If you survive, you have no choice but to succeed.

Written by: degenspartan, eGirl Capital

Translated by: TechFlowGPT

Charles D Ellis (a senior investment expert still alive) categorizes modern (traditional finance) investing as a "loser's game" (I agree with this view).

There are two types of games:

• Winner's game: Victory is determined by exceptional skills that exceed expectations.

• Loser's game: Victory is determined solely by making fewer mistakes than other players.

In the early days, cryptocurrency was a winner's game—participating and winning required above-average technical knowledge.

Today, I believe cryptocurrency has largely evolved into a loser's game—just surviving is enough to win.

(This is not a binary turning point, but rather a change that has occurred since 2020 as the participation of professional players has gradually increased.)

But note: whether in cryptocurrency, traditional financial markets, or most things in life, there will always be winners and losers.

Take the meme coin craze (a manifestation of speculation in this cycle) as an example. To win, you might need some technical knowledge, understand smart contracts, monitor liquidity pools, and perhaps have a lovely following on Twitter so you can sell when liquidity exits.

Winning is winning, regardless of whether you cross legal or moral boundaries. I won't say it's right, but I do acknowledge it's one way (recognition does not equal endorsement).

If your sense of justice starts to burn, then let me warmly welcome you to the crypto world. If you can make money in an unpermissioned way, you can damn well lose money in the same way; the Lazarus Group (North Korean hackers) says hello. From the perspective of a loser's game, you "win" because you don't participate at all, knowing you have no significant and lasting advantage to truly come out on top.

Meme coins are a zero-sum (or possibly negative-sum) game, but that doesn't mean no one can make money. Certainly, some people are making money; the question is, are you the one making money? There's an old saying that if you can't find the sucker at the poker table, then the sucker is probably you, which seems quite fitting here.

Another case, winners in a winner's game:

As a degen, I personally participated in the crazy front lines of "food farming" (note: referring to the DeFi summer period), where I was mining those worthless tokens.

My advantage at the time was the clear understanding that these tokens were worthless, so I recognized that holding these tokens long-term or participating in enticing high APR Pool 2 was suicidal.

So, as a cautious person, I mined a large amount of soon-to-be worthless tokens from Pool 1 and repeatedly withdrew funds from the liquidity pool until they went to zero.

Winners in a loser's game are those who didn't participate in DeFi farming at all and ultimately survived the bull market of 2021, while the competitors self-eliminated.

The Key is Advantage

What I want to say is that in any game, you need an advantage to win.

I know this sounds unfair to ordinary speculators who can't dump tokens at will due to a lack of a fan base, but life is inherently unfair.

The correct response is not to complain about the unfairness to ordinary speculators but to reflect on what to do in reality. Double down, dig deep, and do "due diligence" so that your trench tactics can give you an advantage? I'm not so sure about that.

Immediately, someone will counter my anti-trench cautious mindset, arguing that I am high and mighty because I am already wealthy and no longer need to fight in the trenches for 100x returns.

However, let me remind you clearly that there is on-chain evidence showing I only have 1 Ethereum, so if anyone needs to fight in the trenches, it should be me, my crypto brothers and sisters.

To some extent, we are all playing a dumping game against each other—everyone is just operating on different time cycles.

How to Gain an Advantage?

So, if you are not actually a genius, how do you gain an advantage?

Step back and look at the big picture.

You win by choosing to play only the games where you have an advantage and survive.

Specifically:

Whether the market has peaked or if this is just a bear market trap (by the way, this is the biggest trap I've ever seen) (but at the same time, it won't trap me), surprisingly, is not that important.

What matters most is your ability to survive, no matter what happens. I think this simply involves reserving enough funds so that you are never forced to sell prematurely or forced to participate in a negative expected value Hunger Games where you have no advantage.

A portfolio consisting only of cash and cryptocurrency, if sized appropriately, will allow you to remain "stupid" longer than most without going bankrupt.

This is my lonely fortress.

(Well, at least that's my version. The gambler's version is actually more defensive because you live off the interest of the portfolio, while my version artificially creates a payment that matches your spending by dividing the portfolio into upside risk and defensive funds, which can only last as long as your capital reserves.)

Instead of going 100% into cryptocurrency, why not slightly reduce it, say 90% cryptocurrency and 10% cash? Or any number that suits you, to ensure survival while maintaining exposure to the market.

If the market has peaked—and you hold a lot of cash + other crypto assets—what if the market stagnates for the next four years?

Carefree. You’ll be fine. And most others—probably won’t be.

If this is the biggest bear market trap I've ever seen (by the way, it won't trap me), and you hold a lot of cash + other crypto assets, what will happen? You won't end up with super amazing returns, but rather amazing returns.

Play the world's smallest violin and mourn for only becoming a billionaire instead of a ten-billionaire.

In short, my point is that the real, tangible advantage you can create for yourself to win is simply not dying.

Survive, and you will slowly notice that the people around you often blow their own heads off (is that too early to say?).

Those suited individuals with public identities won't talk about this because they can't. They don't have that advantage. They need to write reports, tweet to be thought leaders, perform below benchmarks, and please investors.

Only individuals like you and me can truly adopt this strategy and leverage this advantage. Sitting in your lonely fortress, telling everyone else to "screw off," doesn't have to be a last resort—it can be a lifestyle choice to enjoy.

The Simple Way to Win

You don't need to do anything fancy or special to win.

You don't need leverage, options, perpetual contracts, futures, etc. In fact, you hardly need to understand or do anything. Abandon all of that. Enjoy the eternal sunshine of a mindless existence.

You just need to avoid doing anything stupid while others are slaughtering each other, financially self-terminating. The weak are eliminated from the herd. The strong survive, and we survive, waiting to die another day.

Just don't die.

If you survive, you have no choice but to succeed.

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