I. Fundamental Analysis

Conveying the way of trading, enjoying a wise life. Whale Movements: From the trends of the top 100 on-chain whales, the market is showing subtle changes. Among the many whales, only the 19th has reduced its holdings, decreasing from 43,841 to 42,522 coins. The 18th whale, on the other hand, increased its holdings by 2,000 bitcoins, while most other whales added between 200 to 400 coins. Overall, in the past two days, whales have collectively increased their holdings by 1,728 bitcoins. This indicates that although the price of bitcoin is in a downward trend, whales have begun to slowly accumulate, but there has not yet been a significant increase in holdings. This phenomenon may suggest that whales are gradually confirming the market bottom, cautiously positioning themselves, and waiting for a more suitable time to increase their investments.

CPI Data: The U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate data will be released in two days. Looking back at the data released in December, the relationship between the actual value and the expected value has a significant impact on the market. If the actual CPI data equals the expected value, it will be favorable for the market; if it exceeds the expected value, it will be bearish.

Currently, the forecast for this data is 2.9%. If the actual value is less than 2.9%, it will undoubtedly be positive for the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, in the next two days, the bitcoin market is likely to experience fluctuations due to the release of the CPI data, and this potential market opportunity needs to be closely monitored.

Monetary Policy: On the 20th of this month, the Federal Reserve will release data related to monetary policy. The value released in January was 4.5, with the expected value also being 4.5, and the same situation occurred in December. Currently, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in March remains at 4.5.

Based on the trends of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy over the past two months and the statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, the likelihood of a rate cut in March is very low. Moreover, throughout the first half of the year, the possibility of a rate cut is minimal.

This means that the cryptocurrency market may experience a low point in the first half of the year, while in the second half, as the economic situation changes, the Federal Reserve may begin to adjust its monetary policy. It is essential to closely monitor the dynamics of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.

II. Technical Analysis Interpretation

Bitcoin: From the technical weekly chart perspective, bitcoin formed a long bearish candle last week. Previously, bitcoin rebounded to $94,000 and briefly stood above $92,000, at which point the market considered this a good Pinbar signal, indicating a possible upward trend.

However, reality did not meet expectations, as bitcoin's price significantly dropped last week, with the long bearish candle nearly touching the bottom area of the previous week's long lower shadow. From a pattern perspective, these two K-lines can be viewed as one K-line, indicating that on the weekly level, bitcoin is still in a breakdown trend, with current bearish momentum strong.

Currently, bitcoin's important price support levels are at $80,000 and $75,000. Among them, $75,000 is where the 50-week moving average is located, and it is also the lower boundary of the channel, while the green line representing the $78,000 level serves as a secondary support line. In the $75,000 - $80,000 range, bitcoin may find a bottom and could potentially rebound in conjunction with the CPI data release on March 12. However, it is important to note that this is merely a rebound.

Historically, since bitcoin broke through the 50-week moving average in 2023, there has not been a significant breakdown. Previously, there were two pullbacks near $25,000 and $60,000. If it tests the 50-week moving average again, it will be the third time. As the saying goes, "once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action," whether bitcoin will break below $75,000 this time is a key point of interest. If it breaks down, bitcoin's price may decline further.

From a channel analysis perspective, bitcoin's recent performance is not optimistic. Yesterday, bitcoin's price fell by 7%, breaking below $82,000 and also falling below the lower boundary of the channel. Next, bitcoin's price will test $78,000. If $78,000 is also broken, according to Nine Brother's view, bitcoin's price may drop to the $65,000 - $66,000 range. It is crucial to closely monitor the support effectiveness in the $78,000 - $75,000 range; if it cannot hold, consider buying near $66,000, as this position is likely to form a temporary bottom, followed by a significant upward rebound.

Additionally, the 200-day moving average was previously broken in the last market cycle. After the first breakdown, there were repeated breakdowns. Currently, bitcoin's price has effectively broken the 200-day moving average for the first time, and a rebound followed by another breakdown may occur. If the breakdown is severe, the price may further decline to lower temporary low areas.

Ethereum: Ethereum's price has broken $2,000. On the weekly chart, Ethereum fell by 21% last week and has already broken below the upward trend line. Once the upward trend line is broken, Ethereum is likely to test $1,500 next. From the analysis of Ethereum's previous bullish and current bearish channels, there were two channels during the bullish phase, and it is expected that two channels will also form during this bearish phase, with $1,500 potentially being a buying point for Ethereum. However, Ethereum's performance is closely related to bitcoin; if bitcoin breaks below the critical level of $75,000 - $78,000, Ethereum may plummet further.

This week or this month, there are many opportunities in the cryptocurrency market. Everyone should patiently wait for the right investment timing.

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