In fact, in another parallel world, the bull market ended at the end of 2023, and liquidity has been retracting since then.

However, the ETF at the beginning of 2024 and the election rally in November 2024 provided BTC with two opportunities for intermediate upward movement. The ETF allowed BTC to jump from the 40k level to the 60k level, and the election pushed BTC up to the 100k level.

Now, the first thing to do is to erase the timeline of the election rally: before the election, it was oscillating slowly downwards at the 60k level, which will be the first support level. It is worth noting that another election stock, Tesla, has already retracted to a position not far from before the election.

There are several possible key turning points ahead:

1/ A financial market incident occurs in the U.S. (refer to the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023) - At that time, the bank reserves were 3 trillion, while now it is 3.3 trillion, still a bit of distance. However, in May and June, the U.S. has a massive amount of debt to refinance, which may trigger liquidity tightening again, leading to a scenario of bank bankruptcies.

2/ A recession occurs in the U.S. The U.S. midterm elections are in November 2026, which is still quite far away, and voters tend to only remember events from the last few months. This means Trump has a whole year this year to maneuver without having to worry about the election for now. In Trump's latest tweet, he mentioned waiting until "September," perhaps the time before September will be the "breaking" time, and only after that will it be the "establishing" time?

3/ Pay attention to the possibility of a meeting between Trump and Xi, but I am not too optimistic about this now. It is quite clear that China and the U.S. are mutual adversaries, and cooperation between them seems unlikely.

Finally, this round of the bull market does not reference the typical four-year cycle of previous bull markets, so there is no need to seek certainty in the bear market.

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