I just looked at the data for all exchanges' #Bitcoin open contracts over the past year. The current open contracts (measured in BTC) are at a relatively low level compared to the past year, basically at the numbers seen after May 2024, and there is a possibility of further decline. This also indicates that investors' risk-averse sentiment is rising, and they are in a state of indecision regarding the price of BTC.

In simpler terms, if investors had a unified directional view, whether bullish or bearish, it would lead to an increase in open contracts, similar to betting on a direction. However, the continuous decline in open contracts suggests that investors are currently confused about the direction, so they are reluctant to bet on it.

To put it even more simply, if the market collectively believes it is a bear market, then a large number of investors will short, and open contracts will not experience a sharp decline. Similarly, if investors believe there will be opportunities for a continued bull market in the future, many will buy on dips.

The current situation is that while the price of $BTC is not experiencing significant fluctuations, a large number of investors are starting to reduce leverage. On one hand, the short-term positive factors for BTC itself, such as Bitcoin strategic reserves, seem to have ended. On the other hand, there is uncertainty regarding macroeconomic data.

In such times, it may be safest to wait and see. Those with substantial resources might still find opportunities to buy BTC on dips.

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