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Bitcoin/Ethereum Market Analysis (March 10, 2025)

I. Macroeconomic Policies and Event-Driven Factors

Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Hike and Liquidity Spillover Effect On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan ended its 8-year negative interest rate policy, raising the benchmark rate to 0-0.1% and simultaneously canceling yield curve control (YCC) and halting the purchase of risk assets. Although this move was expected, the yen's exchange rate and Japanese bond yields fell instead of rising, indicating a lack of market confidence in Japan's long-term inflation. From the perspective of the crypto market, a weak yen may drive funds towards high-volatility assets through arbitrage trading (Carry Trade), with Bitcoin as "digital gold" potentially benefiting from safe-haven demand. However, the market has partially digested this event, and the short-term impact is limited.

Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations At the March 20 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with the dot plot showing a median expectation of a 75 basis point rate cut within the year, but there were significant internal disagreements on the number of rate cuts (10 members supported 3 cuts, 9 supported ≤2 cuts). Notably, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 (2.1%) and core PCE inflation forecast (2.6%), suggesting that economic resilience may delay the pace of rate cuts. The CPI, PPI, and inflation expectation data from Wednesday to Friday will be key variables:

CPI Data (March 12): If core CPI exceeds the expected 3.7% year-on-year, it may strengthen the expectation of "persistent high rates," putting pressure on risk assets.

PPI Data (March 14): The February core PPI year-on-year at 2% has exceeded expectations; if it heats up further, it will intensify market concerns about inflation stickiness.

1-Year Inflation Expectation (March 15): If the University of Michigan data exceeds 3.3%, it may weaken rate cut bets.

II. Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Short-Term Trend and Bull-Bear Battle Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $80,560, with a daily decline of over 6%, and a liquidation volume of $583 million in 24 hours. The technical analysis shows the following characteristics:

Divergence Signal: A bullish divergence has appeared on the daily level, but the price has failed to break through key resistance levels, indicating insufficient bullish momentum.

Support and Resistance: The first resistance level is $84,600 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level), and the second resistance level is $83,300 (20-day moving average); the first support level is $81,900 (previous low dense area), and the second support level is $80,600 (psychological level).

Downside Risk: If it falls below $73,300 (weekly neckline), it may trigger a technical bear market, targeting the range of $68,000-$49,000.

Main Player Behavior and Market Sentiment Main funds tend to reduce volume and oscillate before the Federal Reserve meeting, using spikes to clean up leveraged positions. Historical data shows that significant volatility often accompanies the meeting, such as Bitcoin experiencing a daily amplitude of 14% in March 2024. Current market sentiment is cautious, and any short-term rebound needs to observe whether $83,300 can effectively break through and stabilize.

III. Ethereum Key Support and Crash Risk

Battle for the Psychological Level of $2,000 Ethereum is currently priced at $2,050, repeatedly testing around the $2,000 mark in the short term. The technical analysis shows:

Support Logic: $2,000 is a key psychological level after breaking through in October 2023, resonating with the 50-week moving average ($1,980).

Breakdown Risk: If the daily closing price falls below $1,980, it may trigger stop-loss selling, targeting $1,600-$1,480 (connecting the 2023 lows).

On-Chain Data and Network Activity Ethereum network gas fees have recently dropped to a yearly low, reflecting a decrease in DApp activity. Coupled with the pressure from staking unlocks after the Shapella upgrade, short-term selling pressure may intensify. Attention should be paid to the impact of the core PPI data on the ETH/BTC exchange rate on March 15.

IV. Operational Strategies and Cycle Predictions

Short-Term Strategy (1-3 Days)

Bitcoin: Lightly short in the $83,300-$84,600 range, targeting $81,900-$80,600, with a stop loss set above $85,000.

Ethereum: If it rebounds and faces pressure near $2,100, consider entering a short position, targeting $1,950, with a stop loss at $2,150.

Medium-Term Layout (1-2 Weeks)

Bottom-Fishing Timing: If Bitcoin falls below $73,300, consider gradually accumulating spot positions (targeting a rebound of 12,000-17,000 points); if Ethereum falls below $1,600, consider allocating some positions.

Risk Warning: Pay attention to Powell's speech after the Federal Reserve meeting on March 19-20; if a "preventive rate cut" signal is released, it may trigger a rebound.

V. Cycle Logic and Market Controversies

Halving Cycle Ineffectiveness Theory Historically, Bitcoin has averaged over a 150% increase after halving, but the price had already surpassed $73,000 before the 2024 halving, with institutions preemptively positioning through ETFs (cumulative net inflow of $12.5 billion). This cycle may exhibit a "high before low" characteristic, with the probability of a post-halving bull market decreasing, necessitating caution against the risk of good news being fully priced in.

Policy Cycle and Regulatory Shift The Trump administration promoted crypto-friendly policies (such as establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve), but the weakened enforcement by the SEC and regulatory gaps by the CFTC may foster market manipulation. In the long term, the establishment of a regulatory framework (such as the UK's FCA A&D system) may enhance market transparency, but short-term volatility is unavoidable.

Conclusion: This week's market is primarily characterized by oscillating declines, with Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data dominating market sentiment. In terms of operations, shorting at highs is preferable to bottom-fishing, patiently waiting for medium to long-term opportunities at the bottom of a deep bear cycle (Bitcoin < $68,000, Ethereum < $1,500). The market has entered a "cognitive reconstruction" phase, and caution is needed against a narrative of a bull market that seeks to find a sword in the boat.

This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily oscillating, accompanied by intermittent spikes, so when making trades, please remember to control your take-profit and stop-loss levels. In the future, when facing major market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. Friends who wish to watch can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link. This is mainly aimed at spot, contracts, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT. Our expertise includes mobile locking strategies around high and low support and resistance, short-term wave highs and lows, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.

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