Market news may be false, breakthroughs may also be false, and declines may be false; only emotions are real. The process of speculation is the process of changing psychological extremes. The current emotional summary can be summed up in two words: anxiety! At this time, one must not be swept away by anxiety, as the turning point generally appears in this stage. The best state should be as stated in "Cai Gen Tan" — "If too idle, then other thoughts arise; if too busy, then true nature is lost." One cannot be too idle; being too idle can easily lead to a loss of sensitivity to making money. It is still necessary to pay attention to the market but not to over-focus. One also cannot be too busy; being too busy can lead to physical and mental exhaustion and excessive anxiety, losing true nature. Especially if you are anxious to the point of insomnia, then it is advisable to reduce your positions moderately. The best state is as follows: half a day of leisure in this fleeting life, drinking tea by the lakeside, waiting for a beautiful future, and then anxiety becomes unnecessary!
Just yesterday, we analyzed that the market was brewing a major trend amidst calmness, and we did not expect it to be realized so quickly. After a day of no fluctuations on Saturday, the market began to decline at six o'clock last night, reaching a low point near 80,000 this morning. Currently, after a significant drop, it is in a small rebound phase. It can be seen that yesterday's analysis of the market was bearish, with expectations of further declines. The plan was to position around 87,000, but in reality, it did not provide the perfect entry point. Therefore, we also mentioned that aggressive shorting needs to be done during the day. After the evening market broke down from the triangular fluctuation range, we entered short positions in line with the trend, successfully reaching the target near 82,000.
From the perspective of market sentiment, last Friday, influenced by non-farm payroll data, Bitcoin once surged to 91,200. However, after the hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the price began to face pressure and fell back. Even with President Trump's signing of the strategic reserve executive order and the cryptocurrency meeting held at the White House, the actual results were far below the market's expectations for the strategic reserve. However, under the long-term sentiment that is generally favorable, it was still unable to boost the market. Therefore, looking at this week, the market is likely to lean towards bearish first, testing the support below, and then a subsequent upward process, starting the week with a bearish approach!
On the technical front, the large-scale weekly chart shows three consecutive bearish candles, and last week closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle. The bearish forces are in absolute control, firmly suppressing the price at low levels, with around 87,000 becoming an important resistance level within the cycle. From the daily structure, there is a significant bearish pullback, and the candlestick has formed a series of bearish patterns. After breaking the triangular range, it has entered a downward trend channel, with moving average indicators showing a death cross. There are signs of a continuation forming a one-sided trend. It is necessary to pay close attention to the current strength of the intraday oversold rebound. If the rebound strength cannot break through the short-term resistance, then the continuation of bearish forces may indicate a further need for decline.
On the hourly level, the price has repeatedly faced resistance in the 84,000 area during short-term rebounds, indicating that bullish sentiment is weak, and there is a possibility of a return to lower support. The rebound is also slow, with large bearish candles accompanied by small bullish candles. Therefore, in terms of operations, it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise; the focus should still be on shorting during rebounds in the short term.
In terms of operations, enter short near 83,200, add positions at 84,200, with a stop loss at 85,000, targeting a drop to 80,000-78,000 for continued bearishness. If the market rebounds strongly, then based on the intraday situation, mid-term layout operations can be conducted.
Ethereum ultimately fell, and there were opportunities to enter short positions as mentioned in previous days, so profits could be successfully earned on Ethereum. Moving forward, the focus remains on shorting, entering short near 2,100!
The altcoin market is in chaos, and there is a lot of criticism towards altcoin market makers. Additionally, with various junk MEME coins rampant, most people have completely lost confidence in this market, and liquidity has decreased alarmingly. Perhaps it will take the emergence of a new explosive hotspot to save it.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on market conditions.】
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