s long-term financial strategy.
Stablecoin legislation may promote deep integration between traditional finance and the crypto industry. Currently, stablecoins like USDT/USDC still face issues in interfacing with the traditional financial system, such as account opening, capital flow, and AML regulation. If legislation is enacted, it will clarify how banks review the inflow and outflow of stablecoin funds, improving transaction efficiency and reducing capital flow barriers.
Long-term Competitive Impact
Stablecoin legislation reinforces dollar hegemony and may challenge the sovereign currencies of other countries. For example, will the competitiveness of China and Europe in the digital currency field be affected? Will it accelerate the advancement of their own digital currency systems?
Future challenges for decentralized stablecoins. If compliant stablecoins dominate the market in the future, the development space for decentralized stablecoins (like DAI) may be compressed; however, this may also prompt the crypto market to explore more competitive decentralized stablecoin mechanisms, even innovating in profit distribution.
In summary, I believe that while there is uncertainty regarding the timeline for stablecoin legislation, its impact is profound and worth continuous attention.
Odaily Planet Daily: For crypto investors, the "shoe" of Bitcoin reserves has already dropped, and some of the visions previously outlined by Trump have basically been realized. However, at this current juncture, many feel that the market is somewhat "boring" and lacks new narratives. So, where will the market head in the future? Can the guests share some tracks or major event timelines that investors should focus on?
Huii: Given my personal background leaning towards traditional finance, I may approach this from a macro perspective. I believe that the market will not be "boring" in the near future; rather, it will be quite lively. For crypto investors, I suggest focusing on three main dimensions for subsequent narratives and changes: macroeconomics, regulatory policies, and crypto ETFs.
First, on the macro level. Recently, U.S. stocks have performed poorly, and Bitcoin prices and other crypto assets have also been suppressed, primarily due to the Trump administration's clear implementation of tariff increases and high interest rate policies. In the short term, this may be detrimental to U.S. stocks and could even lead to economic weakness—though not to the point of recession, it is enough to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Investors should pay attention to several key data points:
Inflation data: Tariff increases will inevitably push up prices; for example, U.S. egg prices have recently soared to high levels, and inflation expectations have risen significantly since the beginning of the year. Whether Trump can offset inflation by lowering oil prices and the direction of CPI data is worth close attention.
Consumer data: As a core pillar of the U.S. economy, if consumption continues to decline, it may trigger a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Recently, the Fed has begun to mention the risk of stagflation (high inflation coexisting with economic weakness) but still states it will "hold steady." If the economy is under too much pressure, interest rate cuts may come sooner, marking a significant turning point on the macro level, with the market generally expecting signs to emerge in May or June.
Next is the regulatory aspect. I am particularly looking forward to the policy progress of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Currently, the SEC has only three commissioners, as personnel departures have not yet been filled. Trump has nominated a new chair, and once confirmed by the Senate, the SEC will return to four commissioners (three Republicans and one Democrat), making policy advancement smoother. The SEC has announced that it will launch an industry roundtable at the end of March, likely focusing on the theme of "spring sprint for crypto clarity." If the regulatory framework becomes clearer, sectors like PayFi (payment finance) and DeFi (decentralized finance) may see a new round of growth, with significant developments expected after April.
Finally, regarding crypto ETFs. Recently, institutions are submitting or processing various cryptocurrency ETF applications daily; for example, Solana (SOL)'s 19B-4 filing has been accepted. ETF approvals involve two types of documents: S-1 (similar to a prospectus) and 19B-4 (a document for regulating new asset types).
After the acceptance of 19B-4, an initial response is required within 45 days, and a final result must be provided within 240 days. Previous Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were approved on the last day, and this round of SOL, XRP, and other ETFs may accelerate.
The deadline for SOL's 19B-4 is October 10, meaning that a batch of ETFs will be approved and ready for listing before October this year.
Currently, Bitcoin ETFs hold 5.7% of the circulating supply, while Ethereum ETFs account for 3%. The future launch of ETFs for SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc., will further connect the traditional market with on-chain assets, creating a new narrative. A short-term observation point is SOL's 45-day deadline (March 29), although it may be delayed; in the long term, more progress is expected before October.
Haoyu: I will briefly discuss from a micro perspective. The current so-called "lack of trends" may refer to the absence of realizable hotspots in the short to medium term, but I believe this is not necessarily a bad thing. In this situation, entrepreneurs and investors are beginning to focus on "utility," which could trigger a reshuffling of the industry, shifting from blind speculation to genuinely creating value. This is a sign of industry progress. The future direction should focus on tracks that can bring real value to the crypto space.
I personally favor two areas:
AI + Crypto: AI may become the underlying technology for the widespread application of cryptocurrencies, and when investing, attention should be paid to projects with practical scenarios and value, rather than purely innovative gimmicks.
PayFi (Payment Finance): Combining the financial attributes of cryptocurrencies with Web2 usage scenarios, this area has more potential in the short to medium term. I am looking forward to new changes after April.
Sober: I believe that this brief narrative vacuum period is actually a good time for "sharpening the knife." From a macro perspective, since Trump took office, the U.S. stock market's fear index (VIX) has risen a level compared to before, increasing overall uncertainty.
Recent pullbacks in U.S. stocks (such as Magnificent 7, Nvidia, Tesla) provide opportunities for quality assets. Investors can utilize high volatility to generate cash flow through options or allocate assets during pullbacks (such as SPY, QQQ, or individual stocks).
From a crypto perspective, Bitcoin is similar to a "mini Nasdaq," showing strong correlation with U.S. stocks. Investors can take advantage of 24/7 trading and the staggered timing of pre- and post-market trading in U.S. stocks to engage in options grid trading and generate cash flow.
In this round, there has not been a widespread "altcoin season," and some old players have exited the market, but if one can make good use of volatility, there is no need to overly concern oneself with short-term market conditions.
My advice is: be patient and focus on generating cash flow.
Amanda: SoSoValue and Haoyu have covered the topic comprehensively. I would like to briefly add my perspective on the "realization of Trump's big vision": Trump's executive order is not the complete implementation of the Bitcoin reserve plan, but rather just one part of it.
The executive order is directly controlled by the government, with no separate budget for purchasing coins;
The bill proposed by senators requires congressional approval and plans to purchase 1 million BTC within five years, with the budget possibly coming from the valuation expansion of gold reserves, providing funding support to the Treasury.
I have always focused on the AI track, especially projects that can be implemented. For example, I once studied a case where a project sent raw materials into space using a spacecraft, manufactured high-quality pharmaceutical materials in a weightless environment, and then used reusable spacecraft to return to Earth, tracking production and ownership throughout the process using blockchain. This kind of innovation that combines practical scenarios is the direction I value.
Odaily Planet Daily: What are the guests' views on this year's crypto market? Can you predict the highest price for Bitcoin? Does Ethereum, as the "second in command," still have hope?
Amanda: Regarding Bitcoin's price, I am not optimistic in the short term, but I remain positive in the long term, though I am not responsible for predictions, only for my positions. If we estimate based on the pattern of each bull market peak rising about 4 times, $200,000 to $250,000 could be the peak for this round.
As for Ethereum, it has performed poorly this round, with the exchange rate continuously declining, recently affected by the theft of 500,000 ETH from Bybit and hackers dumping. However, it still has two core highlights:
An important option beyond Bitcoin reserves—institutional investors will still consider allocating ETH;
The only non-BTC asset with a spot ETF—institutions like BlackRock are gradually increasing their holdings.
Ethereum needs time to explode; if the buying point is low enough, I believe it is still an acceptable allocation.
Sober: I believe Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $200,000 this year. If national reserves follow suit or U.S. stocks are buoyed, we might even see a "bulldozer market." The issue with Ethereum is that Bitcoin's monopoly is strengthening, reflected in several aspects:
National reserves, MSTR's continuous purchases, and ETF increases make BTC a core consensus asset;
Ethereum's public chain status is weakened; while the Layer 2 ecosystem is thriving, it is difficult to form a "high-quality monopoly asset" like BTC.
My personal investment strategy prefers monopolistic targets, so I will not allocate to Ethereum spot but will cautiously use options to go long. In the long run (over 4 years), if Vitalik can promote ecological improvements, ETH still has the potential to rise, but short-term pressure remains significant.
Haoyu: My focus is on how traditional investors view and enter the crypto market.
Bitcoin could reach $100,000 to $150,000 this year; once it breaks through technical resistance, it will depend on macro-level positives.
Ethereum is more like a "leading stock," while Bitcoin is "digital gold."
If traditional investors want to enter the primary market, they may be more inclined towards the Ethereum ecosystem, but the premise is that there must be real value support, not just relying on market speculation.
Huii: I view the market trend in two phases.
In the first half of the year, due to pressure on U.S. stocks and the U.S. economy, as well as tightening global liquidity (such as the ECB pausing interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan possibly raising rates), risk assets (including Bitcoin and Ethereum) may face pressure, with increased volatility. Therefore, I advise investors to avoid leveraged operations.
In the second half of the year, if the regulatory environment becomes clearer (for example, clarifying which assets are legal and which are restricted), and with the rise of new narratives in DeFi, the crypto market may welcome independent Alpha (excess returns).
Our internal AI tool SOCKETIS predicts three scenarios for Bitcoin:
Optimistic scenario (30% probability): Bitcoin reaches $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year, provided that national strategic reserves are implemented and institutions continue to increase their holdings;
Neutral scenario: $100,000 to $150,000, the most probable market fluctuation range;
Support level: $70,000, if the macro environment deteriorates, this is the bottom range for BTC.
For Ethereum, our AI Bot's predictions are relatively pessimistic:
The previous high is decent, but the probability of reaching $5,000 to $6,000 is below 25%;
In the short term, it is constrained by competitive pressure (such as Solana and other public chains) and centralization issues;
In the long term, the vitality of the DeFi ecosystem may determine ETH's future trajectory.
Host: Today we discussed Bitcoin reserves, Trump policies, stablecoin legislation, and dollar hegemony, and predicted market trends and investment directions. Thank you to all the guests for participating in the Space event co-hosted by Odaily Planet Daily and OKX Chinese. In the future, we will regularly hold similar discussions, and we welcome everyone to follow the Odaily APP for more crypto market information.
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