Starting from the incident of the Yescoin founder being taken away.
Author: Su Yuchen
1. The "Fateful Cycle" of Yescoin and TON
Recently, the incident of the Yescoin founder being taken away by Uncle Hat has stirred up a lot of discussion on Twitter. I remember just a month ago, Zhang Chi was still updating his entrepreneurial reflections, while millions of users played this Telegram click game last year.
Following my curiosity, I discovered that the disclosed information mentioned "missing the best opportunity to issue coins in May 2024," which inevitably reminded me of the craziness of the TON ecosystem six months ago.
At that time, VCs and KOLs were shouting that "TON will become the WeChat of Web3," and social media was flooded with myths of "clicking to get rich." Exchanges were scrambling to list TON ecosystem projects, and retail investors were frantically registering Telegram accounts to "grab airdrops"… Now, the predicament of Yescoin reflects the parabolic trajectory of the TON ecosystem from its peak to its decline…
2. The Rise: The "Trio" of VCs, Exchanges, and TG
1. VC Hype: The Precise Design from Narrative to Pump In 2024, Pantera Capital loudly endorsed TON, positioning it as the "entry point for Web3 super applications," igniting market sentiment. At that time, the TVL on the TON chain surged 20 times in two months to $600 million, with user growth outpacing Ethereum. VCs are well aware of the logic that "traffic equals valuation": the 1 billion user pool of Telegram is an "untouchable gold mine" for any public chain.
Exchanges Competing for Traffic: The "Harvesting Race" Binance, OKX, and other exchanges quickly sensed the opportunity and rushed to list TON ecosystem projects. Games like Notcoin and Catizen rapidly gained popularity due to "zero threshold + social fission," with Notcoin's user count surpassing 35 million and Catizen attracting 20 million users in two months, achieving a market cap of one billion upon launch. The influx of Telegram users into exchanges resembled the "Pinduoduo-style fission" of the Web2 era, and what exchanges needed was this "data growth" story for their financial reports.
Telegram's "Open Strategy": Payment and Business Closed Loop Telegram founder Durov has publicly supported TON multiple times, even launching the embedded wallet TON Space, creating a closed loop of "communication + payment + gaming." Tether issued stablecoins on the TON chain, and the official launched a $5 million developer incentive program, each step pointing to the ambition of transforming Telegram's social empire into a crypto economy.
It was this collusion of the three that propelled the prosperity of the TON ecosystem.
Early participants who encountered projects like Notcoin and Dogs could earn $30 per account. This wave also allowed a group of cross-border e-commerce operators to make a fortune from Telegram accounts, with some earning millions in a single night, which was quite shocking for me at that time: so this is what airdrops in the TON ecosystem look like?
After Binance listed Notcoin and Dogs, the grand performance finally reached its climax—Binance eventually listed TON, with the highest coin price soaring to $8, followed closely by the launches of star projects like Catizen and Hmster.
However, as a deep participant in the TON ecosystem, I also realized a significant issue: the value of airdrops began to rapidly shrink after TON was listed on Binance, and it was at this moment that I started shorting TON ecosystem tokens. Looking back, this was an incredibly correct decision.
3. The Decline: Value Collapse After Traffic Exhaustion
1. User Fatigue: From "National Carnival" to "A Mess"
By the later stages of the TON ecosystem, project parties and exchanges jointly promoted the "TON Ecosystem Month," with gameplay still revolving around signing in, recruiting, and consuming gas. Exchanges gradually woke up to the reality: the so-called "1 billion user pool" had a conversion rate of less than 1%, and most people were only there to take advantage of airdrops. As the coin price fell from a peak of $8 to less than $3, even the most loyal community members began to sell off.
- VCs and Exchanges Exiting: Narrative Collapse and Capital Cashing Out
Early investors like Pantera quietly reduced their holdings, and the frequency of exchanges listing TON-related projects plummeted. Analysts who once proclaimed "TON will surpass WeChat" began to shift their focus to AI and other emerging narratives. Meanwhile, Telegram had already earned enough fees through ecosystem cooperation and achieved profitability in 2024, leaving retail investors lamenting at the parabolic K-line chart: where is the promised Web3 WeChat?
The projects in the TON ecosystem expanded from early games like Catizen and Hmster to an increasing number of mini-games and DeFi applications, but in reality, it was just a change of shell without substantial innovation.
As a witness, I watched the valuation of the TON ecosystem drop from $1 billion to $100 million and then to a few million. After Hmster, Binance no longer listed any TON ecosystem projects. I watched as it hosted guests in its grand hall, only to see it collapse.
Conclusion: The Moment of Awakening, Continuing to Chase the Wind
When the TON ecosystem started, I purchased 32 TON, hoping to experience the rise of Telegram through these 32 TON, becoming a super app like Web3 WeChat, with the wallet balance on the TON network continuously appreciating like gold.
But now, I have awakened from this dream. It has made us see the scythe of VCs, the traffic magic of exchanges, and the collective madness of humanity under the temptation of sudden wealth. The story of TON is not over; perhaps, as Durov said, "Telegram will always belong to the rebels."
But the next rebellion should not be a betrayal of self-rationality. Can you and I sense the wind direction earlier than VCs and press the button faster than exchanges?
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