Market Overview
Non-farm employment was disappointing, but Powell is not worried about the economy, leading to a V-shaped reversal in the three major U.S. stock indices during the session. Tariffs have caused pain, with the S&P and Nasdaq dropping over 3% for the week, marking three consecutive weeks of decline, and the S&P recording its largest weekly drop in six months. Broadcom, which reported strong earnings, rose nearly 9%, supporting a rebound in chip stocks, while Nvidia increased nearly 2% but fell nearly 10% for the week. The China concept index rebounded, rising nearly 5% for the week, with "Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto" at least rising over 5%, and Alibaba gaining over 6% for the week.
After the non-farm employment report, U.S. Treasury yields hit a daily low but rose after Powell's speech; the dollar index hit a four-month low, dropping over 3% for the week, marking its largest weekly decline in over two years.
The pan-European stock index ended a ten-week winning streak. Germany is set for a historic fiscal expansion, leading to a sharp drop in German bonds, with the ten-year German bond yield rising over 40 basis points for the week.
After Trump warned of imposing equivalent tariffs in advance, the Canadian dollar hit a daily low. The offshore yuan rose over 200 points to break 7.23 during the session but later turned down. Bitcoin's rebound failed, briefly rising above 91,000 before falling over 5,000 dollars.
In commodities, crude oil rebounded for two days but still fell over 3% for the week, with U.S. oil declining for seven consecutive weeks, marking the longest weekly drop in a year. Spot gold hit a weekly high before turning down but rebounded nearly 2% for the week.
Market Review:
The positive expectations around yesterday's crypto conference were realized, with optimism for a downward breakout after a price triangle consolidation. See the previous article for details.
Yesterday's price movement was consistent with expectations, with a daily range of 7,000 points, peaking at 91,300 and bottoming at 84,500. The highly anticipated crypto conference announced not good news but that out of 400,000 bitcoins, 200,000 have already been sold. This is a clear negative signal, and after the negative news was released, the price quickly fell from 91,000 to below 87,000. The previous article mentioned that 87,000 is a short-term support level. Why is this considered mere verbal positivity? They keep saying they are adding to reserves; if they are adding to reserves, why sell? Adding to reserves should mean buying with real money, not just talk. If they are talking, they should not be selling at the same time. After selling, they still assert that it is being added to reserves. The market does not buy this narrative, and with the data supporting it, the support around 87,000 was broken. The price is currently at the lower boundary of the triangle consolidation!
Yesterday's daily line closed with a large bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows. The price fluctuated actively throughout the day, with significant volatility. The crypto conference scheduled for 2:30 AM was delayed to 4:00 AM, and no shocking news was announced at 4:00 AM. The price remains within the triangle consolidation range!
Market Outlook:
It has been emphasized multiple times that the three trading days of Friday, Saturday, and the weekend are actually a wave of market movement. Global markets are interconnected; when other major markets are closed, the Bitcoin market sees a significant drop in activity and a narrowing of volatility.
The overall thinking remains unchanged, consistent with the ideas in previous articles, from the rapid rebound from 78,000 to 95,000. As we approached 95,000, we advised everyone to liquidate their spot positions and informed them that the rebound was not sustainable. The bearish sentiment is deeply ingrained in our minds. Regardless of any news or data, whether published or not, the market will ultimately move as it should; news only accelerates the movement and does not easily change direction!
It is expected that after the price triangle oscillation ends on Friday, Saturday, and the weekend, there will be a continued significant drop.
For spot trading, regardless of the cryptocurrency, since the rapid rebound from 95,000 began, we have advised everyone to stay out and observe, not to buy in. Contracts do not have specific price expectations but provide clear directional guidance. The volatility is intense, and the expected price can mislead people. Just pay attention to real-time updates during the session.
With significant volatility and rapid market changes, for more real-time price updates and strategies, please pay attention to real-time alerts!
Today is International Women's Day, dedicated to all women:
May you be independent and confident, gentle yet firm; may you hold onto your dreams and bravely chase the light. Happy International Women's Day!
With strength in your heart, remain calm in your hands, and handle things with ease!
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The above analysis and predictions are merely the personal probabilistic forecasts and judgments of the navigator regarding the market. Speculation carries risks; please invest cautiously!
2025.3.8 Navigator of the Crypto Circle
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