The cryptocurrency market is evolving under the influence of macro policies, global liquidity, and regulatory changes. Emerging blockchains and projects are competing around scalability, security, and compliance. The key to the future lies in how to balance returns, risks, and decentralized development.

Author: @ruiixyz

Translation: Baihua Blockchain

Macroeconomic policies determine capital allocation in the long term, while liquidity in the cryptocurrency market flows between casino-style trading, yield farming, and emerging value-oriented investments, despite constant market volatility.

1. Tired of market fluctuations, what should we focus on?

1) Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long term
2) Market trends: Swinging between casino-style trading, yield, and value investing
3) Blockchain: Where is the competitive focus when high TPS (transactions per second) becomes standard?
4) Project selection: Only looking at new and interesting projects

• Innovation in internet infrastructure
• Bridging Web2 and Web3
• Truly making BTC work
• Serving traditional finance (TradFi) to enter the market
• Acting like a "non-crypto" enterprise

2. Policy: Influenced by short-term impulses, but still bullish in the long term

1) Impact of BTC national reserves? The BTC national reserve plan proposed by Trump lacks congressional approval and may be overturned by the next administration. Since the U.S. already holds BTC assets, the direct market impact of this policy is limited, as the government is more likely to allocate BTC from existing assets rather than purchase directly from the market. However, this initiative could have far-reaching implications for corporate and international strategies.
2) Could cryptocurrency reserves dilute BTC's value? If BTC is mixed into other crypto asset reserves, it may weaken its market position. If crypto reserves are positioned as backing for the dollar (which we hope is not the case), it would raise concerns about the stability of the dollar, further driving up interest rates. Currently, Trump's policy seems to be more driven by personal interests.
3) A broader ETF market with more types of products

• stETH ETF is in development, and if approved, it will boost the ETH staking market
• The likelihood of a $SOL ETF launching this year is very high, with more and more "Solana version MicroStrategy" emerging, driving staking interest
• Chinese investors' attention to BTC ETF is rising (but still with huge uncertainty), although regulation remains unclear, compliant custodians have begun to lay out plans. Despite short-term market volatility, funds and talent will gradually flow into the market as macro policies develop.

3. Market: Swinging between casino, yield, and value

Currently, the market mainly has two types of dominant traders:

• Casino gamblers — chasing extreme returns with 1000x leverage in PvP games.
• Yield farmers — seeking stable, low-risk returns. Besides these, traders in between contribute little trading volume, but this situation may change over time.
  1) First type: Gamblers — "Give me a fair casino!"
  The meme coins in the Solana ecosystem once had strong product-market fit (PMF), but a series of "rug pulls," including Trump, Melania, and Libra, along with insider trading, severely damaged market liquidity and, more importantly, undermined the fairness of the casino. Now, decentralized exchanges (DEX) are trying to restore trust through sniper sorting, Dutch auctions, and mandatory community airdrops, hoping to attract trading volume again as the macro environment changes.
  2) Second type: Whales — "Win our trust with security and time"
  Low-risk yield farmers will not take the risk of going to zero for an extra 10% APY (annual percentage yield). Currently, Ethereum still leads in TVL (total value locked) and security history, while other chains are striving to catch up. Sources of yield include DEX token incentives, borrowing fees, hedging, and short-term T-bills, each with different risk levels. The best projects are working hard to find a delicate balance between yield and risk and to convince LPs (liquidity providers) of this.
  3) Third type: Value investors — "Emerging under a clearer regulatory framework"
  The flourishing of legitimate on-chain assets (such as Web2 companies going public on-chain, RWA real-world assets) depends on the clarification of regulations. Once clear regulatory rules are established, value investing will truly take shape — when income buybacks are no longer trivial, align with market capitalization, and tokens have real utility, on-chain can attract genuine value investors.

4. Blockchain: When high TPS becomes standard

1) Solana: From perfect PMF to broader political and market moats
@solana's biggest moat is its excellent market fit (PMF), which is now expanding to political and broader competitive advantages.
Price determines market perception — the SIMD-0228 proposal aims to support SOL prices in the long term by linking staking rates to token issuance. Imagine: 2) SOL ETF → More staking → Lower token issuance → Stronger price stability.
DEXs in the Solana ecosystem are working to solve liquidity depletion and trust issues, while perpetual contract platforms are enhancing performance using Rollup/temporary Rollup (such as @ZetaMarkets, @magicblock). Meanwhile, @ranger_finance is also integrating perpetual contract trading.
The banking, payment, and stablecoin ecosystems are accelerating expansion:

• @meow offers yield-generating U.S. business checking accounts.
• @sphere_labs provides a lower-cost fiat withdrawal solution than Coinbase.
• @Perena__ is building top-tier stablecoin infrastructure.
  Challenges faced
• Maintaining a fair trading environment (casino-style ecosystem)
• Enhancing DeFi liquidity and stability
• Ensuring network security and stability to attract institutional adoption
  3) Hyperliquid: The core moat is its killer application
  @HyperliquidX's biggest moat is its strong core application (killer app).
  Currently, HyperEVM has officially launched, and network revenue comes not only from platform fees and auction fees but also from EVM transaction gas fees. Although this change has not yet fully reflected in token prices, it unlocks new uses for $HYPE (gas fees, borrowing, staking, and yield mechanisms). Additionally, high market cap native assets (such as spot BTC) have finally joined the ecosystem.
  Challenges faced:
• Open ecosystems are hard to maintain — its native DEX and perpetual contract platform compete directly, affecting ecosystem interoperability.
• Security risks — Bybit's multisig mechanism has 4 signers still facing rug pulls, while Hyperliquid only has 2 signers, posing potential security risks.
  4) Monad: Super EVM + open ecosystem moat
  @monad_xyz's moat lies in its Hyper-EVM combined with an open ecosystem.
  Monad's testnet has shown steady growth, with TPS reaching up to 120, and no significant performance degradation. Although the current ecosystem is still in its early stages, maintaining openness is crucial for its development to avoid the excessive centralization of "kingmaker effects" seen in other ecosystems. Currently, the community is achieving organic growth through projects like Molandak NFTs.
  Future outlook: Focus on the development potential of killer applications in DeFi, consumer applications, AI, payments, and more.

5. Project selection: Only looking at novel and interesting ones

                    **1)** **Innovation in Internet Infrastructure**  
                    The scalability of blockchain often requires sacrificing decentralization and security, while **@doublezero** is developing a **universal connection framework compatible with all blockchains** to optimize on-chain data flow.
                    *   Its solution can **pre-filter inbound transactions** before they reach validators, enhancing blockchain processing efficiency.
                    *   At the same time, it **optimizes outbound message routing**, improving cross-chain communication and data transmission.  

                    **2)** **Bridging Web2 and Web3**  
                    Currently, PoW (Proof of Work) companies have successfully gone public, but **PoS (Proof of Stake)** companies have yet to follow suit. Blockchains need **compliant validators with good reputations and track records**.
                    *   The **Validator-as-a-Service** model may serve as a bridge between **compliant public companies** and the **blockchain ecosystem**.  

                    **3)** **Making BTC Truly Work**  
                    On-chain BTC is either **idle and useless**, earning **very low yields** in the borrowing market, or obtaining alternative asset rewards through inflationary incentives.
                    *   **@yieldbasis** is building a **BTC yield platform based on AMM (Automated Market Maker)** to minimize impermanent loss (IL) and truly unlock BTC's value.  

                    **4)** **Serving Incoming TradFi (Traditional Finance)**  
                    Stablecoins remain the **most profitable business in the crypto industry**, but the compliance barriers for **Web2** companies are still high, including **regulatory, on/off-ramps, and security** issues.
                    *   **@BastionPlatform** has obtained a **New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) license** and is actively positioning itself to become a **stablecoin issuer for Web2 giants**.  

                    **5)** **Acting Like a "Non-Crypto" Enterprise**  
                    One of the biggest advantages of the crypto industry is **liquidity**.
                    *   **@megapot_io** is building the world's **largest lottery gaming platform**, with its API serving as both a **user retention tool for Web2 companies** and providing linear growth yields for stablecoin **LPs**.

                                        Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/03/5703.html

                                        Source: https://x.com/ruiixyz/status/1897441239726784953

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